• Scottish National Party leader John Swinney is facing waning support following a series of party scandals.
• Swinney has launched the Your Right to Decide campaign to reignite the independence movement, although the possibility of another referendum appears unlikely.
• The campaign revives a decades-old debate over Scotland’s place within the United Kingdom.

Why is John Swinney COLD?

Answer: Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, faces challenges both at home and away, making his pursuit of independence a distant possibility.

A long-time figure in Scottish politics, John Swinney has been a member of the Scottish National Party (SNP) since 1979. He became Scotland’s First Minister in May 2024 and currently leads the SNP, which won the 2021 elections with 64 of the 129 seats, just one short of an outright majority

Before assuming his current role, John Swinney held several key positions in both party and government, including a notable tenure as Deputy First Minister under Nicola Sturgeon from 2021 to 2023.

He stepped down following Sturgeon’s resignation amid the SNP’s financial controversies that year, during which senior party officials, including then–Chief Executive Peter Murrell (Sturgeon’s husband), were accused of embezzlement.

After a brief period away from government during Humza Yousaf’s tenure as First Minister, Swinney declared his candidacy for both the party leadership and the premiership, ultimately securing both positions unopposed.

Since taking office, John Swinney has sought to restore the SNP’s reputation and gain back public trust ahead of the Scottish elections scheduled for May 2026. His efforts come as the party faces a sharp decline in public confidence, amid lingering fallout from corruption scandals and recent surveys showing that the current administration has fallen short of expectations.

Although there is still some time until the next elections, recent developments point to a notable weakening of the party’s support base. The 2024 UK general elections illustrated this decline, with the SNP falling from 48 seats in Westminster to just 9, nearly half the voter support compared to 2019. Further signs of vulnerability emerged in the summer of 2025 when the party lost several by-elections (contests held to fill vacant parliamentary seats) to one of the opposition parties, the Labour Party.

Acknowledging the “tough challenge” he inherited upon taking office, Swinney is actively seeking to win back support from both voters and party officials by reinvigorating the independence agenda, a historically popular issue in Scotland that has previously bolstered the SNP’s support.

Overall, it is possible to say that John Swinney faces a difficult path, navigating declining public support and the lingering fallout from the party’s scandals. His efforts to revive the SNP and the independence agenda will be crucial in determining whether he can stabilize his leadership ahead of the 2026 elections.

What is changing John Swinney’s heat level?

Answer: Swinney faces multiple political obstacles while trying to win back support from the voters.

Scotland’s independence debate is a long-standing feature of its politics. Since the start of devolution in 1998 (a process that granted Scotland greater institutional powers within the United Kingdom) the issue has remained central to political discourse. The movement reached its peak in 2014, when Alex Salmond’s SNP succeeded in holding an independence referendum after winning the 2011 Scottish elections with an outright majority. The ‘No’ option narrowly won, with 55.3% of the vote, prompting Salmond’s resignation. 

Support for independence declined for several years until 2016, when Brexit reignited the debate. In Scotland, the result sharply contrasted with the rest of the UK: only 38% of Scots voted to leave the European Union, compared to the overall 51.9%. This outcome led then First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (2014-2023) to argue that Scotland’s sovereignty had been undermined, and that there was justification for another referendum also commonly known as ‘Indyref2’.

In order to help the SNP recover from recent political setbacks linked to financial irregularities, John Swinney’s most recent strategy involves bringing Indyref2 back to the centre of Scottish politics. This political move, announced to voters in September 2025 with the publication of the paper Your Right to Decide, aims to bolster support for his party ahead of the 2026 elections. 

According to him, it is only when the SNP wins an outright majority (as in the 2011 elections) that a referendum is possible, and he wants this to be the case again in 2026. Furthermore, he believes the ‘Yes’ side will prevail next time, as “by 2030 a generation will have passed” and one million new voters will be able to take part in the referendum compared to 2014.

However, in Scotland, an outright majority requires 65 of the 129 parliamentary seats. This is crucial for proposing an independence referendum, which must first be approved by the Scottish Parliament. However, achieving such a majority is rather difficult, given that the Scottish electoral system is designed to ensure wider political representation, which ultimately distributes seats away from the leading party. For a party to obtain an outright majority, it must not only win the elections but also gain the backing of a significant share of the electorate.

This poses a major obstacle to John Swinney’s independence agenda. As of October 2025, the SNP holds only 60 seats, with most others held by pro-UK parties. The Greens support independence but are not currently backing the SNP-led government due to ideological differences, leaving Swinney five seats short of securing parliamentary approval for a referendum.

Polling is an additional hurdle. Ipsos placed the SNP at 34% in June 2025—far below levels seen before the 2021 election, when it won 64 seats with a pre-election polling high of 52%. Current trends make a 2026 majority unlikely, placing Swinney’s “heat level” at COLD.

Even if he overcame Scotland’s internal constraints, UK politics presents further barriers. Under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, Westminster must authorise any sovereignty referendum. Since the 2024 general election, Labour governs with a strong majority, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer has ruled out approving Indyref2 before 2028, regardless of the SNP’s electoral performance.

The UK Supreme Court affirmed Westminster’s veto power in 2022, and no major party expected to compete in the 2028 general election is likely to take a different stance.However, other issues such as the NHS crisis or Scotland’s economic decay are seen as more pressing than the independence issue by the general Scottish population. Moreover, as John Swinney is the incumbent First Minister and the SNP leads the government, Scottish society also views him and his party as responsible for the country’s current problems.

What is driving Swinney?

Answer: Swinney wants to turn things around politically for the SNP to help him secure office after 2026.

After becoming First Minister in May 2024, John Swinney declared that  “sense of loyalty” to the SNP compelled him to assume leadership during the party’s turmoil following financial scandals. Since then, he has focused on rebuilding domestic support and is using the independence agenda as a unifying rallying point.

He is positioning himself for an electoral comeback in 2026 as the SNP’s candidate for First Minister. A victory would give him another five-year term, though its effectiveness, and the viability of his independence strategy, will depend on the results. While an outright majority would allow him to govern until 2031 with full control, this scenario appears unlikely. Polls suggest he may still win the election, but without securing a parliamentary majority.

Despite Swinney’s latest plan for independence being really difficult to achieve in the current political landscape, it is far from pointless. According to sources close to the SNP, it may have been advanced by the First Minister to silence internal critics. With the SNP Annual Summit taking place just a month after the publication of the Your Right to Decide paper, pushing for independence could help him consolidate his candidacy for the upcoming election. Also, as an SNP politician aligned with the party’s principles since 1979, securing Scotland’s independence from the United Kingdom remains one of his long-standing political ambitions –another reason for advancing the independence agenda beyond pure electoral strategy.

From an economic perspective, an independent Scotland could bring significant changes. Given that one of the most pressing issues for Scots today is the economy (as reflected in the Ipsos survey from June 2025). John Swinney is now binding both issues together. He has recently claimed that independence would ease the financial burden on Scottish households by up to £10,000 per year. 

He has also stepped up efforts regarding Scotland’s trade relations with the United States. Although Donald Trump’s tariff plan has not hit the UK as hard as other regions, with only a 10% increase, one of the lowest globally– Swinney wants Scottish goods to be fully exempt. This ambition has led him to engage in direct talks with Trump, bypassing the UK central government, and he intends to continue doing so, arguing that the British administration has treated Scotland’s trading interests as secondary in its negotiations with Trump.

Another major driver of Swinney’s independence agenda is the ambition to rejoin the European Union after Scotland leaves the United Kingdom. This is a top priority for Swinney’s government. The main arguments are that Scotland never wanted to leave the EU, as the Brexit vote clearly showed– and that exclusion from the EU is harming Scotland’s trade. Despite the absence of tariffs and the existence of UK-EU trade deals easing post-Brexit relations, European regulations still affect goods originating from the UK, including Scotland.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: The renewed push for independence and the SNP crisis will shape the upcoming 2026 Scottish elections. Moreover, Scotland’s independence could have significant consequences for its reintegration into the EU.

John Swinney’s push for another referendum ahead of the 2026 Scottish elections could bring notable changes to the wider British political landscape. On the one hand, if his current electoral strategy proves effective, the SNP could recover from its recent decline and regain voter confidence.

Swinney could win the elections and remain in power until 2031, but whether he will be politically unopposed in Scotland for the next five years depends on him securing an outright majority. It is also crucial to note that to implement his independence agenda, he must first control the Scottish Parliament, as required by law.

On the other hand, despite the next UK general elections being scheduled for 2028, the recent surge in support for Reform UK, a far-right party whose leader, Nigel Farage, kickstarted Brexit could boost backing for independence to as much as 60%,. Combined with the “one million new voters” factor mentioned by Swinney, this could spark a major shift in Scottish and British politics regarding independence in the near future.

Finally, Scotland’s independence is set to remain relevant in EU politics over the coming years. Swinney and the SNP have repeatedly expressed their desire to rejoin the Union after leaving the United Kingdom. If he were to win an outright majority in the next elections. And thus trigger the independence process– Scotland’s sovereignty would once again become a major topic in Europe.

However, given current trends and the opposition of key figures like Keir Starmer, this remains unlikely. Nonetheless, even if independence remains a “cold” issue, Swinney’s renewed push has already brought Scotland’s constitutional status back to the centre of both UK and EU political debate.