Name? Vladimir Putin
Westphalian identity? Russian
Age? 69
Why is he in the news? Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the Donbas region (Ukraine) after recognising the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic and the Lugansk Republic. He justified this breach of Ukraine’s sovereignty with the protection of Russian minorities, similarly to his orders in Abkhaz in Georgia in 2008.
Why do we care? The threat of force from Russia into Ukraine was omnipresent lately. Yet, these had a high symbolic nature and not enough escalation to cross clear red lines. So far, Russian troops have only moved into already separatist-controlled areas. However, Putin has recognised all of Donbas, of which separatists only control one third. This means troops could advance into territory held by Ukrainian government forces, leading to an open escalation. Meanwhile, a decision by the Ukrainian President Zelensky to move against official Russian forces in the separatist-held areas is pending.
Why should you care? So far events have been symbolic; decisions in the next 24-48 hours will be decisive about open war between Russia and Ukraine. If Putin moves beyond separatist-held areas or if Zelensky moves against official Russian troops, war is inevitable. You care 10/10.
Who else cares? US President Joe Biden. Of course he is only the representative of the Western world, and … beyond … for the first time in a long time. At an emergency meeting of the UNSC, ambassadors from across the world expressed their condemnation, African leaders were among the most vocal about Putin’s imperialist activities. In light of yesterday’s events, sanctions against Putin and his oligarchs are prepared by the Biden administration and allies.
Any further comments? The next few days will set a precedent. After an indecisive reaction to Putin’s annexation of Crimea (2014), he felt unconstrained enough to sign yesterday’s decree. The world’s response tomorrow will determine how secure China’s President Xi might feel about a similar cost-benefit analysis regarding Taiwan.
