• Netanyahu has ordered Operation Rising Lion against Iran’s nuclear facilities and its top military officials. 
• The operation successfully weakened Iran without much backlash from Israel’s allies.  
• These attacks managed to successfully divert attention from Netanyahu’s domestic troubles with his corruption trial, the IDF’s actions in Gaza and a fragile coalition. 

Why is Netanyahu HOT striking against Iran?

Answer: Netanyahu has ordered Operation Rising Lion against Iran’s nuclear facilities and the IRGC’s senior officials, projecting strength across the region and humiliating its biggest adversary. 

On June 13th, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the IDF and the Mossad to commence Operation Rising Lion, a large-scale and long-prepared attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran. The targets of this operation were nuclear facilities across Iran, nuclear scientists, as well as top military commanders of the IRGC. 

The full extent of Israel’s attack on Iran has not been fully verified yet, as the attacks were ongoing throughout June 13th. However, initial reports indicated the operation’s targets were successfully hit. The attack was the largest on Iran since the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988). On the same day, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, ordered retaliatory strikes on Israel.

Netanyahu was quick to inform Israel’s closest allies and address the public of his decision to attack Iran (the United States was informed before the attack). He argued that Iran was capable of developing nuclear weapons “within days” and that the attacks would continue “for as many days as it takes” to prevent the Islamic Republic from ever developing them.

What is changing Netanyahu’s heat level?

Answer: A successful execution of the operation without much backlash from Israel’s allies allows Netanyahu to project strength across the Middle East. 

Since Donald Trump started his term on January 20th of this year, Netanyahu has had almost unchecked freedom in operation across the Middle East. This comes after the Biden administration had already witnessed Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and the Houthis in 2024 with more leeway than previous administrations. As a result, Netanyahu was able to project exceptional strength across the Middle East in 2024, and with the June 13th attacks on Iran, this image of military dominance continues to grow. In line with this, the Israeli security bubble leaked details showcasing the scale of the attacks and infiltration of Iran’s defence apparatus in an attempt to showcase strength. 

On Operation Rising Lion, Netanyahu’s most important ally gave a green light or at least did not object. However, immediately after Israel’s attack on Iran commenced, the United States stressed that it was not involved in the operation. This comes after current efforts of the Trump administration to negotiate another nuclear agreement with Iran, after previously unilaterally exiting the JCPOA negotiated by former President Barack Obama. Despite reiterating that the US was not involved in the attacks, Trump stated this could “help” the negotiations. On the same day, the US forces in the Middle East supported the IDF defending Israel from Iran’s retaliatory strikes and showing that Netanyahu continues to receive unwavering U.S. support.

One downside of Netanyahu’s aggressive foreign policy in the Middle East, including Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, is the waning support amongst its traditional allies in Europe. Since the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel on October 7th 2023, European support for Israel has gone from the maximum degree imaginable – exasperatedly backing Israel’s military operation in Gaza until very recently – to mere statements assuring “Israel’s right to self-defence” while calling for “deescalation” from both sides. 

What is driving Netanyahu?

Answer: A window of opportunity to shut the door on domestic troubles allows Netanyahu to cement his image as Israel’s ‘ultimate protector’ in the eyes of his supporters.

Benjamin Netanyahu has long warned of the threats to the State of Israel of Iran possessing nuclear weapons. He believes that by significantly weakening Iran and its military capabilities, and by eroding Iran’s network of militias (Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis) surrounding Israel, he will secure his legacy as the great protector of the State. Additionally, weakened Iranian proxies as well as de facto Israeli control over Syria’s airspace have opened a window of opportunity for Netanyahu to strike Iran without much risk. On top of that, the IAEA board declaring Iran in breach of non-proliferation obligations allowed for additional cover from international scrutiny.

Furthermore, Netanyahu benefits from a very fast-changing news cycle through “flooding the zone” strategy with as many newsworthy actions as possible in a very short period of time. This allows his government to enact controversial policies and foreign policy actions without civil society, the judiciary or the media holding him and his government accountable. 

Keeping Israel in a constant state of war benefits Netanyahu’s agenda domestically, keeping the focus away from his personal corruption trial. His cross-examination just started on June 3rd and was suspended on June 10th due to him feeling sick. Additionally, it distracts from the IDF’s actions and tactics in Gaza, which have produced humanitarian conditions that remain critical. And ultimately, it quells the fragility of his own coalition. On Wednesday, he defused a threat to his coalition by warning a dissatisfied smaller party (United Torah Judaism) that, given the Iranian threat, this was not the time for dissolution or early elections. 

On top of that, the more radical factions within Netanyahu’s coalition are actively pushing him to pursue more radical policies. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have long been taking advantage of Netanyahu’s need to remain Prime Minister in pursuit of their agendas. Netanyahu’s prospects to prolong and interrupt his corruption trial are highest as prime minister. 

Finally, the Trump administration’s focus on negotiations with Iran also played a role in the timing of this operation. Netanyahu and his coalition prefer the United States to engage Iran militarily for the maximum success of its own ambitions. An agreement between the United States and Iran, which Trump would certainly see as a personal victory, ends Israeli military ambitions against Iran. 

What does this mean for you?

Answer: We are likely to observe an even more emboldened Netanyahu in the coming months and an Islamic Republic seeking revenge.

The medium-term outcome of Netanyahu’s decision to strike Iran at such a scale cannot be predicted at this point in time. If you read this article from the Middle East, chances are you will have a few sleepless nights in the coming weeks. Iran will retaliate against Israel; the only question is to what extent and who will be affected. A quick retaliation in the form of missile fire took place the same day; however, a more coordinated attack will take time as senior IRGC leadership is weakened and the extent of Israeli infiltration is uncertain.

Last year, following the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, killing multiple high-ranking Iranian military officials and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas in Tehran, the Islamic Republic exercised restraint. Its responses to Israeli actions caused minimal damage and mainly allowed the government in Tehran to save face. However, after an attack of this scale and humiliation for Ayatollah Khamenei, a weakened and leaderless IRGC is increasingly under pressure to restore pride.