Lula is getting COLD as his deforestation policy faces political obstacles

  • While Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has significantly decreased the rate of deforestation in the Amazon, many doubts are rising about his commitment to environmental protection, a key aspect of his electoral promises
  • State-level corruption is significantly curbing the effects of the policies that have been put into place, while lack of funding prevents new and improving ones from being realized 
  • The President faces additional constraints from the opposition-led Congress as well as from the law enforcement and military
Lula da Silva
President of Brazil Lula da Silva

Why is Lula’s level Cold?

Answer: While the President has achieved significant results in curbing deforestation, his policies have been limited by political factors and often lack general cohesiveness. 

During the elections of 2023, one of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s key electoral promises was to push for more environmental reforms once elected. This was extremely relevant for many Brazilian cleavages, especially climate-conscious groups and advocates for indigenous rights. These groups became essential parts of Lula’s electorate.

Lula’s environmental promises included a pledge to end deforestation by 2030, an ambitious goal aimed at establishing Brazil as a global climate leader. Lula, in his Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAm), proposed boosting the use of intelligence and satellite images to fight illegal extractive activities. The Plan also proposed creating a system of certificates for agriculture to ensure regularization of land use and allow monitoring of forest management, to be checked against financial intelligence. Furthermore, Lula emphasized increased protection for Indigenous people, essential for the Amazon’s conservation and well-being, and prioritizing environmental protection in his administration’s work.

Lula’s administration has achieved several significant results in environmental protection during his first year in office. Deforestation rates fell by 50%, and tree cover loss in Indigenous territories was reduced by 73%. Politically, Brazil saw the creation of a Ministry for Indigenous Rights, headed by an Indigenous woman, and the re-establishment of many environmental agencies, albeit often lacking adequate funding. These fundamental agencies had been substantially defunded or dismantled by the previous Bolsonaro administration. Lula also increased cooperation among different state levels to address the administrative void that allowed much illegal extractive activity to go unpunished.

In stark contrast, former president Jair Bolsonaro had alienated many of these voters with his extreme extractive policy. Under Bolsonaro’s administration, the Amazon lost 35,000 km2 of intact forest annually, with logging expanding by 12% in 2022 alone, often without regard for the environment and indigenous communities. Additionally, Brazilian institutional protection of the environment suffered severe damage, and activism faced significant opposition. These drastic policies led to waves of protests across the country, reflecting widespread voter discontent.

However, one year into Lula’s presidency, environmentally conscious voters are doubting Lula’s promises as well. Despite his commitments, environmental agencies have faced significant strikes due to underfunding, particularly in crucial fire-fighting agencies. The Amazon Fund, a primary agency for Amazon protection which rests on international funding, has seen insufficient or ineffective outreach from Lula’s administration.

Environmental activists also argue that the administration has tokenized Amazon protection as the symbol for broader environmental conservation. Meanwhile, the Cerrado savanna, the Amazon’s southern neighbour, suffered its worst devastation since 2016. The increased monitoring of illegal activities in the Amazon has pushed unlawful soy plantations and cattle ranching into this critical biosphere.

Indigenous people and their rights remain under threat. The Brazilian congress, hostile to the new administration, passed a law complicating the approval of new Indigenous protected lands. The law requires Indigenous people to provide evidence of their presence before October 5, 1988, the enactment date of the current Constitution, which is nearly impossible for most populations. Additionally, Indigenous people and environmental activists continue to face high levels of violence, often linked to organized crime, which is not effectively prosecuted.

All in all, one of the first cleavages to support Lula is unsatisfied with Lula’s results, showing discontent with the president. While the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAm) has brought significant changes, the overall choices of the administration were misaligned with the promises that were so important for many of Lula’s voters. For these reasons, Lula’s heat level is still considered cold, but not freezing.

What is changing Lula’s heat level?

Answer: Lula’s environmental goals are constrained by organized crime, law enforcement still loyal to Bolsonaro and a Congress heavily influenced by agribusinesses.

With almost 90% of tree loss being illegal, tackling deforestation is more about fighting crime than policy change.

Illegal gold mining and logging have pushed unregulated deforestation at an industrial level, often within previously poorly explored indigenous lands and in obvious disregard for social and environmental standards. However, the agricultural businesses have also deeply contributed to the stripping of indigenous land and primary forest through land-grabbing.

The first issue that Lula faces is that the law enforcement needed to engage in this war against criminal organizations has severe limitations on funding and support.

In order to deal with these challenges, Lula has promised an international policing force in the Amazon to keep these criminal activities at bay, supported by the Amazon fund. The fund is however already stretched, covering over 650 projects from development to fire control. Additionally, its reliance on international donations might make it rather susceptible to the instability that has characterised these past years. 


An additional constraint that Lula faces is the capillarity reached by the criminal organizations responsible for the damage. Under Bolsonaro’s lack of interest in prosecution, these organizations were able to upscale their operations and collude with local police forces, making control efforts more costly.

Therefore, the funding necessary for such a law enforcement project to be effective must be long-term, reliable and sustained, which may prove difficult under these circumstances.

Finally, Lula’s policy is far from being unanimously sustained both by the law enforcement agents and his own colleagues in Brasilia. The Brazilian Congress has proven to be both conservative and influenced by lobbying groups, especially those linked with the agribusiness sector. Regulations to the industry, so reliant on deforestation for its expansion, are therefore highly ostracized.

But the policies that Lula has put in place in the last year to curb these issues have so far been opposed not only by Congress but also by law enforcement. The investigations on the attempted coup by Bolsonaro supporters highlighted how numerous elements of the police were involved, casting doubts on the loyalty of law enforcement to the new government.

This plausible lack of commitment adds to the pre-existing problems of corruption of local authorities by organized crime, resulting in a lack of cooperation between the President and his law enforcement. Lula’s deforestation goal therefore faces many structural obstacles in its realization, significantly slowing down and reducing its impact.

What is driving Lula?

Answer: President Lula da Silva has to reconcile his ideals and previous political inclinations to support both his constituencies and his international status, all while avoiding alienation of voters towards a rising right-wing

Lula’s political career has been underpinned by a developmentalist logic, with his main focuses being the interest of workers, job security and social policies. These ideals, fundamental for both Lula and his voters, are sometimes in conflict with the economic transition on which high degrees of environmental protection often rests.

In particular, Lula’s administration has continued agreements with oil companies and pushed forward projects for building infrastructures. These plans include the BR-319 upgrade, which is supposed to facilitate oil and gas exploration deep inside the forest. All these policies go in the opposite direction to Lula’s environmental commitments.

However, when conservation efforts are weakened by Lula’s developmental ideas, the president may risk losing national and international support. Indigenous people, who suffer the most due to deforestation, have been great supporters of Lula, as well as environmentalist groups. A failure to live up to his promises may alienate this electorate from his party, the Workers’ Party. This is particularly concerning in view of a weak party leadership and a rising “Bolsonarism”.  

The local elections that will take place in Oct 2024 in major cities will be an important measure of the incumbent’s current support. Many constituencies will likely be highly contested, and polls have highlighted substantial dissatisfaction within the Brazilian public. 

Lastly, the new president has gained much international respect and funds over his mitigation promises, with Brazil being called the climate leader of Latin America. And with land use change, mostly deforestation, accounting for 74% of the country’s emissions, failing to succeed may be a great loss in reputation. The international attention on Brazil will culminate at the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference that will be held in the Amazonian city of Belém do Pará. 

Here, Lula is expected to display not only his achievements on deforestation but also a cohesive and actionable plan, ridden for the enforcement problems his government has faced until now. 

The same holds for the recent announcement of collaborative plans with the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero. While the coalition hasn’t committed to a value for the investment, which plans to boost renewables and limit deforestation, to gather financiers and secure them, Lula must show the reliability and effectiveness of the government. 

Scaling down or going back on his environmental commitments may prove detrimental for both national and international support.

What does it mean for you?

Answer: The fate of the Amazon and Brazilian environmental politics is pivotal to understanding the possible future of global efforts for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Brazilian efforts to tackle deforestation are pivotal on many scales, from local elections to global climate change. 

Nationally, keeping true to his electoral promises is a useful asset for Lula under the currently contested political environment in Brazil. Even if they do not directly affect the federal level, the coming election has been described as a proxy battle between the former and incumbent presidents.

Within this competition, the requirements for environmental platforms vary from cities to rural areas but are always a necessary part of the candidate’s campaign.

In the next months, Lula needs to signal the credibility of the Worker’s Party to his electorate, especially as he’s facing rising dissatisfaction. He, and consequently his party, need to be seen as an effective actor of change able to align moral values, such as the protection of the environment, with economic growth and development.

Moreover, if Lula’s government was able to successfully implement this nexus between economic development and high degrees of environmental protection, Brazil could become a model of green transition. Until now, the economy, which is the largest of South America, has mainly relied on increasing quantities of labour and land, mirrored also in the relevance of the extractive and agricultural industries. 

A green transition would require substantive change in the labour force, with the consequent investment in education, as well as better infrastructures. Such a shift, from resource-hungry towards a low-carbon productivity-led growth model, within an economy worth $3.967 trillion, is unprecedented, but significant progress may be within Lula’s reach if he stays true to his promises.