• Ahmed Diriye has led Al-Shabaab since 2014, maintaining its strength through territorial control, coercive recruitment, and an estimated $100 million annual revenue.
• Under Diriye, Al-Shabaab has adapted to U.S. airstrikes and Turkish military support to the Somali government. 
• Driven by Salafi jihadism and loyalty to Al-Qaeda, Diriye has expanded ties with the Houthis, fueling regional instability and maritime insecurity across the Horn of Africa.

Why is Ahmed Diriye HOT sustaining Al-Shabaab’s grip?

Answer: Since 2014, Ahmed Diriye has led Al-Shabaab’s expansion across Somalia by leveraging a strong organisation, territorial control, and a $100 million revenue stream to sustain operations and act as a parallel government.

Ahmed Diriye assumed leadership as the Emir of Al-Shabaab in September 2014. He leads the operations of the Islamist militant group, predominantly active across Somalia and has been extending its influence throughout the Horn of Africa. Under his command, Al-Shabab continues to pursue its core objective of establishing a fundamentalist Islamic state governed by a strict interpretation of Sharia law. 

Al-Shabaab’s strength under Diriye’s sustained control is shaped by four key factors: the group’s robust organisational resilience, effective territorial control, exploitation of regional instabilities, and its diversified financial base. The group maintains its ranks through coercive recruitment tactics involving the coercion of community leaders and parents, ensuring a continuous supply of fighters. By capitalising on societal grievances and widespread distrust in the Somali Federal Government, the group facilitated its campaigns, expansion, and ability to embed itself within local populations. 

Beyond holding direct territory, Al-Shabaab exerts considerable influence across Somalia’s rural hinterland, maintaining its strength despite sustained counter-terrorism efforts. The group exploits the Somali National Army’s (SNA) overstretched resources and chronic issues, including unpaid salaries, poor equipment, corruption, desertions (notably over 1,300 Turkish-trained troops), and infiltration by Al-Shabaab operatives. Meanwhile, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia faces funding shortfalls and a phased withdrawal, reducing critical support. Internal disunity among anti–al-Shabaab actors, driven by clan rivalries and fragmented leadership, further weakens coordinated efforts, enabling Al-Shabaab’s continued resilience and solidifying Ahmed Diriye’s strategic position.

What is changing Ahmed Diriye’s heat level?

Answer: Ahmed Diriye’s influence endures as Al-Shabaab leverages vast revenues, adapts to foreign military pressure, and exploits weak governance to maintain strength and control.

A critical foundation for Al-Shabaab’s enduring strength and sustained activity is its estimated $100 million annual revenue. This is primarily derived from extortion schemes (targeting local businesses, aid organisations, and residents), forced taxation, zakat collection, and illicit trade in goods such as charcoal (despite international bans), livestock, and sugar. Under Ahmed Diriye’s leadership, this robust financial base is meticulously managed, ensuring consistent funding for the group’s operations.

This diverse funding mechanism empowers the group to sustain an estimated 5,000 to 10,000 well-armed fighters, maintain a complex network of operatives, and exert pervasive influence across its areas of operation. The group frequently functions as a parallel governance system that provides certain rudimentary services to local populations, thereby solidifying its control.

External policy shifts, particularly from the United States and Türkiye, directly influence Al-Shabaab’s strategic planning. Under the Trump administration, the US has ramped up airstrikes, with U.S. Africa Command conducting at least 43 strikes in Somalia as of June 2025, with a portion specifically targeting Al-Shabaab. Diriye’s leadership ensures Al-Shabaab remains highly attuned to these external pressures. This surge is linked to concerns about Al-Shabaab’s worrying territorial gains and the broader threat of Islamist militant groups. 

While these strikes aim to degrade Al-Shabaab’s capacity, the group has proven adept at leveraging their consequences. Strikes often rely on patchy human intelligence, increasing the risk of civilian casualties, which are swiftly exploited by Al-Shabaab for propaganda, portraying themselves as defenders against foreign aggression and a weak federal government. Such tactics capitalise on eroding U.S. credibility and actively fuel Al-Shabaab’s recruitment strategies, elevating Diriye’s influence and operational tempo in the face of direct military pressure. 

Meanwhile, Türkiye has emerged as a key military partner for the Somali Federal Government. It has deployed 500 specialized counterterrorism troops, including  300 commandos and 200 drone specialists, along with advanced weaponry like Akinci drones and T-129 attack helicopters. Turkey’s support extends to training thousands of Somali soldiers at Camp Turksom and it maintains a permanent military base in Mogadishu. 

Yet, despite these substantial external interventions to degrade Al-Shabaab, Diriye continues to navigate a complex and dynamic environment. The very necessity of such extensive foreign support, particularly amidst the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia’s funding and troop shortfalls, highlights Al-Shabaab’s persistent strength and adaptive capabilities, keeping Diriye at the centre of a challenging conflict. While Somali government counter-offensives achieved significant gains in 2022, Al-Shabaab swiftly demonstrated marked resilience and strategic adaptability by recapturing areas previously under government control.

What is driving Ahmed Diriye?

Answer: Ahmed Diriye is driven by a commitment to Salafi jihadism and the goal of establishing a Sharia-based Islamic state under his own rule.

Diriye is ideologically committed to establishing a Sharia-based Islamic state across ethnic Somali-inhabited areas in Somalia, Kenya, and Uganda. His continued allegiance to Al-Qaeda, formally declared in 2012, and alignment to the vision of the group’s former leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane, underscore his commitment to this objective of global jihad. 

Al-Shabaab’s ideology is rooted in Salafi jihadism, a doctrine that seeks to return to the practices of early Islam and views the conflict in Somalia as part of a broader global struggle against perceived enemies of Islam. This ideological framework portrays the Somali government as an illegitimate apostate authority beholden to foreign powers. It serves as a powerful unifying force within the organisation and a key recruitment tool, providing Diriye with religious legitimacy and solidifying his role as both spiritual and strategic leader.

Beyond ideology, Diriye’s drive is also rooted in the political imperative to consolidate and maintain his authority within Al-Shabaab. Following the 2014 death of Ahmed Abdi Godane, Al-Shabaab’s former emir who had centralised power and formally aligned the group with Al-Qaeda, Diriye consolidated power by preserving territorial control in parts of south-central Somalia and upholding the group’s parallel governance systems. 

Recent strategic adaptations include reported expanded ties with the Houthis for advanced weapons and training. In exchange, Al-Shabaab has increased piracy and arms smuggling activities. These developments enhance the group’s capabilities, reinforce Diriye’s power, and support its broader goal of delegitimising the Somali state and expanding territorial influence.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Under Ahmed Diriye, Al-Shabaab’s persistence fuels insecurity and humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa, demanding sustained international and regional action for lasting stability.

Al-Shabaab’s persistent presence, underscored by its ability to reclaim contested territories and exploit vulnerabilities in national and regional security operations, directly fuels pervasive instability within Somalia. This internal conflict enables cross-border incursions and the spread of Al-Shabaab’s Islamist ideology into neighbouring countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda, which have historically experienced Al-Shabaab’s attacks. This underscores that Somalia’s security challenges are not contained within its borders but reverberate across the Horn of Africa, demanding sustained international engagement and deeper regional cooperation.

The protracted conflict, coupled with the group’s destabilising actions, significantly contributes to ongoing humanitarian crises, notably displacing over 4 million individuals in Somalia by late 2024. Such widespread displacement and resultant refugee flows then severely strain the resources and stability of neighbouring Horn of Africa states. 

Al-Shabaab’s reported expanding ties with the Houthis, this evolving involvement in transnational organised crime directly fuels maritime insecurity in a region critical for international shipping corridors. As a result, elevated shipping costs, particularly from Red Sea disruptions, threaten to drive up the price of goods across African markets.