• Rising public concern in Germany following a knife attack, carried out by an asylum seeker and member of the Islamic State Jihadist group puts Scholz under pressure.
• Germany is experiencing a rise in votes for the far-right AFD, an anti-immigration sentiment.
• Concern across the EU is on the rise.

Why is Scholz’s heat level MILD?

Answer: Scholz is MILD as he ordered for border controls to be tightened, aiming to shift public opinion away from the growing far-right wing and lessen public concern in the German political landscape.

On the 16th of September, Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany, executed the measure of enforcing stricter border controls that were established along the nation’s borders. This decision was taken following a deadly knife attack in Solingen Germany by a Syrian asylum seeker, and member of the Islamic State Jihadist group. The attack killed three and left eight people wounded. 

The attack resulted in a spike in approval rating for the German far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD), gaining support in three German state elections, even winning one of them. The AFD has historically held strong beliefs in anti- immigration and stricter enforcement of deportations as well as border controls to curb illegal migration. This stance was a key issue for voters in the last elections, ranking high on the electorate’s list of concerns.

On the other hand, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a member of the German Social Democratic Party,  has for long supported the country’s need for legal migration to combat an ageing workforce. An example of such policies is when Scholz was newly elected in December of 2021, he pledged to reduce the barriers to immigration in the country, simplifying the process for immigrants to be granted citizenship. 

Although recent events and election results showed Scholz’s party has not been doing well in the elections across the country and highlighted the need to implement firmer policies when it comes to the country’s stance on immigration. Scholz has therefore come under pressure to turn things around in order to retain his position as prime minister for the upcoming election in September of 2025. 

What is changing Scholz’s heat level?

Answer: Concerns across the European Union are on the rise following the implementation of German border patrols and a rise in support for the German far-right.

German public concern is on the rise following the knife attack, raising questions about Scholz’s stance on immigration. As the far-right is on the rise, and with the AFD capitalising on strong anti-immigration sentiments and attracting votes nationwide, the pressure on Scholz is rising to tighten immigration rules.

These new laws however threaten one of the Schengen Agreement Areas, and the European Union’s key pillar, the right to free movement across borders. The implementation has caused condemnation across the continent, including Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden, Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner, and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who all heavily criticised the plans, claiming such moves would put the Schengen area in danger. An urgent meeting has been called by the Polish Prime Minister within the EU Commission to discuss the matter.

What is driving Scholz?

Answer: A rise in votes for the far-right group AFD in three German states forces Scholz to regain approval ahead of the next federal elections.

Scholz is driven by his need to gain approval by both the public and the parliament following the Alternative for Germany leading polls across three German States and a widespread decline in votes for the social democrats. 

Scholz initially questioned the measures demanded by the opposing German far-right party, following his early migration policies as the newly elected chancellor in 2021. He now argues that the need for controlled migration is necessary for the country’s long-term economy due to an ageing workforce. Ultimately, Scholz is hoping to gain votes and popularity for the upcoming national federal election in September of 2025. 

Scholz’s party, the SPD, is slowly being pulled to the right as a result of this pressure. The party, which holds pro-legal migration policies, believes the new policies to be going against the German “Willkommenskultur”, or in other terms “Welcome Culture”. Many members of the party have also expressed their feelings toward the implementation to be regrettable. 

Scholz ultimately decided to go against his party’s motives through the implementation of the patrols in hopes of regaining German public approval. 

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Stricter border patrols and the potential for political tensions within the Schengen area will make it harder for people to enter and leave the country. They will also turn away asylum seekers from Germany.

Leaders, such as Tusk and Karner, worry the implementation will make it easier for people to turn at the borders, ultimately forcing migrants to return to the countries they arrived from. This could eventually lead to a burden on these frontline nations, leading to legal and humanitarian challenges. It risks the violation of international asylum laws through denying the right to seek protection.

Germany has traditionally been welcoming of migrants. Germany took in just below 1 million Syrians after the Syrian civil war in 2015, and following the war in Ukraine, the nation took in roughly 1.2 million arrivals.

Since the German border controls were announced, France has announced it will follow in the footsteps of Germany, implementing stricter border controls along the borders of its six neighbouring countries. Some critics argue this implementation may mark the end of the Schengen zone. Historically, temporary checks were permitted in the case of state emergencies or other exceptions that posed as threats to public security. However, with an increasing far-right sentiment across Europe, pushing for tighter border controls, this EU unity is at risk.