• After the coup, Tchianis’ counter-terrorism efforts have failed to curb extremist violence in the country. 
• Tchiani’s decision to withdraw Niger from ECOWAS further intensified economic instability. 
• Tchiani’s pivot away from Western partners has strengthened Russia’s foothold in the region while paving the way for emerging regional players’ influence.

Why is Tchiani COLD?

Answer: Tchiani’s leadership has driven Niger into deeper insecurity and economic turmoil, as his shift away from the West has failed to provide stability and progress.

In July 2023, Niger experienced a significant political shift when President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown by his presidential guards, leading to the installation of General Abdourahmane Tchiani as head of state. 

Tchiani sought to redefine Niger’s sovereignty by expelling French and American troops, restricting foreign media, and reducing economic reliance on the West. Moreover, Tchiani led Niger’s exit from ECOWAS and the establishment of the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), while aligning the country more closely with Russia and other emerging regional players. 

As of February 2025, Tchiani’s policies have failed to deliver meaningful improvements in security or economic stability. Extremist violence has surged to unprecedented levels, particularly in the Tillabery region, where jihadists tightened their grip on key roads leading to Niamey. 

Moreover, Tchiani’s government failed to address the country’s economic challenges, as debt pressures intensified while trade disruptions fueled a rise in prices, driving year-on-year inflation up from 1.7% in June 2023 to 15.5% in June 2024. His pivot away from the West has come at a significant cost, and his growing reliance on Russia and regional allies has yet to compensate for the losses. 

What is changing Tchiani’s heat level?

Answer: Tchiani’s failed counter-terrorism efforts and ECOWAS withdrawal have exacerbated extremist violence and economic hardship. 

Since the coup, Niger has faced escalating security threats as terrorist groups exploited the country’s growing instability to strengthen their foothold. 

Tchiani’s decision to cut ties with Western allies and ECOWAS has strained counterterrorism efforts, depriving Niger of advanced equipment, training, and financial resources. Without Western support, Tchiani’s junta lacks the capacity to dismantle insurgent strongholds, allowing militants to operate more freely and carry out increasingly deadly attacks. Civilian and military fatalities have more than doubled in the first year of junta rule compared with the pre-coup years. 

To adapt to manpower shortage, Tchiani relied heavily on airforce and drone strikes. However, the rise in large-scale insurgent attacks indicates that these measures alone have failed to weaken militants’ operational capabilities .

The Islamic State – Sahel Province (ISSP) has solidified its control over northeastern Tillaberi, extending into Tahoua while encircling east of Niamey. In the Tahoua region, reports of civilian extortion have increased, combined with  a spike in lethal attacks against the Nigerien military, with fatalities in Tahoua more than tripling during the junta’s first year. Meanwhile, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam waal-Muslimin (JNIM) has expanded its operations into southwestern Tillaberi and southern Dosso, demonstrating its growing operational reach.

At the same time, Tchiani’s decision to withdraw from ECOWAS had a severe impact on the already fragile Nigerien economy by closing nearly all borders and trade routes, suspending government financial transactions, and freezing the country’s assets in external banks. 

As a result, Tchiani was forced to reduce its 2023 budget by 40% and default on four debt payments, totaling $519 million since seizing power in July 2023. These economic struggles have driven up food prices, pushing the total number of people living below the extreme poverty line since the coup to 14.1 million, around 54% of the population. 

What is driving Tchiani?

Answer: Tchianis’ goals are driven by dissatisfaction with the precedent government policies, particularly in security and economy.

A major influence on Tchiani’s policies is Niger’s escalating security crisis. He opposed former President Bazoum’s reliance on foreign troops and his openness to dialogue with jihadist groups, viewing it as ineffective and detrimental to the country’s sovereignty. 

Tchiani also perceived the pre-coup security environment, marked by the presence of French and American troops, as paternalistic and ineffective in combating terrorism. This reinforced his aspirations for greater autonomy, prompting the creation of the AES and the expulsion of western military troops from the country. 

Following the coup, Tchianis’ policies have also centered on reclaiming Niger’s economic sovereignty. He criticized the previous government for failing to secure fair economic agreements, especially concerning uranium exports, which many Nigeriens believe benefit foreign companies more than the local population. As a result, Tchiani has revised mining regulations to strengthen national control over resources, starting with the takeover of uranium operations formerly managed by the French company Orano. 

Instead, Tchiani has recently granted small-scale mining permits to two Nigerien companies, Compagnie Minière de l’Aïr (COMINAIR SA) and Compagnie Minière de Recherche et d’Exploitation (COMIREX SA). These companies are expected to produce an average of 2,700 tons of metallic copper annually over the next 10 years. This move aims to reduce reliance on foreign companies and increase the government’s stake in the country’s mining sector, which will reach up to 40%.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Russia’s ability to fill Niger’s security gap remains uncertain, while leaving ECOWAS risks further exacerbating economic instability.
Following the expulsion of western troops, Tchiani has tried to fill the security gap by forging agreements with Moscow, securing military support in exchange for access to valuable resources like gold and uranium. 

However,  Russia may struggle to supply the economic and technical aid needed due to its ongoing war in Ukraine. The reliance on Russian backing risks deepening Niger’s dependence and isolation, exposing it to security threats such as violent extremism and human trafficking. Moreover, amid more frequent attacks, the worsening security situation further endangers the local population. 

Niger’s withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2025 further exacerbates economic instability. The effects of leaving ECOWAS customs union will primarily impact trade relations. Niger will likely have to comply with the Common External Tariff (CET) on imports while reverting to the World Trade Organization’s Most Favored Nation rates for imports from ECOWAS countries. Niger’s landlocked status worsens these issues, leading to increased transportation expenses and limited access to vital coastal ports. As a result, tariffs and domestic prices are anticipated to rise, further straining the economy. 

In this shifting geopolitical landscape, an emerging regional player like Morocco is capitalizing on the opportunity to expand its influence, bolstering its reputation as a stable, long-term partner in the region. By offering landlocked Sahel nations access to the Atlantic through the newly developed Dakhla container terminal in Western Sahara, Morocco provides Tchiani with a potential alternative to ECOWAS-controlled ports.