Name? Rodrigo Duterte
Westphalian identity? Filipino
Age? 76
Why is he in the news? On the fifth anniversary of the Hague’s ruling that rejected China’s historical claim to most of the disputed South China Sea, Filipino President Duterte is facing confrontation at home and abroad for his less than assertive stance in upholding the ruling. Duterte has made use of more “defeatist rhetoric” against frenemy Xi Jinping to seemingly cozy up to Beijing and away from Washington.
Why do we care? Not only did the 2016 ruling conclude that China’s “nine-dash line” claim has “no legal basis,” but it also affirmed the Philippines’ jurisdiction over its exclusive economic zone (EEZ); making China’s fishing and construction activities in that area illegal.
Why should you care? Because the progress China has made, largely due to Duterte’s lack of political will, makes it near impossible to evict the Chinese from Filipino waters without use of force (aka war). Since war is unlikely and the status quo remains, you should care 3/10.
Who else cares? US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. After China reiterated its rejection of the ruling, Secretary Blinken reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. Similar to Article V of the NATO Treaty, Article IV of the Mutual Defense Treaty says an armed attack on either party in the Pacific area would result in the other party responding to meet the threat at hand.
Any further comments? Duterte’s reluctance to confront China may very well sink his political career in next year’s presidential elections as he faces competition from boxing champion Manny Pacquiao. Senator Pacquiao, a long-time supporter of Duterte, has recently broken off from the current regime as he challenges government corruption and Duterte’s failure of maintaining the 2016 ruling. Pacquiao’s remarks not only indicate a break with the Duterte camp at home but also emphasize the Filipino president’s loss in legitimacy and popularity abroad.
