Name? Han Weiguo
Westphalian identity? Chinese
Age? 64
Why is he in the news? Han Weiguo is the Commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) which conducted military exercises near the disputed border with India.
Why do we care? Two weeks ago we spoke about the border conflict that ultimately led to 20 dead soldiers. Until now it has been common on both sides to only employ unarmed border patrols to avoid quickly erupting real conflict. That was before 20 people died due to injuries from fistfights and extreme weather conditions. Adding weapons to the equation can be either helpful or hurtful.
Why should you care? Either the two countries with the largest populations are engaging in conflict or not. There are two scenarios we can look at here: Either the next confrontation will end in even more casualties on both sides; making it difficult for Modi and Xi to sweep this under the rug like last week. Or the seriousness of exactly that scenario and the following spiral of escalation will make local generals more cautious. Han Weiguo certainly took that route and ordered his troops to be more cautious.
Who else cares? Donald Trump. If China is busy engaging in conflict with India, it weakens them in the trade war with the US which could help Trump with his trade agreement. Also, this might bring Donald and Narendra closer together- exciting! Don gets to fill more stadiums!
Any further comments? Growing nationalism on both sides is making this topic very touchy for either leader. While China is becoming a world leader with growing ambitions, its populations ambitions cannot be overlooked. In India it is similar. Not long after the clash at the border, #BoycottChina began trending in India. Neither Xi nor Modi is interested in this conflict escalating as China wants to focus its attention on the US and India has internal issues to deal with. Oh, and we hear viral trends are still a thing.
