Name? Sergey Lavrov
Westphalian identity? Russian
Age? 71
Why is he in the news? As an estimated 100.000 troops remain massed on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia, Foreign Minister Lavrov warned that Moscow has “run out of patience” after unsuccessful meetings in Geneva, Vienna, and Brussels. Last week, Russia demanded that NATO provide a legally binding, written commitment to stop any eastward expansion before entering into talks with the US.
Why do we care? This is a diplomatic stalemate. The West (aka NATO members) insists that all countries have the right to choose their alliances while Lavrov (aka the Kremlin) believes any expansion of NATO eastward presents an existential threat to Russia. Although this doesn’t mean negotiations are officially over, it warns that Russia is increasingly ready to abandon diplomacy and increase pressure on Ukraine.
Why should you care? Because according to Poland’s Foreign Minister (and the OSCE’s chairman for this year), Europe is closer to war now than it has been in the last 30 years. Keeping in mind that Poland’s foreign minister is driving his own agenda, you can still tell that tensions and stress levels are rising. You should care 6/10 about statements and actions which escalate rather than deescalate.
Who else cares? Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev. As we discussed on Monday, the Russian-led CSTO forces helped shift the odds back into Tokayev’s favour during protests in Almaty. Now that Tokayev’s power is secured, Lavrov can shift his attention back to negotiations with NATO.
Any further comments? From Ukraine to Kazakhstan to Belarus, Russia, aka President Putin and Minister Lavrov, is (are) strengthening its (their) desired sphere of influence. The more regional leaders struggle, the more they resort back to Russia for help to remain in power. Ultimately, this strengthens Putin’s strongman image diplomatically and further proves that Lavrov is an excellent extension of Putin’s will. All of this increases pressure on NATO to negotiate with Russia.
