• Fiala is losing public support as his government fails to deliver on promised economic reforms and implements unpopular austerity measures. 
• Public discontent has spread beyond opposition critics as approval declines across trade unions, civil society, and Fiala’s own centre-right base.
• The far-right ANO party is capitalising on economic frustration and disillusionment with Fiala, echoing a broader European populist trend.

Why is Fiala’s heat level FREEZING?

Answer: Fiala’s government has failed to deliver on key promises, particularly on fiscal reform and structural modernisation, leading to widespread public dissatisfaction.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala entered office in late 2021 with a promise to restore fiscal responsibility by reducing the budget deficit, curbing public spending, and promoting long-term economic stability. He also pledged to modernise sectors like education and digital infrastructure and reaffirm the country’s Euro-Atlantic commitments,  strengthening ties with NATO and the European Union, and promoting democratic values and security cooperation. However, halfway through his term, his government has struggled to translate its ambitious agenda into results. The reality has been marked more by limited outcomes than by structural reform. 

One notable exception has been defence spending. His government successfully brought defence expenditures up to 2% of GDP in 2024, meeting NATO requirements for the first time in over two decades. Yet, this singular achievement stands in contrast to a broader perception of governmental underperformance. 

Although Fiala delivered on his promise to increase defence spending, one of his government’s central pledges (to address the Czech Republic’s fiscal imbalance) has fallen short. Despite assurances that major corrections would be reflected in the 2023 budget, these have failed to materialise. The government has introduced a consolidation package that includes a VAT reform merging two reduced rates into one, the cancellation of some tax exemptions, and pension system adjustments aimed at slowing spending growth. 

These austerity measures sparked public discontent and national protests in late 2023 and continued into early 2024, with tens of thousands of trade union members joining, as the measures included cuts to social spending and wage freezes during a time of rising living costs. At the same time, economists criticised their measures for lacking structural depth and long-term impact. 

Fiala’s agenda has met resistance from a range of veto players. Trade unions have mobilised against spending cuts, regional governments have pushed back on decentralisation efforts, and the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, has at times distanced himself from the government’s approach, particularly on economic matters. These institutional and societal headwinds have slowed the government’s policy implementation and further isolated Fiala from the political mainstream.

On top of that, the crisis of public confidence is playing out visibly in the streets. Widespread protests against austerity measures and rising living costs have swept throughout the country, further highlighting the diminishing public support for the governing coalition.  Due to public perception of unfulfilled promises, Fiala’s approval ratings have plummeted, placing him among the least popular EU leaders. His coalition’s inability to follow through on key reforms, particularly on taxation, pensions, and public sector spending, coupled with unpopular austerity policies, has created a perception of stagnation and detachment from public concerns. Despite introducing a fiscal consolidation package in 2023, many of the measures were seen as either too modest or socially burdensome.

What is changing Fiala’s heat level?

Answer: Fiala’s heat level is cooling as his coalition loses support within its own centre-right base, while rising opposition forces gain momentum.

The cooling of Petr Fiala’s political momentum can be largely attributed to growing disenchantment within his own centre-right base. Supporters who initially backed the coalition for its promises of fiscal discipline, pro-European orientation, and structural reforms ( particularly in public administration and education) increasingly view the government as having failed to deliver. As key policy goals remain only partially implemented, the coalition is now perceived as struggling to maintain coherence and fulfil its governing mandate.

This broader erosion of trust is evident in mass protests: public sector trade unions have repeatedly staged strikes and warning actions, opposing the government’s austerity measures, pension reforms, and healthcare cuts. Farmers, too, have joined the wave of dissent, protesting against EU-aligned environmental and agricultural policies that they say threaten their livelihoods. Together, these protests underscore a growing consensus across socio-economic groups that Fiala’s government has not met their economic and policy expectations. 

According to a recent Eurobarometer survey, the Czech Republic now ranks at the very bottom of EU member states in terms of confidence in government institutions. Not only has institutional trust plummeted, but faith in the broader democratic system has also eroded, raising questions about the long-term legitimacy of Fiala’s leadership and his coalition’s ability to govern effectively.

At the same time, political opposition is intensifying. The right-wing populist party ANO, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, has seized on public discontent to position itself as a viable alternative. ANO has relentlessly criticised the government’s economic policies, particularly its tax and pension reforms. Furthermore, the far-right Svoboda a Přímá Demokracie (SPD) have challenged Fiala’s pro-EU stance and military aid to Ukraine, appealing to a more nationalist and eurosceptic base. 

What is driving Fiala?

Answer: Fiala is driven by the determination to secure a renewed mandate in the upcoming elections and by a deep-rooted ideological commitment to liberal conservatism and Euro-Atlantic values, shaped by his academic background. 

With parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2025, Fiala is intensifying his campaign efforts to defend his leadership and secure a political mandate. He has framed the elections as a defining choice between a “pro-Western, reformist path” and a return to “populist governance”, highlighting his commitment to prudent state management. Therefore, he is supporting sectors like education, infrastructure, energy, and emerging technologies, as they are essential for both national development and democratic resilience.

Moreover, the SPOLU (“Together”) coalition, an alliance of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL), and the centre-right liberal-conservative party (TOP-09), has signed a joint pact under Fiala’s leadership, aiming to exceed 30% of the vote. Their objective is to counter the rising ANO party and reaffirm Czechia’s alignment with the democratic West.

Fiala wants to win the upcoming elections in order to advance his agenda, which centres on fiscal discipline, active engagement in NATO, and the defence of democratic values. His goals include reducing national debt, improving governance, and strengthening liberal democracy both domestically and internationally.

A key pillar of this foreign policy is the firm support for Ukraine, rooted both in personal conviction and historical perspective. As a historian and former researcher of political transformations in Europe, Fiala is acutely aware of the legacy of Soviet domination in Central Europe and the dangers of expansionism. His belief that Czech security depends on strong Western allies is therefore not only strategic but deeply ideological. This perspective is further shaped by his early activism during the Velvet Revolution, reinforcing his long-standing commitment to democratic sovereignty. 

Fiala’s belief in multilateral security frameworks, combined with shared historical experiences and mutual interests (both economic and political), also informed his initial push for closer regional cooperation. Fiala initially promoted stronger cooperation with neighbouring countries like Slovakia and Hungary, aiming to build strategic partnerships within the EU. However, political shifts such as Robert Fico’s return to power in Slovakia have complicated these relationships, particularly regarding Ukraine and EU integration, resulting in cooled diplomatic ties and halted joint initiatives.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: The outcome of the 2025 elections could reshape the Czech Republic’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory, reflecting a wider shift toward populism.

With new parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2025, the political future of Petr Fiala and his government remains uncertain. Although his coalition came to power promising reform and anti-populist governance, rising dissatisfaction over austerity, living costs, and perceived inaction has weakened public support. Recent polls show the populist ANO party capitalising on this discontent, presenting itself as a more pragmatic alternative.

This trend echoes across Europe and beyond. From Robert Fico’s return in Slovakia to the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom and Sweden’s Sweden Democrats, populist movements exploit economic anxieties and distrust in centrist elites by promising national sovereignty and swift solutions. They position themselves as defenders of “ordinary people” against both domestic and supranational institutions like the EU.

A potential ANO-led government may reverse austerity policies with generous public spending to win voter support. On the foreign policy front, a power shift could pull the Czech Republic away from its strong support for Ukraine and European unity toward a stance more aligned with Hungary and Slovakia, especially on migration, EU integration, and relations with Russia. 

For the EU, this would represent not just a national shift but a broader weakening of the liberal democratic voices in the Visegràd region and further complicate unified approaches to Ukraine and European defence. The October elections thus represent a pivotal moment for Fiala and the Czech Republic’s role in the broader European political landscape.