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• The 2024 snap elections resulted in French President’s Macron’s party losing its majority in the National Assembly, leading to two Prime Ministers in three months and deepening legislative deadlock.
• To secure support, Macron has leaned further right, appointing conservative figures and adopting tougher immigration policies. 
• Delayed budget approval, rising debt, and increasing unemployment are fueling public discontent, threatening Macron’s ability to govern effectively until 2027.

Why is Macron’s heat level COLD?

Answer: Political instability following the 2024 snap elections, which left no governing majority, weakened Macron’s ability to govern. 

French President Emmanuel Macron, while entering the second half of his second term, is facing a deeply fractured political landscape. In June 2024, President Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections, as a response to his party’s electoral setback in the European elections. 

Instead of clarifying France’s political direction, the snap elections further fractured the National Assembly. Macron’s Renaissance party lost its majority, deepening the deadlock and leaving no party with a governing mandate. The left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) emerged as the largest bloc with  180 seats, followed by Renaissance with 163 seats, while the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) placed third with 143 seats. Since no party secured a majority, forming a coalition became essential. However, deep ideological divisions made coalition-building extremely difficult, further weakening Macron’s ability to lead effectively.

In order to strengthen his ability to govern, Macron shifted further to the right,  by appointing Michel Barnier as Prime Minister. A veteran politician from Les Républicains, a right-wing party, Barnier was meant to be a unifying figure capable of bridging divisions within the right, thanks to his experience as the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator and his reputation as a skilled compromiser. 

His appointment was intended to reassure both the traditional right and the rising far-right by aligning with conservative positions. At the same time, Macron sought to present Barnier’s government as responsive to conservative concerns while maintaining a pro-European stance, aiming to ease tensions with opposition forces in the National Assembly.

However, Barnier’s party held only 48 seats, making him a controversial choice. In order to govern, Barnier sought support from the RN, a move that distanced the moderates and the left. But the RN later turned against Barnier, by siding with the NPF to block the approval of the 2025 budget via a motion of no-confidence, leading to Barnier’s consequent resignation after just three months of taking office. While this strategy allowed Macron to maintain control in the short-term, it came at the cost of alienating parts of his centrist and left-leaning base, deepening divisions within his fragile coalition. 

In response, Macron convened the political parties he deemed part of the “Republican Arc” on December 10, 2024, notably excluding RN and the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI). He then appointed his longtime ally François Bayrou, leader of the Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem), as Prime Minister – a move that drew criticism from both the left and right, who had expected Macron to choose a leader from their respective ranks. 

Bayrou’s first major test came with the 2025 budget, a challenge given the fragmented National Assembly lacking a clear majority. Facing legislative deadlock, he invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution to bypass a vote, forcing the opposition to either accept the budget or pass a motion of no confidence. LFI filed a motion,  but the Sénat, dominated the right and center-right, ultimately rejected it, ensuring the budget’s passage. 

With an increasingly polarized National Assembly and no stable majority, Macron now faces an uphill battle in governing effectively for the remainder of his term. Every policy decision is likely to face fierce opposition, making legislative deadlock and political instability defining features of Macron’s presidency in the upcoming months.

What is changing Macron’s heat level?

Answer: Macron’s heat level is wavering amid instability, policy struggles, and economic woes, weakened by four PM turnovers and backlash over pension and immigration reforms.

Macron’s popularity is decreasing due to three main factors. Firstly, France has experienced great political instability since the 2024 snap elections, with the country holding four different Prime Ministers in less than a year. This level of turnover is very unusual in the Fifth Republic and reflects deep divisions within the National Assembly, in which each Prime Minister faced significant resistance. Macron’s inability to maintain a consistent government has weakened his authority and eroded public confidence in his leadership.

Secondly, Macron has also been struggling with his domestic reforms agenda, particularly on issues related to pensions, wages, employment, and immigration. His controversial pension reform (raising the retirement age from 62 to 64)  was part of his policy agenda already in 2022, but its passage through Article 49.3 sparked protests and strikes. This decision was seen by many as undemocratic, which fuelled mass demonstrations, strikes, and violent clashes between protesters and law enforcement across the country. 

The protests went beyond opposition to the reform itself, evolving into a broader movement against Macron’s leadership. The crisis also revitalised opposition parties, which leveraged public anger to weaken Macron’s standing, and contributed to the legislative deadlock.

Besides pensions, the second contested political battle Macron is facing is the immigration law, a divisive legislation that is affecting France’s political landscape and raising tensions with Algeria. Initially proposed as a means to streamline migration control and improve integration policies, the law took a significant turn to the right, in an effort to gain support from Les Républicains (LR) and the RN. The final version includes stricter conditions for family reunification, limits on access to social benefits for non-EU migrants, and a controversial measure that allows for easier deportation of undocumented immigrants. 

While these provisions were designed to appeal to the conservative electorate, they have sparked a lot of debate among political groups and the public since it touches on key ideational divides, national identity debates, and concerns over security and integration, Indeed, while the traditional right and the far-right argue this law needed to be tougher, the left coalition opposes this law, arguing it undermines France’s values of asylum and integration, 

Lastly, the ongoing political deadlock prevented France from approving its state budget until February 2025 – an unprecedented delay with serious financial repercussions. According to the French government, the budget crisis was costing France approximately €100 million per day, as the state was forced to operate under provisional funding measures that limited public spending and investment. 

By January 2025, pressure mounted on the government to break the deadlock. Pierre Moscovici, the President of the High Council of Public Finances, warned that without an approved budget, France’s deficit for 2025 would rise to approximately 6% of GDP. This raised concerns about France’s compliance with EU fiscal rules and put Macron’s economic credibility on the line. 

The budget crisis, coupled with Macron’s domestic policy decisions, has intensified public discontent, manifesting in widespread protests and strikes. This has reinforced concerns over his administration’s reliance on executive mechanisms to circumvent legislative opposition, raising questions regarding the balance between governance efficiency and democratic legitimacy. While some of his policies have been successfully enacted, their implementation has come at the expense of political stability and public trust, suggesting a trade-off between short-term policy gains and long-term political cohesion.

What is driving Macron?

Answer: Macron’s primary objective is to consolidate enough political support to govern effectively until 2027, while navigating a deeply fragmented National Assembly to maintain stability and legislative control.

At the core of Macron’s strategy there is a fundamental objective: securing enough political consent to govern effectively until the end of his term in 2027. With a fragmented National Assembly and no clear governing majority, he has resorted to two main mechanisms in order to consolidate his position: weakening the left-wing coalition from within and shifting his policies further to the right to appeal to conservative and far-right forces.

First, Macron has sought to appeal to the Socialist Party (PS), recognising its more centrist leanings compared to the more radical La France Insoumise (LFI). By doing so, he is encouraging a natural distancing between the two parties, making it more difficult for the left-wing NFP to maintain a unified position. This became clear when the PS refused to support LFI’s vote of no confidence against Bayrou’s government in early 2025 – a move that exposed ideological fault lines within the coalition. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of LFI, responded by publicly declaring that his party could no longer consider the PS as a reliable ally.

Secondly, Macron’s policies are leaning further to the right, particularly on immigration, to appease the conservative and far-right parties, whose vote he increasingly needs. Two key laws illustrate this shift: the first targets the French overseas territory of Mayotte, where birthright citizenship has historically contributed to high levels of immigration. The new legislation significantly restricts this right, aligning with long-standing demands from the right-wing to restrict immigration. The second measure, instead, tightens visa restrictions for Algerian dignitaries and elites, escalating tensions between Paris and Algiers. 

These decisions serve as a political signal to right-wing voters and parties that Macron is willing to take a harder stance on migration, which is one of their key priorities. 

By pursuing these strategies, Macron aims to broaden his base of support and navigate the volatile political landscape. However, this approach comes at the cost of further alienating his centrist and left-leaning electorate. 

If Macron successfully consolidates right-wing support, he might find it easier to advance stricter immigration policies and economic reforms, but at the cost of heightened polarisation and reduced cooperation from the left, making consensus-driven governance increasingly difficult. Whether this calculated shift will secure his ability to govern until 2027 or further deepen France’s political instability is still an open question.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: France’s political crisis directly affects its citizens, as rising debt and stalled reforms put public spending, welfare, and job security at risk

France’s ongoing political crisis is unfolding at a time of economic and social strain, and its consequences will directly impact its citizens. The country’s rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which reached 112% in 2024 – far above the European average of 81% –  places significant pressure on public spending. This makes it more difficult for the government to finance welfare programs, public services, and economic measures. As a result, everyday concerns such as pensions, healthcare, and employment could come under increasing scrutiny or face potential cuts.

At the same time, unemployment has risen to 7.6% after years of steady decline, eroding one of Macron’s key economic successes. For workers and job seekers, this means a tougher labour market, increased by job insecurity, and potentially fewer opportunities for upward mobility. This economic downturn has also exacerbated social tensions, with discontent spreading across different segments of the population – particularly among young people and working-class voters who feel increasingly alienated from the political system.

These economic challenges are also fuelling the rise of extremist political forces on both the left and the right wing, who share a common opposition to Macron’s economic policies but propose radically different solutions. These forces might push France toward more polarised governance, making political compromise even harder to achieve.

This could also translate to prolonged uncertainty, unpredictable policy shifts, and the possibility of deeper institutional crisis in the years leading up to the 2027 presidential elections. Therefore, Macron’s struggle to govern is not merely an issue for political elites, but it rather has direct implications for economic stability and social cohesion.