• Since Ibrahim Traoré’s seizure of power in 2022, the security situation continues to deteriorate with 50% of Burkina’s territory now controlled by JNIM.
• Traoré is employing increasingly authoritarian-like tactics in order to extend his hold on power as he struggles to contain militant threats. 
• Escalating violence perpetuated by militant groups in Burkina and the wider Sahel exacerbates the humanitarian crisis.

Why is Traoré’s heat level COLD?

Answer: Traoré faces difficulty in containing the threat of insurgent groups as violence in the country continues to rise.

Ibrahim Traoré came to power through the means of a military coup in September 2022, dismissing the transitional government and suspending the Constitution. This was a mere nine months after his predecessor, Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, had seized power in the same way from the previous democratically elected president Roch Marc Christian Kabore in January 2022. 

Traoré continues to legitimize his rule by leveraging ongoing security issues linked to increased attacks by militant Islamist groups not only in Burkina Faso, but also in the broader Sahel region. The most active one is al-Qaeda’s affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), formed in 2017 in Mali by merging several preexisting jihadi groups.  

Traoré attributed his takeover to the previous leadership’s ineffectiveness in addressing insecurity and instability. When he initially assumed power, he pledged to stabilize the country, conduct elections, and accelerate the country’s transition to democracy. 

However, as of January 2025, JNIM controls over 50% of Burkina’s territory in the northern and eastern regions of the country as the security apparatus is struggling to address militant threats. Traoré continues to deploy  authoritarian-like tactics in attempts to extend his power as a direct response to fears of an overthrow of his government over the handling of the security crisis. The military is accused of widespread abuses against civilians and restrictions on people’s freedoms.

Non-state armed groups continue to impose a blockade on 40 localities, which are home to an estimated 2 million people, restricting the movement of local population and goods. Blockades are often utilized against communities who are aligned with the state or with pro government militias. In turn, humanitarian groups are struggling to gain access to large segments of the population, which exacerbates food insecurity and hampers the delivery of critical aid.

What is changing Traoré’s heat level?

Answer: Traoré’s ineffective security provision has forced civilians to bear the burden of their own protection as Traoré consolidates an authoritarian trajectory for the country to extend his hold on power.

In 2020, the armed self-defense group Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP) was created as a response to the need of increasing Burkina Faso’s defense capacity and filling critical gaps in the military’s manpower.   

The VDP has become a frequent target of JNIM, as have civilians in general due to their refusal of working with jihadi groups and collaborating with the military. For example, on 24 August, 2024 in the town of Barsaloghu, JNIM attacked and killed at least 133 civilians who were supposedly forced by the junta to work on constructing military trenches for government forces. Likewise, after coming to power, Traoré pledged all out war against the militants, eliminating the possibility of political dialogue supported by his predecessor Damiba. 

Traoré’s administration has reported that it had foiled a total four coup attempts between 2023 and 2024. Traoré has responded to these overthrow attempts with repressive measures against suspected dissidents and other opposition members.Mounting fears of another mutiny has also led to Traoré’s initiation of changes to the country’s legal order. For example, Traoré is seeking to reintroduce the death penalty as a way of addressing crimes related to ‘terrorist’ activities. This acts as a means of eliminating not only militants linked to jihadi groups like JNIM , but also to eradicate opposition. 

Furthermore, the replacement of the country’s motto “Unity, Progress, Justice” with a constitutional provision that states “Homeland or Death, we will conquer” reinforces the junta’s dominance over state and society, through the promotion of patriotic values.

What is driving Traoré?

Answer: Despite the worsening security situation, Traoré continues to leverage anti-western sentiment, maintaining relations with Russia as a means of garnering public support.

Traoré is one of three military junta leaders in the Sahel region alongside General Assimi Goïta in Mali and General Abdourahamane Tchiani in Niger. Their rise to power has been underpinned by strong anti-imperialist, anti-western, and specifically anti-French sentiment. As a response, Traoré has set out to foster international partnerships outside of the Western world. With French presence effectively ending in February 2023, Traoré has emphasized relations with Russia, which he considers a reliable partner in Burkina’s fight against jihadi threats. Such relations have been welcomed by the population, which fares positively for legitimizing Traoré, but the exact level of support for Russia is unknown. 

Moscow has previously sent out military units to Ouagadougou to provide technical and operational support in tackling security threats, and most recently has signed a deal to sell telecoms and surveillance satellites to Burkina, Mali and Niger. Despite the promise of increased military aid, in August 2024 Russia pulled out one hundred out of about three hundred of its ‘Bear Brigade’ troops stationed in Burkina since May 2024 in order to deploy them to the frontlines of Ukraine. Although cooperation with Russia continues, the level of continued destabilization in Burkina calls into question the effectiveness of such support.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Traoré’s inability to address security concerns in Burkina risks the possibility of another overthrow attempt, while dragging the country deeper in a humanitarian crisis.

Traoré’s ineffectiveness in dealing with the growing threat of militant Islamist groups coupled with incessant violence propagated by the pro-government forces exacerbates internal security and political instability. In the long term, this increases the possibility of another coup attempt. In the event of a threat to his power, Traoré will seek to exploit his alliance with Mali and Niger, as it is in the interests of all three junta-led countries to prevent each other’s collapse.

The Sahel now accounts for the most fatalities from militant Islamist groups than any other region. JNIM’s main operations, although mainly targeted within Mali and Burkina, are expanding along the borders of neighbouring Benin, and Togo. The group has also increased operations in the southwestern Tillaberi region and southern Dosso region in Niger.

The rivalry between JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), another jihadi group operating in the region, further fuels violence and instability in the Sahel region. Resentment towards governments in the junta-led countries contributes to this issue as it has helped JNIM to present itself as a security and economic provider to the population. Particularly, JNIM is expanding its recruitment pull in the localities where the juntas target civilians on the grounds of alleged complicity with jihadi groups. Combined with Traoré’s failures to address security challenges, violence and destabilisation in the Sahel will persist, worsening the humanitarian crisis, where already over 33 million people  are in urgent need of aid.