• In March 2024, Shehbaz Sharif landed another term as Prime Minister albeit accusations of electoral interference and Imran Khan’s party winning the most seats.
• The military continues to dominate national and foreign affairs, with Sharif leveraging its support to maintain hold on power, and working in unison to fend off the opposition. 
• Pakistan faces ongoing economic issues, and a politically volatile climate exacerbated by persistent security concerns.

Why is Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif HOT?

Answer: Despite ongoing political challenges, Sharif has succeeded in securing another term in power, continuing to leverage the mutually-beneficial relationship with Pakistan’s military establishment working to keep the opposition sidelined.

Pakistan’s political landscape has been traditionally dominated by two political dynasties: Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Within this environment, the military continues to play a central role in influencing both domestic and foreign affairs, requiring political parties to rely on the military not only for their backing, but also for their political survival.  

Either through confrontation or cooperation, the President, Prime Minister, and Chief of Army Stuff (COAS) – the troika – have often worked with or against each other, with two often working in tandem against the third. The COAS holds the most power, with the head of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency in second place. 

The current Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is arguably the most pro-military leader in Pakistan’s recent history. The relationship between the PMLN and the military is both strong and mutually beneficial, working in tandem to contain the opposition and preventing the former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s PTI party from coming back to power. 

Khan is still a prominent figure in Pakistan’s politics despite his ousting and imprisonment. In power, Khan began propagating an anti-establishment agenda that manifested itself in rejecting the power of the military and the continuation of dynastic politics. This would ultimately lead to his political downfall.

His party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) remains influential. Most recent polls suggest higher approval ratings for Khan at 57% compared to 52% for Sharif. Despite alleged electoral interference in February’s 2024 elections, opposition crackdowns, and even the revoking of the PTI’s political status that forced PTI members to run as independents, the PTI won the most seats with 97 seats out of 265. The PMLN came in second with 74 seats, and the PPP with 54 seats, forcing the two into a coalition. 

Pakistan is facing economic problems that exacerbate the political situation by adding to anti-establishment opposition sentiment. Pakistan’s public debt, now exceeding $130bn, has risen 27% from last year. The State Bank of Pakistan reports that it is due to pay back almost $29bn in external debt. Additionally, 40% of the population live below the poverty line.  

Likewise, Pakistan continues to grapple with security concerns related to the issue of the contested Kashmir region, and the threat of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which since its inception in 2007 has been conducting massive attacks on Pakistani soil. The militant Islamist group operates in tribal areas along the Durand Line over which Islamabad lacks direct administrative control. 

Despite Pakistan’s uncertain political, security, and economic climate, Sharif continues to enjoy the military’s backing contributing to his ability to stay in power, despite Khan’s political legacy continuing to present many challenges to Pakistan’s status quo.

What is changing Sharif’s heat level?

Answer: Sharif’s heat level is rising as he secures much-needed economic relief, continuing to prioritise foreign investment to revive Pakistan’s economy which can act as means of mitigating security and political challenges, hence strengthening the political and military establishment.

Sharif has managed to secure another IMF loan for the country totalling to 7 billion dollars. He continues to emphasise economic relations with external actors as evident in his visits to China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in his attempts to prompt FDI into the country. He was also behind the creation of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in June 2023 that promotes investment in Pakistan. It is chaired by the Prime Minister with members including federal ministers, provincial chiefs and the COAS. Notably, this gives the military a say in the running of Pakistan’s economy, with the SIFC acting as another extension of power of the military.  

China remains the biggest investor in Pakistan, and the two countries have witnessed an increase in relations. Sharif continues to push for further expansion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the country. Currently, Beijing  is constructing a 3,000km long economic corridor which aims to connect China’s Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Arabian sea. Others, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain hesitant about establishing concrete plans in Pakistan for various long-term investment projects, citing security concerns and Pakistan’s internal political instability as deterring factors. 

Pakistan’s economy has also placed limits against the military’s options in tackling the TTP threat, preventing the military from engaging in a high-risk intensity campaign into the TTP controlled areas, limiting the military to targeted strikes and defensive actions in Pakistan. If Sharif is successful in consolidating a path to economic recovery for Pakistan, the military will be less restricted in its capacity against the TTP.

What is driving Sharif?

Answer: Sharif is driven by a desire to remain in power, leveraging the military’s reciprocal support, hence maintaining the status quo in order to achieve this goal.

For Sharif to potentially succeed as becoming the first-ever Prime Minister to survive a full term, it is in his interests to pursue a continuation of Pakistan’s dynastic politics and maintain the status quo. Within this environment, Sharif and his family are to be guaranteed a seat at the table. 

Sharif, who was chief minister of the Punjab province, the largest and richest in Pakistan, will be eager to emphasise economic improvement. In Punjab, he undertook various projects such as the development of the communication and transport systems, which gained him a positive reputation as an effective administrator. Sharif remains keen to project himself in this regard, aiming to prove that Pakistan’s economy will fare well under his leadership due to his previous economic track record. Leveraging the significant reciprocal support he enjoys from the military is key in consolidating this goal. 

Sharif must keep in mind the issue of preventing political stalemate and disagreement so that the military does not step in and seize power as it has done in the past, which risks contributing to a deterioration of the domestic political situation. Despite the fact that the government has arguably failed to eliminate the opposition, it has continued to quell protests, often responding to them with violent measures, and has been able to contain the opposition to some extent. 

Whether or not Sharif’s domestic popularity is high or not is not a major issue since he continues to enjoy the military’s support which wields significant power within Pakistan’s political landscape. This will remain contingent on the success of the military’s ability, and the overall ability of the government and security establishment to keep the opposition at bay.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Despite some economic recovery signs, long-term economic progress is yet to be seen, as Pakistan continues to navigate an uncertain political and security climate.

As of November 2024, the economy is showing some positive signs of recovery with inflation and fuel prices down, and the rupee relatively stabilised, but further long-term significant improvements are yet to be witnessed. 

The internal political climate remains volatile. This is exemplified by an unwavering opposition continuing to demand Khan’s release and contesting the February elections in 2024. Furthermore, the TTP attacks against military and security objectives continue to occur with a high frequency.

The military’s de facto power hinders development, obstructs transparent decision-making, and stalls the growth of institutions needed for economic progress and the empowerment of the democratic process. This dynamic is not expected to change in the near future. Instead, Sharif must be able to convince investors that Pakistan is worth investing in and calm any concerns that it remains a high-risk and politically volatile country, whilst preventing the opposition from returning to power.  

Enhancing economic cooperation and strengthening Pakistan’s trade capacity can contribute to a more stable, competitive economy which can improve security and mitigate political turbulence, bringing Pakistan out of regional isolation. Hence, success in these areas to be accredited to Sharif can only solidify the status quo in which the power of the military is further consolidated allowing the continuation of a traditionally dominated dynastic political order.  In the midst of all this is a population that will bear the consequences of the government’s shortcomings. Current economic recovery signs are far from providing significant glimmers of hope, especially for the 40% of the population who live under the poverty line in 2024.