Tuesday (October 4th): Bolsonaro vs Lula for Brazil!

Jair Bolsonaro

Name? Jair Bolsonaro

Westphalian identity? Brazilian

Age? 67

How much of importance are Bolsonaro’s actions:

Why is he in the news? President Jair Bolsonaro and former president Lula Da Silva faced each other in the Brazilian elections on Sunday. Given Bolsonaro’s shaky presidency and Lula’s hot political comeback, the outcome of these elections were long awaited. Although Lula came out on top, he could not achieve more than 50% of the vote and they will face in run-off elections later this month.

Why do we care? Bolsonaro is a conservative who was elected in 2018 as a “cure” to Lula’s Workers Party’s (PT) corruption. Yet his presidency is mired by controversies because of his anti-global and anti-environmental stances, which would not be so bad if his promises of prosperity and low crime had played out. As of now, Brazil’s public infrastructure and economy are worse-off than before he came into office. 

Why should you care? This election campaign showed that Bolsonaro is not as stubborn about his policies as he was previously thought to be, and neither is Lula. Both leaders will need a new playbook by which to rule the Brazil that has resulted from the last 20 years to combat growing inequality, poverty, corruption and Brazil’s diplomatic isolation. You should care 6/10.

Who else cares? Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is the leader of the second biggest economy in the region, second only to Brazil. AMLO is keen on having a left wing co-regent in LATAM. Earlier this year, Lula visited AMLO in Mexico City; together they want to bring strategic autonomy to the region for economic and social development (not so different from what Bolsonaro wants).

Any further comments? Despite his second-place, several Bolsonarists were elected, Bolsonaro and allied parties now make up half of Brazil’s Congress. The remaining votes that the candidates must attract might favour a more market-oriented approach to governance. In fact, most of the third-party votes went to the centre-right.

Francia Morales

Editor in Chief for Research and Analysis