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This section will explore the current environmental challenges that Namibia is facing, they will provide a comprehensive outlook on the climate situation in the country, as well as the impact of adverse effects of climate change on local communities, on both social and economic levels. These effects hinder Namibia’s development, which is why the leader was dedicated to addressing them. 

Moreover, during his lifetime, Geingob, as any other political leader, needed public support and positive public opinion in order to get reelected and stay in office, which ultimately was his goal too. Finally, Hage Geingob understood the value and need for foreign investment into the country. These funds would provide a steady stream of money to develop Namibia.

Namibia is confronted with significant environmental challenges, causing Hage Geingob to acknowledge the necessity for action. The most significant challenges currently facing the region include desertification, extreme weather conditions and rising temperatures. These challenges have had a profound impact on the most important sectors of the economy, with agriculture accounting for 8.83% of the GDP and employing 70% of the population. 

Environmental Challenge #1: Desertification

According to ‘UNCCD Terminology’, desertification is defined as the degradation of land in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions due to human activities and climate variations, which may result in the permanent loss of land productivity. Most of Namibia’s land gets little rain or is too barren to support vegetation,  92% of its land is considered semiarid, arid or hyper-arid.  The primary cause of this phenomenon in Namibia is deforestation which has resulted in an impoverished soil base due to overtilling and bush encroachment. 

Approximately 70% of the Namibian population engages in subsistence farming, relying heavily on rain-fed crop and livestock production for their livelihood. Land degradation has the greatest impact on these individuals and communities. The land desertification is likely to result in the loss of their livelihoods, leading to poverty.

The financial impact of land degradation is estimated to be 1.6 billion US dollars, equivalent to 19% of the country’s GDP. Between July and September 2023, 22% of the Namibian population were experiencing widespread acute food insecurity, with this figure projected to rise to 26% from October 2023 to March 2024.

Hage Geingob was particularly concerned about the socio-economic effects of desertification on Namibia’s population. On top of this, a significant proportion of Namibian exports, which contribute to the country’s development, are lost due to decreased productivity, lower crop yields, and overall agricultural challenges.

Environmental Challenge #2: Extreme weather events

Extreme weather events are defined as unusual occurrences in terms of their traits, or characteristics. These traits include magnitude, location, extent, and timing. In this section, the extreme weather events of Namibia will be explored, with a focus on those related to water and water cycles. These include flooding, droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns. Extreme weather events are a significant concern in Namibia, given the country’s arid climate and reliance on water resources for agriculture, and other significant components of the local economy.

Floods

Namibia has experienced significant flooding as a result of heavy rainfall in the southern and eastern regions of Angola and in the northern and eastern regions of Namibia. In the first half of 2011 only 5,000 individuals were displaced and 62 others were killed in total. Furthermore, the floods in 2011 have resulted in extensive damage to infrastructure, including roads and 20 health clinics. They have isolated communities by disrupting transportation and communication, and affected  access to essential services. The recurring floods have also devastated agricultural lands, destroyed crops and grazing areas,  leading to food shortages and economic hardships. 

Droughts

Persistent drought conditions have been affecting Namibia for a period exceeding seven years. The Namibian government has declared national emergencies on six occasions: 1992/1993, 1995/1996, 2012/2013, 2013/2014, 2015/2016, and 2018/2019 due to extreme drought events. By the end of 2019, Namibia was experiencing the worst drought on record in 90 years. .

In 2022, the regions of Namibia that were primarily affected by the drought were in the north-west resulting  in 750,000 people suffering from food insecurity. Furthermore, there were more instances of people becoming nomadic and of cross-border population movements, so-called climate migrants. Over 55.6 million people were affected in the region during the 2021/2022 El Niño-induced drought. The increased drought-induced migration is usually associated with competition and increased stress in resource-scarce areas, which ultimately leads to conflict. The migration is typically between communities and across borders. In 2021, Namibia hosted over 4,000 Angolans who had left their countries in search of improved livelihood opportunities.

The following graph presents Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which presents the water availability in the presented area. For context the scale reaching the point of -2 would indicate a severe drought.

Source: The World Bank.

The financial cost of the drought is considerable. Between 2003 and 2004, the Namibian government spent over 275 million Namibian dollars on emergency relief alone. The total damage caused by the drought is estimated at 175 million USD. 

Change in rainfall patterns

Namibia experiences a diverse range of precipitation patterns, which are expected to shift towards extremes as a result of climate change. This will result in some areas experiencing prolonged periods of drought, while others will be prone to flooding, particularly in the water basins.

To illustrate this point, the north-west region is characterised by high humidity and significant rainfall, with an average of over 600mm per year in 2012. In contrast, the south-east region has much lower precipitation, with an average of 0-50mm per year. There is greater uncertainty regarding precipitation than temperature, which is easier to predict in the long term for Namibia. Global Climate Models (GCMs) suggest that the state might experience a 10% to 30% reduction in rainfall between 2050 and 2080, with the greatest changes occurring in the northwest and central regions.

The regions that depend on rain-fed agriculture (which relies on dry land-crop production) include Zambezi, Kavango East and West, and may have a potentially  detrimental impact on crucial industries, such as agriculture. In addition to affecting the local economy, it may also give rise to other social problems, including poverty, malnutrition and food insecurity.

Geingob cared because such extreme weather events have a significant socio-economic impact. Furthermore, the adverse effects of weather events on the local economy are multifaceted. These include the disruption of agricultural activities (due to insufficient or excessive water), the impact on mining operations (flooding of mines), and the influence on fisheries (such as changes in ocean currents). These three sectors represent the primary contributors to Namibia’s GDP and present a significant challenge to the country’s ability to generate revenue through exports. However, the lack of export revenue and a lack of a strong position in international negotiations are significant obstacles to this goal.

The influx of climate migrants is a significant challenge for the state. Uncontrolled rural-urban migrations have created logistical difficulties and the potential for overcrowding in cities. The following graph presents the cost, both human and financial, of the droughts and floods, as well as epidemics, that Namibia has suffered throughout the last century to exemplify the great stake that Namibia has to act against climate change and the aforementioned effects thereof.

Source: The World Bank.

Furthermore, the unregulated flow of water can facilitate the spread of communicable diseases, particularly in the absence of adequate sanitation. This is also a significant problem, particularly in the context of flooding. Water-borne diseases such as cholera can be exacerbated by moist environments, which also encourage the reproduction of mosquitoes, thereby increasing the risk of malaria, a vector-borne disease.

Environmental Challenge #3: Rise in Average Temperatures

An increase in the average temperature is projected to occur across the country, as a result of global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report indicating that the region of Southern Africa, which includes Namibia, will experience a rise in temperature between two and four degrees Celsius compared to the benchmark of 1961-1990. 

The graph illustrates a range of potential scenarios and their impact on temperature. Regardless of the scenario, temperatures are expected to continue rising. The increased heat and extreme heat conditions will have significant implications for human and animal health, agriculture, and ecosystems. As presented in the following graph:

Source: The World Bank.

This is likely to result in a number of adverse effects, including droughts, dry spells and a significant impact on biodiversity. Additionally, rising sea levels are a further potential consequence, esulting in increasing food insecurity, malnutrition and potential water stress.

In his speech at COP 26, Hage Geingob explored the unfortunate and unfair position of Africa in man-made global warming, given the continent’s relatively small contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. He highlighted the disproportionate impact of climate change on local states.

The Namibian commitment to the Paris Agreement of 2015 and subsequent call for action and financial support from the High Income Countries (HICs) to help achieve the aims of the Paris agreement (90% of the costs of the climate policies are supposed to be covered by international funding) was accompanied by a further request for $100 billion annually to support the developing states in Africa.

IExRAIA Summer Research Program:

This article is an excerpt from a report about Hage Geingob produced as part of an RAIA research program on climate leaders. For a full picture of Geingob’s climate leadership read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.

Authors: Clara Chikuse and Maja Prokopiuk

Editor: Dario Hasenstab

Project Lead: Francia Morales