• Despite Ramaphosa’s successful re-election in May, his party has failed to secure a parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994, compelling them to form a coalition government.
• The coalition government created has conflicting views on many sectors, such as economy and social welfare, which is a cause of parliamentary tensions.
• Without a parliamentary majority, Ramaphosa’s government is facing numerous roadblocks in achieving their policy and governance objectives.

Why is Cyril Ramaphosa MILD?

Answer: Recent election results show that President Ramaphosa has seen his and his party’s popularity decline amid mounting internal challenges, particularly related to the economy and social welfare.

For the first time since 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has failed to win the majority in the government. Indeed, they secured 40% of the seats which pushed the government to adopt a coalition. 

Even though the ANC still is the party with the most seats, they need to share their power with the other parties. Among these other parties, there is the Democratic Alliance (DA) which secured 21% of the votes, while uMkhonto weSizwe(MK) the new party formed by ex-president Jacob Zuma scored 15% of seats.

The coalition government is created between eleven parties, seven of which include cabinet positions. Nonetheless, most of the power is concentrated between ANC and DA. The distribution of power has been also conducted through disposition of different ministries across parties. 

For instance the leader of the DA, John Steenhuisen will become the Minister of Agriculture, and his party will also occupy the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Meanwhile, Ramaphosa’s party will keep key ministerial sectors, including Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Defense.

This political situation has made ANC’s political maneuvers significantly more limited than in the past. One of the biggest topics of contention between the parties is their different economic agenda. 

Indeed, the ANC wants to focus on job creation through public employment programs in the public, small business, and social sectors. In contrast, the DA wants to prioritize tax reform to stimulate investment and job creation, pledging no new taxes and aiming to broaden the tax base. While the ANC emphasizes state-driven solutions, the DA leans toward market-driven economic growth.

Despite all of the internal challenges that the country is facing right now, Cyril Ramaphosa is still a key player in South African politics. He is not only the leader of the party with the most seats in the parliament, but also he occupied important positions in international organizations fostering South Africa’s high international position. This included being a chairperson for the African Union and even its 18th President  during the pandemic.

What is changing Cyril Ramaphosa’s heat level? 

Answer: This electoral loss can be attributed to economic stagnation and a corruption scandal involving Ramaphosa, both of which have fueled public grievances and undermine his credibility as a leader.

One of the reasons that cost Ramaphosa his parliamentary majority was his government’s failure to fulfill key promises. A central pledge was to ensure a swift economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, along with reducing inequality within the country. 

South Africa has experienced a very low economic growth of 0.6% in 2023. Moreover, unemployment has not decreased, it is even projected to increase in the next few years. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.8% in the last quarter and now stands at 32.9%, which is disastrous for the economy.

Furthermore, according to the Wits University experiences the highest inequality rate in the world, scoring 0.67 in the Gini coefficient, which did not significantly decrease throughout ANC’s rule. Nonetheless, none of these goals were met in recent years, which not only cost ANC’s seats in the government in the 2024 general elections , but also Ramaphosa’s credibility as a leader. 

Another element that undermined Ramaphosa’s credibility to lead the country is the Phala Phala Affair, a corruption scandal  concerning a theft of $4m in early 2020. While he survived an impeachment process, the scandal severely tarnished his reputation. All of these issues caused internal instability, which was manifested through protests prevailing until now, which ultimately led to down electoral turnout for the party. 

What is driving Cyril Ramaphosa?

Answer: Ramaphosa’s main motivations include the economic recovery and political goals to secure re-election, as well as ensuring the long-term success of the ANC.

After the 2024 failure to secure the majority in the government by the ANC, Ramaphosa’s main motivation is getting reelected through restoring the credibility in his party. 

In order to achieve the parliamentary majority again the party needs to address certain grievances. First of all, the sector of the economy, especially post-pandemic challenges, is the main focus of Ramaphosa right now as a leader. One of the examples to achieve economic stability is the policy of Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan (EERP), presented by the government initially in 2020 and again in 2024. 

Despite its failures so far, the government of South Africa is putting in the efforts to tackle unemployment, decrease poverty, and eliminate inequality, such as targeting corruption and provision of access to electricity to all.

Ramaphosa is focused on forging new economic alliances to strengthen South Africa’s economy and deliver on his promises. A key example is the recent developments in the energy sector, where he is advancing a green hydrogen strategy in collaboration with Germany. This move signals not only a shift towards a greener energy mix for South Africa but also the deepening of diplomatic and economic ties with Germany.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Ramaphosa’s results in the election reflect a demand for change from the population, with the rise of parties like MK signaling and a shift towards populist policies.

One of the key challenges for the new administration will be to revitalize the country’s economy to address pressing social needs while steering public finances onto a more sustainable path. Restoring confidence will require improving spending efficiency and increasing government tax revenues. Failure to do so could trigger a major political shift, as reflected in the recent South African elections, where the population’s demand for change became clear. 

The growing popularity of parties like MK reflects a desire for a shift in the country’s ideological, social, and economic direction. MK’s rise signals a call for populist policies addressing pressing issues like the urban-rural divide, which the South African electorate believes that the ANC has failed to resolve. This electoral shift demonstrates that South Africans are seeking alternatives to the status quo, showing their dissatisfaction with the ANC.