Name? Vladimir Putin
Westphalian identity? Russian
Age? 69
Why is he in the news? In April we discussed Vladimir Putin’s need for attention and his various ways of attracting it, one of which were Russian troops close to the Ukrainian border. Since then Russia further increased the amount of weaponry, which poses the question: why all of this?
Why do we care? There are two interpretations to this. The American interpretation, that Putin is preparing a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, or at least the contested regions in eastern Ukraine. Or, second, the European interpretation, Putin is sending a signal of strength towards the ever-enlarging NATO that Ukraine shall not become a member of NATO and not further integrated into the West.
Why should you care? Depending on which scenario becomes reality you should care differently. However, it is our job to make bold predictions that nobody will hold us accountable to, so let us make one for you so you only need to worry about one scenario.
We are going with the European interpretation as Putin said exactly that today. He demands that the West guarantees precluding any further NATO expansion and deployment of its weapons near his country’s borders. Something that, considering Putin’s perspective, we can actually understand … Just imagine Putin equipped Mexico with weapons and offered AMLO to join forces. You should care 6/10 about this.
Who else cares? President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen as Putin plays an essential role in keeping European gas prices low. #NordStream2
Any further comments? What does not help during conflict scenarios is less communication. After the US ordered 27 Russian diplomats to leave Washington, Putin retaliated by sending some US diplomats home too. Just to put the decrease in communication into perspective, in 2017 the US embassy in Moscow had a staff of 1200, four years later it shrunk to 120 … and not because McKinsey was hired to improve efficiency.
