• Orsi’s cautious start reflects a presidency focused on institutional balance rather than rapid reform, resulting in a mild political temperature.
• A divided legislature and early resignations from ministers have slowed governance and reform efforts.
• His rhetoric aims to continue Uruguay’s consensus-based politics at a time of extreme ideological polarisation in the region.

Why is Yamandú Orsi’s temperature MILD?

Answer: Orsi begins his term with legitimacy, stability, and expectations around his reform agenda, despite few concrete measures.

Yamandú Orsi was elected Uruguayan president in November 2024 with 49,8% of the votes, defeating the center-right ruling coalition candidate Álvaro Delgado. His victory consolidated the “Frente Amplio” or Broad Front’s return to power and marked the return of a left-wing president in Uruguay after a five-year absence. 

His administration faces a fragmented legislature due to a lack of a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, holding 48 out of 99 seats, and a narrow majority in the Senate with 16 seats out of 30. In contrast, the previous governments had a majority in both chambers. The previous president, Louis Lacalle Pou, had ended 15 years of left-wing rule under the Frente Amplio rule, but his coalition, Frente Amplio, gradually lost support amid frustration with insecurity, rising living costs, and limited economic improvements. 

Orsi’s first 100 days have been marked by caution, with few concrete measures beyond laying the groundwork for the 2026–2030 Budget Law and the creation of a National Crime and Drug Trafficking Combat System aiming at responding to security concerns raised during the last government. Orsi has also promoted the creation of a Ministry of Justice and Human Rights to centralise prison management and justice policies. 

The proposal still persists as a sensible topic across Uruguayan politics as the media associate the centralisation with a reduction in the separation of powers that resembles the previous Uruguayan dictatorship. Orsi, however, stresses that he will only advance the project if a minimum agreement in parliament is reached. This position reflects his strategic caution and shows that the seek for consensus undermines governmental action. Orsi’s limited ability to advance governance topics prevents him from generating stronger political momentum.

What is changing Orsi’s heat level?

Answer: A lack of a legislative majority, early resignations, and the Budget Law negotiations delayed his agenda while defying his future momentum.

The National Budget Bill for the 2025–2029 period has been presented and approved by the Parliament. As the inaugural act of a new administration in Uruguay, it occupied 70 of Orsi’s first 100 days, shaping the government’s fiscal capacity and outlining how  campaign promises may translate into policy. The law’s approval process and subsequent implementation will continue testing Orsi’s ability to negotiate across party lines 

Uruguay’s new administration entered office without a parliamentary majority and also faced the departure of two officials from the Ministry of Environment. The resignation of Housing Minister Cecilia Cairo, only 48 days into the administration, following property tax irregularities. Furthermore, the departure from the Ministry of Environment due to other opportunities and internal disagreements, has raised questions about cohesion within his cabinet. These early challenges reinforced the perception of a government in transition rather than one ready to implement reforms.

Orsi’s communication strategy has yet to define a strong national narrative. Analysts point out that his public image is still shaped by caution and observation, which, while consistent with his style, contributes to a sense of immobility. 

The departmental campaign further limited the government’s capacity to focus on national priorities during the initial phase. The departmental elections across the 19 departments provided a crucial test of credibility that shapes the Broad Front’s capacity to govern effectively. 

The party secured the two most populous departaments, and only gained one department from the opposition, winning in 4 departments and 32 municipalities. However, the coalition did not expand its reach to the opposition in the interior and the National Party secured 13 departments and 83 out of the 136 municipalities in the country. The interaction between legislative fragmentation, cabinet instability and uneven territorial results illustrates how Orsi’s first year as president has been defined more by adjustment than by acceleration.

What is driving Yamandú Orsi?

Answer: He is driven by social security reforms, economic modernisation, trade diversification and renewable energy initiatives.

Orsi’s agenda includes reforms to the social security system, including lowering the retirement age. Also, the higher growth of the economy to foster better jobs, especially for the discontent youth. These reforms are within the Budget law and they aim to strengthen social mobility and inclusion while addressing structural demographic challenges, including population ageing and regional disparities.

In a recent speech, at the bicentennial commemoration of Uruguay’s declaration of independence, Orsi emphasised the current challenges that his administration will have to face. One of them is the care for the elderly and the protection of children and adolescents, which is creating a demographic challenge in the country. Uruguay’s macroeconomic position stability, marked by low sovereign risk, high investment ratings, and consistent institutional trust, shapes both the possibilities and constraints of its administration. 

These structural conditions foster continuity in economic management while limiting the space for expansive fiscal policy. Orsi’s challenge lies in advancing social reform without jeopardising fiscal prudence, an equilibrium that defines his notion of “balanced modernisation.” 

Economically, his government seeks to consolidate Uruguay’s role as a competitive and innovative economy through digitalisation, infrastructure development, and export diversification. In parallel, Orsi’s economic agenda integrates sustainability as a pillar of competitiveness, with plans to expand renewable energy production and attract investment in green hydrogen, consolidating the country’s leadership in the environmental field.

Regarding foreign policies, Orsi has articulated a doctrine of pragmatic diversification, aimed at maintaining Uruguay’s autonomy through balanced engagement with major partners. His administration advocates the strengthening of economic ties with China within the Mercosur framework, while sustaining cooperative relations with the United States in security and trade. This diplomatic strategy reflects Uruguay’s broader aspiration to project itself as a bridge-builder capable of maintaining equidistance in an increasingly polarised international environment.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Orsi’s cautious approach reflects Uruguay’s political culture of consensus, stability, and gradual reform.

Whether he is capable of exerting effective governance will be a key test for the left to maintain the Uruguayan record of consensus-driven politics, often referred to as “institucionalismo”. The need to reach agreement under a minority government and the return of the left in the country has led the media to associate Orsi with the recently deceased José Mujica as his leadership is described as cautious and observant. 

The country’s political culture is characterised by strong institutional trust, widespread support for democracy, and a preference for stability and incremental change, gaining the nickname of “the Switzerland of Latin America”. These cultural traits constrain ambitious reforms and shape how politicians govern. For citizens, this means that policy change is likely to be incremental, predictable, and the product of legislative negotiation. For external stakeholders, Uruguay offers a model of political continuity and institutional reliability that is increasingly rare in the region. 

Orsi’s approach stands in stark contrast to the wave of polarisation and radical populism that has swept across Latin America and Europe in recent years. From Jair Bolsonaro’s populism in Brazil, which intensified controversies surrounding welfare policies and increased polarisation regarding human rights law, to Javier Milei’s far-right government in Argentina. 
This strategy is consistent with Uruguay’s broader political culture, which combines strong institutional trust and a preference for gradual reforms. As Orsi himself has observed, Uruguayans are “quite conservative” and not prone to abrupt transformations. This cautious pragmatism reflects a society that ranks among the world’s strongest democracies and values incremental change over disruption.