• Brazil’s president Lula’s support for offshore oil drilling at the mouth of the Amazon river has revealed a gap between his climate rhetoric and policy actions.
• The president’s claims of oil as a tool for funding the nation’s green transition raises questions about Lula’s position as a global climate leader.
• The trade-offs have weakened Lula’s credibility and threaten to marginalise indigenous communities in global climate discussions.

Why is Lula’s heat level COLD?

Answer: Despite his pro-climate rhetoric, the prioritisation of economic interests threaten ecological preservation in the Amazon.

Since the beginning of his first term as President of Brazil in 2003, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has consistently pursued a pro-climate agenda. However, his cold climate stance stems from his recent optimism  about offshore oil exploration. This reveals a growing tension between environmental commitments and economic imperatives.  This tension has been reflected through regulatory disputes, as the Federal Brazilian environmental institute Ibama had repeatedly denied the state-owned oil company Petrobras’ requests to drill for oil in Block 59 since 2023. This area lies 160 kilometres off the coast of the Northern State of Amapá, near the mouth of the Amazon River basin, making it a highly environmentally sensitive area. 

COP30, which Brazil is set to host this year in Belém, places the country under heightened international scrutiny to demonstrate genuine leadership on environmental issues. Hosting the conference in a city which lies on the Amazon river underscores the urgency of protecting the rainforest and highlights the nation’s role in global climate action. Despite this, mounting pressure by Lula’s administration led Ibama to reverse its earlier position and approve Petrobras’ project in May 2025. 

Although Lula claims the funds from the Petrobras offshore oil drilling project will fund the nation’s transition to green energies, the decision highlights Lula’s prioritisation of economic interests over environmental preservation. Indigenous communities have claimed the project will risk damage to ancestral fishing grounds, and environmental agencies have cited risks for extinction of wildlife. Additionally, the area’s environmental sensitivity increases its vulnerability to oil-related accidents such as oil spills. Such a scenario could cause an ecological disaster affecting up to 8 different countries.

What is changing Lula’s heat level?

Answer: A widening gap between climate commitments and domestic policies have drawn criticism and raised doubts about Lula’s environmental agenda.

Lula’s shifting climate credibility stems from the growing disconnect between his international promises and domestic actions. This shift contrasts with his statements at the COP28 in Dubai, where he emphasised the need for economies to become less dependent on fossil fuels. His advocacy for preserving the Amazon, which emphasises the role of responsibility of states in the global transition to a greener world, is increasingly undermined by his policy choices that favor oil drilling projects. 

This policy inconsistency is further reflected in his legislative actions. Lula has approved 335 out of the 398 articles in the Bill PL 2159/2021, otherwise dubbed ‘devastation bill’ by senators. Among the articles approved, one allows the federal government to fast-track “prioritised” projects, a step that would accelerate the oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon River. Although securing support for the amended bill is far from guaranteed for Lula as the country’s conservative-dominated Congress has repeatedly blocked key government proposals throughout his term, such as overturning past presidential vetoes. 

Petrobras has openly expressed gratitude for Lula’s role in ensuring the offshore drilling license in Block 59, signalling close alignment between the Lula’s administration and the petrochemical industry. In this context, the ‘devastation bill’ will likely fast-track the plans in Block 59 by weakening environmental safeguards and limiting oversight. 

This marks a sharp change from the earlier praise from Indigenous communities and environmental agencies for his efforts in reducing deforestation across the country. Both groups were key advocates of Lula throughout the previous election. 

Now, these same groups are heavily criticising and resisting the oil drilling plans, particularly in the Equatorial margin, where Indigenous communities warn of severe damage to ancestral fishing grounds. Although environmental agencies, such as Ibama, possess the power to block drilling licenses for such projects, their decisions are increasingly overridden by increasing political pressure and face reduced autonomy and budget constraints. 

What is driving Lula?

Answer: The effort to maintain global climate leadership while pursuing economic growth highlights the trade-offs shaping Lula’s environmental agenda.

Lula aims to position Brazil as a global climate leader and a sustainable development champion, particularly in the lead up to the COP30, which Brazil will host. The COP30 will center its discussions around the Paris Agreement. His strategy is deeply rooted in a desire to leave a lasting legacy defined by economic growth, improved income distribution, expanded access to education, and greater social inclusion. These goals, amongst others, have long been central to his political identity and are now being rearticulated through the lens of sustainable development. At the same time, domestic economic pressures and the need for revenue make oil exploration an attractive tool for financing these plans.

However, international signals remain mixed. The recent delay in the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation, despite the EU being one of Brazil’s largest importers of wood, exemplifies how global climate commitments are being de-prioritised. In addition, his decision to join the Charter of Cooperation, a discussion forum linked to OPEC+, suggests a pivot away from consolidating energy-based alliances rather than moving away from fossil fuels, despite his previous emphasis on the importance of renewable energies.

Lula also sees expanding oil production as a way to stimulate investments, particularly in regions where unemployment remains high. Such actions not only impact global efforts for environmental conservation, but also weaken external pressures and incentives that often drive domestic environmental efforts. These moves highlight the balancing act between sustaining Brazil’s economy and meeting international climate targets.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Lula’s mixed actions weaken Brazil’s climate credibility and risk undermining indigenous communities’ voices in global environmental decision-making.

Hosting the COP30 in the Amazon (often referred to as planet Earth’s lungs) is seen as a powerful gesture, signalling Brazil’s commitment to forests and indigenous rights. In Brazil, Indigenous activists such as Txai Suruí, who spoke at the COP28, and Paulo Galvão, have become key voices in climate discussions. 

Across Latin America, other activists such as Nemonte Nenquimo have amplified the efforts in acknowledging the importance of Indigenous knowledge in protecting wildlife. As Brazil takes on an increasingly prominent role in international climate forums, its inclusion and approach to Indigenous rights shapes the ways in which these voices are heard worldwide, moulding the authority of Indigenous contributions to climate solutions.

Despite the drilling project in Block 59, at the fifth Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organisation summit that was held in Bogotá in August 2025 the membering nations announced their support for a framework to establish the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a $125 billion forest protection fund. Set for formal launch by Brazil at the COP30 in November, the plan includes a stronger governance role for Indigenous communities and introduces a new requirement that countries protect all types of forests to qualify for funding. As a further safeguard the plan prohibits the use of the fund for investments in oil and gas projects. 

However, his plans for offshore drilling threatens the ways in which Indigenous perspectives are valued in global environmental discussions. The resistance from Indigenous communities and federal prosecutors further underscores the tensions between state-led development initiatives and environmental and social rights, raising concerns about the coherence and credibility of Lula’s climate commitments. In a time when Earth’s seven out of nine planetary boundaries are now breached, this inconsistency hinders national and multilateral efforts to present a unified front on climate action.