Name? Olaf Scholz
Westphalian identity? German
Age? 63
Why is he in the news? Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats received the highest share of votes in the German Parliamentary elections last Sunday. Making him the hottest contender to form a new government coalition as the next German chancellor, succeeding conservative Angela Merkel.
Why do we care? As the largest country and economy in Europe, Germany is the EU’s hegemon, leading with 16 years of continuity. Losing Angela Merkel’s experience and weight in negotiations (like the Covid-recovery fund) will undoubtedly change power dynamics. Depending on how fast Scholz can form a government with the Green and the Liberal party, the EU will be on hold until Christmas or beyond.
Why should you care? Germany’s role in foreign affairs is minimal but its impact on the world is undoubtedly there. A good example of this has been Merkel’s caution when criticising China not to hurt German economic interests. Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats expect a tougher EU stance on China’s actions. A new German chancellor being tougher on China, adding to the global systemic rivalry should make you care 6/10.
Who else cares? Russian President Vladimir Putin. Merkel’s last foreign policy move was an agreement with the United States on the Russian gas pipeline NordStream 2. Putin might wish Merkel back as their personal connection allowed for mediation instead of escalation. As new chancellor, Olaf Scholz carried by the Greens and Liberals in Germany (two Russia critics), will not be as friendly to Putin as Merkel was.
Any further comments? Much like EU foreign policy in the past year, German foreign policy will undoubtedly switch to a “green foreign policy.” The main topic of this election was man-made global warming and all three parties vowed to put Germany on the right path but always stressed the point that the world needs to become greener as well. With chancellor Scholz, we can expect a green shift in German foreign policy.
