- Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un’s mutually beneficial relationship has paved the way for a “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement.
- Alongside economic commitments, the treaty includes a mutual defense clause, increasing North Korea’s deterring power.
- As tensions increase in the Asia-Pacific, North Korea and Russia continue trading munitions for food and oil.
Why is Putin in camaraderie with Kim Jong-un?
Answer: Putin and Kim Jong-un are collaborating in a climate of shared Western alienation.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin authorised his army’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, most Western nations responded with broad economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, condemning Russia. On the other hand, North Korea was one of five UN member states that voted against the adoption of General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1, which deplored Moscow’s invasion.
Days after the vote, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un became one of the only leaders to recognise the independence of the Russia-backed Donetsk and Luhansk breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine. Since then, diplomatic relations between the two countries have only deepened. By contrast, past Russo-North Korean relations were cold. Before their first summit in 2019, the Putin and Kim Jong-un leaders had never met. Additionally, from 2006 to 2017, Moscow voted against Pyongyang in nine major UN Security Council Resolutions.
Indeed, in September 2023, Kim Jong-un visited Russia’s Far East, marking their second Russian summit. This trip focused on military hardware and aerospace technology. Putin took Kim Jong-un to see Russia’s Pacific Fleet, as well as aviation factories and the Vostochny Cosmodrome spaceport. During his visit, Kim Jong-un expressed his “full and unconditional support” for Putin, whom, he states, is standing up to “hegemonic forces” in the West.
Following the meeting, Russo-North Korean trade markedly increased, with Pyongyang exchanging more than three million artillery shells for Russian food and oil, between September 2023 and February 2024.. While bilateral trade of this kind had been increasing since November 2022, the surge seen after Putin and Kim’s Far East meeting surpassed the UN-imposed limits of 500,000 barrels per year. In March 2024, Russia shipped over 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum, according to the White House, and could continue indefinitely.
This fits the broader theme of the two leaders supporting each other in evading sanctions. This March, Putin’s administration vetoed a Security Council Resolution renewing a “Panel of Experts’s” mandate to ensure Pyongyang was complying with its UN-sanctioned nuclear non-proliferation regime.
What does Putin want?
Answer: Putin wants to come out victorious from his war effort in Ukraine, building up alliances to resist Western opposition.
The Russo-Ukrainian War has become one of attrition, with Russia now edging forward after months of virtual stalemate. Vladimir Putin wants to end this expensive military conflict with territorial gain. Last month, the Russian President proposed a cease-fire plan that promised the end of his country’s hostilities in exchange for sovereignty over Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia territories, which Moscow partly controls.
This proposal was rejected by Ukraine. Thus, Putin seeks to increase his leverage, with the objective of coercing Kyiv into accepting a similar agreement. In doing so, Putin would fulfil his aim to stop NATO’s “enlargement” eastward. Simply put, if Russia succeeds in annexing those eastern Ukrainian regions, it would guarantee a greater distance between NATO and Moscow, fulfilling some of the Kremlin’s security objectives even if post-war Ukraine opts to join the organization.
To aid him in these efforts, Putin needs allies and trading partners after being sanctioned by the West, especially considering Russia’s high dependency on Chinese and Indian oil imports at discounted rates. With North Korea as an alternative oil importer, Putin would have more sway in bilateral negotiations. If demand for Russia’s petroleum were to increase, Putin could afford to raise export prices.
What does Kim Jong-un want?
Answer: Kim Jong-un wants to safeguard North Korea’s economic and military security.
North Korea’s economy is currently in retrograde. Agricultural production has been on the decline since 2022. That year, heavy summer rainfall and a lack of modern farming technology led to a 4% decrease in agricultural production. Combined with a collective agriculture system that prioritizes the military and political elite’s nutrition above the rest, famines are having their most marked effect on North Korea’s farmers.
In somewhat of a vicious cycle, some farmers remain too hungry to work, which exacerbates the country’s food shortages, as rice production continues to decrease. With his country also suffering from economic sanctions, Kim Jong-Un needs to import food and raw materials to pump life into the North Korean economy. One of Pyongyang’s main economic objectives is also to increase tourism, planning to expand existing tourist exchanges with Russia and China.
Kim Jong-un also wants to respond to a threatening regional environment. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, coupled with territorial tensions in the South China Sea, has further polarised Northeast Asia. A symptom of this is deepening trilateral, security-oriented collaboration between the leaders of South Korea, Japan, and the United States. Kim Jong-un has denounced this cooperation as an “Asian NATO” structured against North Korea. In response, the Supreme Leader seeks to increase his country’s deterrence, both nuclear and conventional.
What is Putin doing?
Answer: Putin signed a comprehensive agreement with Kim Jong-un, pledging mutual defence and increased investments
On 19 June, Vladimir Putin travelled to North Korea to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement with Kim Jong-un, in his first official state visit since July 2000. Notably, the treaty includes a mutual defence clause, stating that, if either of the two parties “is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay.” The two sides also agreed to increase mutual investment and boost bilateral economic ties in the fields of agriculture, tourism, and space technology.
This treaty officializes the budding Russo-North Korean relationship into a signed document, ensuring that its trajectory will continue into the near future. The mutual defense clause grants both leaders increased deterrence in the face of security threats in Western Europe and East Asia, while the economic dimension guarantees them a major trade partner that disregards Western sanctions.
Who is winning and what about you?
Answer: Putin and Kim Jong-un are both winners of this agreement, yet Kim benefits more from it.
This agreement is a testament to Putin’s pressing need for weapons in order to continue his war effort in Ukraine. North Korea’s economy has struggled throughout Putin’s time in the Kremlin, and Kim Jong-un has always needed tighter alliances. It is Putin’s relative international isolation, economic sanctions, and a lack of munitions, that pushed him into making an agreement with Kim Jong-un at this time.
Kim Jong-un used this leverage to craft an agreement that worked more in his favour than Putin’s. For one, the Supreme Leader has secured a more vocal ally in the UN’s Security Council. While both China and Russia own veto privileges, China has shown reluctance concerning Sino-North Korean defense commitments. Moscow, now alienated by the West, is more likely to continue protecting North Korean interests in the Security Council, as the mutual defense clause turns Kim Jong-un’s security interests into Putin’s.
With his pact with Putin, Kim Jong-un not only increased North Korea’s nuclear and conventional deterrence, but he will also acquire key Russian technological know-how for North Korea’s space program. In the last year, Pyongyang’s launches of reconnaissance satellites have failed, and Moscow’s technical help promises to fix that. This type of spacecraft can be used to foresee oncoming attacks, as well as disrupt other countries’ satellite-reliant telecommunication, granting Kim Jong-un another layer of deterrence and defense.
Meanwhile, Putin’s Russia already possesses this technology, and the mutual defense clause does not cover the pre-existing conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, any conflict North Korea starts would imply Russian participation, locking Putin into another costly war. With that said, the agreement guarantees the continued flow of North Korean weapons into Russia, allowing Putin to continue his war effort in Eastern Europe.
The Russo-North Korean agreement has exacerbated tensions in the Asia-Pacific. Russia has now inserted itself into regional security dynamics with an agreement that excludes China. Beijing is bound to be distressed by this development, as it prioritises stability in Northeast Asia. At the same time, US officials fear Russia’s technological assistance could enhance North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, seeing the agreement as an affront to Washington and its allies, as Japan and the Philippines also deepen defense ties.
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