This section explores the different climatic challenges Brazil is facing. To better understand Lula’s incentives to push for climate policies, analysing the reality of deforestation in the legal Brazilian Amazon is crucial. Firstly, the Amazonian ‘tipping point’ is discussed as a motivator towards Lula’s pressure to achieve positive climatic reductions. Furthermore, the section covers an investigation into water conservation, including droughts and precipitation, to understand their effects on the deforestation of the Amazon. To end, the stake concentrates on the impact of illegal mining and other activities in protected areas perpetuating the deforestation arc that threatens Lula’s presidency.
The Brazilian Amazon covers more than 5 million km2 or 60% of the country’s total area. The Amazon ecosystems shelter about 10 to 15% of global biodiversity. The region lost 10,781 km2 of its forest between August 2021 and July 2022. The Environmental Conservation Journal calculations predict a significant reduction of over 60% in the forest area in the Amazon by 2050, taking into account the combined effect of climate change scenarios, regional climate change as a result of large-scale deforestation, and the effect of forest fires making tropical forests more vulnerable.
During Lula’s first years in trade unions and development into a national figure, poor treatment by the military dictatorship and the post-democratic era shaped Lula into the responsive leader he is today. Due to the conceivable triumphs in climate policies, Lula’s agenda fulfilment can increase diplomatic relations, draw in foreign investment, and foster international collaboration for reducing deforestation in the Amazon, which translates to a better economic opportunity for Brazil.
Amazonian “Tipping Point”
Through model studies by Carlos Nobre, a Brazilian climate scientist, the Amazon currently confronts two “tipping points.” The first is a temperature increase of 4 °C of the rainforest, and the latter is deforestation exceeding 40% of the forest area. Over the past 60 years, the rainforest has warmed by around 1°C, and total deforestation reaches 20% of the forested area.
Estimates put the amount of carbon stored in the Amazon at 150–200 billion tons. In 2019, Brazil generated 82% of its energy from renewable sources, more than the global average of 29%. Agriculture is the main contributor to its carbon emissions. With over 70% of Brazil’s emissions coming from the agriculture sector, it is the nation’s largest producer of greenhouse gases.
With a considerable economic reliance on the agricultural industry, Brazil’s Lula has to find financial sources to avoid reaching these “tipping points” while going against one of Brazil’s most influential industries. During dry seasons, deforested areas used for pastures are sensitive to higher temperatures, especially since they can reach average increases of 1 °C and 1.5 °C. A 50% decrease in tropical forest deforestation and degradation is expected to provide a net economic impact of US $3.7 trillion.
By 2030, a Brazilian green economy has the potential to create 9.5 million jobs by embracing a set of about 30 measures. Through adopting climate policy that leads to a changed economic landscape, investments in science and technology, the creation of higher-quality and more productive jobs, income redistribution, regenerative and sustainable monetary arrangements, assured access to adequate public services, biodiversity preservation, and greenhouse gas emissions neutrality by 2050 are all included in this course of action.
Twelve million people lacked employment by the end of 2021, which is 11% of the population that Lula can influence through a sustainable economy. Long-term sustainability requires recruiting human capital and building a local research capability for innovation. The potential size of this new economy is significantly greater than the one that exists and is based on the unsustainable exploitation of Amazonian natural resources. If Lula succeeds in restoring his reputation and uses this gain towards investing in more jobs for the Brazilian people in a transformed green economy, then the success of his promised policies will allow him to gain more popularity in the next elections.
Water Conservation
The Amazon is a crucial heat source for the world’s atmosphere because of the fertile rainfalls which account for 15% of the freshwater input into the oceans. Through evapotranspiration (ET) recycling and evaporation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the high precipitation rates harbour the water’s significance of the world’s reliance on the rainforest. Except for Chile, every nation in South America benefits from the Amazon’s wetness.
The mortality of the Amazon decreases from extreme drought events such as the droughts of 2005, 2010, and 2015 and the 2009 and 2012 floods, which show an unusual pattern in the climatic changes of the region that have long-term implications. The severe droughts, deforestation, and fires that all occur together confirm deleteriousness to the Amazon’s natural state.
The average annual precipitation over the whole basin is approximately 2,200 mm, ranging from values around 1,700 mm across the southeast, areas of intense land-use and land-cover change (known as the “deforestation arc”), to 3,000 mm in the west owing to the effect of the Andes. If complete deforestation were to occur, temperatures would rise by 3°C, impacting precipitation rates from July to November by a 40% reduction.
As these reduced precipitation rates, fires, droughts and floods become more common in the Amazon, Lula confronts the possibility of becoming the Brazilian leader to deter the Amazon’s fate. If Lula’s climate mitigation policies succeed at the same rate during his first and second terms, he will be remembered as a leader who protects and serves the Amazon and the domestic and global community contributing to a flattering historical reputation. The accomplishments Lula aspires to make through environmental policies cause concrete improvements in economic prosperity, social welfare, and public health.
Criminal Activity in the Amazon
Alarming deforestation rates motivated Lula’s administration, but after some years without assured protection for the populations living in rural areas, he implemented policies to protect Indigenous Territories (ITs) and Protected Areas (PAs) intended to reduce illegal activities. In 2023, forest loss hit the highest numbers seen within the decade. Higher than the rise in non-PAs (1.6 times), the yearly gross forest area loss rates in ITs/PAs grew 3.6 times between 2018 and 2021, showing a worrisome signal and escalating deforestation pressure. Rebuilding the community and environment was prioritised by Lula after March and September 2020, when Brazil passed 27 pieces of legislation that depleted environmental security. Fines for violation of environmental and conservation laws also dropped by 72% from March to August 2020, despite increases in deforestation.
From 2000 to 2021, there has been a significant decrease in the total forested area of the Brazilian Amazon, a loss of 28 × 106 ha. During the same time, the number of ITs/PAs increased due to Lula’s previous policies with collaboration from Marina Silva, another environmental leader in Brazil. By the end of Lula’s second administration, the ITs/PAs enjoyed half of the total forested area and regarded 43 of the total Amazonian land area. For the specific forest loss seen by ITs/PAs, monitors reveal a 5.9 × 106 ha gross forest area loss from 2002 to 2021, accounting for around 12% of total forest area loss. These numbers indicate that Amazonian protected land is crucial in conservation.
Brazil’s mining activity on ITs increased by 625% between 2010 and 2021. In these ITs, annual deforestation grew by 458% between 2017 and 2019, according to the Amazon Deforestation Monitoring Program (PRODES). The amount of ITs covered by the current mining requests is 176,000 km2, which is 3000 times larger than the area currently mined illegally. The mining requests for ITs represent 6.7% of the total 41,413 existing requests or 17% of indigenous territory territory covering the entire Amazon.
Lula’s Personal Stake
By 2030, a Brazilian green economy has the potential to create 9.5 million jobs by embracing a set of about 30 measures. Through adopting climate policy that leads to a changed economic landscape, investments in science and technology, the creation of higher-quality and more productive jobs, income redistribution, regenerative and sustainable monetary arrangements, assured access to adequate public services, biodiversity preservation, and greenhouse gas emissions neutrality by 2050 are all included in this course of action.
After Bolsonaro’s administration’s inimical global impression, Lula wants to promote a favourable international image for more international investment into improved employment rates and human capital. Through his success, he can encourage other potential Brazilian leaders who would emphasise the welfare of the population they serve and seek comparable objectives. The democracy of Brazil has shaped Lula’s upbringing, which he would connect to the importance of Brazilian democracy. After the influence of a military dictatorship, Kubitschek and other leaders served as inspiration for Lula. After Kubitschek’s election in 1956, when Lula was ten, he witnessed the optimism of the Brazilian leader, especially since, during his presidency, Brazil was titled “the country of tomorrow.” With the inspiration of Kubitschek, Lula wants to continue the optimistic international perspective of Brazil and to have future leaders carry on this hope.Twelve million people lacked employment by the end of 2021, which is 11% of the population that Lula can influence through a sustainable economy. Long-term sustainability requires recruiting human capital and building a local research capability for innovation. The potential size of this new economy is significantly greater than the one that exists and is based on the unsustainable exploitation of Amazonian natural resources. If Lula succeeds in restoring his reputation and uses this gain towards investing in more jobs for the Brazilian people in a transformed green economy, then the success of his promised policies will allow him to gain more popularity in the next elections. More than this, his climate leadership will likely restore and rewrite Lula’s legacy in Brazil; and not only his, but the PT’s legacy, too. Following a decade of scandal, the green transformation has the potential to ensure the continuity and restoration of the name of the workers’ movement nationwide.
IExRAIA Summer Research Program:
This article is an excerpt from a report on Lula da Silva produced as part of an RAIA research program on climate leaders. For a full picture of Lula da Silva’s climate leadership read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.
Authors: Lana Francella & Maxima Riep
Editor: Francia Morales
Project Lead: Joshua Dario Hasenstab
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