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In this, penultimate, section the impact of Hage Geingob’s previously mentioned reforms will be discussed. Their efficiency will be evaluated, as well as how well the government, or the leader himself, managed to transform the aims and values presented in the documents in the real-world setting.

1st Policy: 2011 National Climate Change Policy

Due to the broad nature of the policies stated in the document, there is no clear measurement or detailed outline of how much it has been implemented. The sectors analysed were sustainable access to water, resilient agriculture, and food security with a sustainable resource base.  However, the policy has had significant effects on the country.  It has increased the total renewable energy sources share from 1 406GWh in 2013 to 1 679GWh in 2020. This led to the expansion of wind farms and biomass energy initiatives. As a result, Namibia has reduced its reliance on fossil fuels and decreased greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. The following graph presents that trend:

Source: IEA.

For President Geingob, the policy has provided a clear framework for integrating different sectors of the government and securing much-needed funding. Despite these benefits, the broad scope of the policy has made it difficult to clearly see and attribute specific effects on him or his administration.

2nd Policy: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)

As the project is still relatively new, there is currently no evidence of any discernible effects. However, it is anticipated that the establishment of new relations with Germany will have a significant impact in the future. The Government of the Republic of Namibia and Hyphen Hydrogen Energy have signed a US$10 billion green hydrogen project agreement at an official ceremony. The joint venture, Hyphen, is between Enertag (a German company) and Nicholas Holdings Limited. It is anticipated that the project will result in the creation of 15,000 direct jobs during the first four years of construction and further 3,000 permanent jobs, with 90% being locals. 

These factors have collectively contributed to an enhancement in Namibia’s international standing. This is of paramount importance to Geingob, as it serves to facilitate the successful realisation of state-building objectives and the consolidation of a robust international position. The expansion of Namibia’s existing alliances with other countries, in light of its abundant natural resources, represents a significant strategic opportunity. The country’s relations with Germany, in particular, have assumed a pivotal role in the context of green hydrogen.

The pursuit of foreign funding, which represents a crucial element in the realisation of Namibia’s development aspirations, has also emerged as a critical area of focus. The enhancement of employment rates, in turn, has the potential to serve as a catalyst for the country’s overall development as was Hage Geingob’s goal. 

There has been significant criticism towards Namibia in terms of this policy claiming it is unachievable. 

Firstly, even the delivery of said 10% of funds that are to be sourced from international investment are said to be challenging to achieve for the Namibian economy since there would be a need for policy and institutional reforms across many sectors. Additionally, there was a GDP deficit between 2021 and 2022 due to still very prominent post-pandemic economic struggles. Furthermore, there is conflicting legislation in Namibia, as the cut on GHG might negatively affect economic growth plans such as Harambee Prosperity Plan II.

On top of that, the state presents conflicting stances on climate. This is exemplified by the fact that despite its great advocacy for climate action, the government still allows for oil extraction. This lack of consistency in its goals might discourage potential investors from donating and financially supporting Namibia, as they would prefer investing in a consistent country. 

Source: Namibia’s NDC update.

As shown on the table above Namibia will finance 90% of this plan through foreign assistance and international investment. Therefore, there is a crucial need for the state to do everything in their power to strengthen their position in the international arena instead of committing to conflicting actions, such as the aforementioned oil extraction permits.

The last portion of criticism is aimed towards the unrealistic cut of GHG emissions since it needs very well-coordinated and well-organised reforms across several sectors, which might be difficult to achieve in such a short period of time. It has been pointed out that due to Namibia’s nature as a carbon sink cutting the emissions even more will be extremely challenging and might negatively affect local populations, for instance banning or restricting fuel-driven cars might make transportation unavailable for many, as electric cars are still costly. It remains unclear in existing legislation how many of such problems would be solved. 

3rd Policy: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA)

For this policy, there is not enough data to determine how much of the policy has been implemented. Since it is a non-binding document, which serves more as guidelines it is challenging to find concrete information about impact clearly linked to NAMA; nonetheless, projects discussed in this section were put into action that indirectly result from implementation of NAMA.

One effect has been an increase in shares of renewable resources. Encourages investment in solar panels and alas, solar capacity has increased from 15 MW in 2013 to about 176 MW by 2022. In addition, Namibia has declared to reduce GHG from 89% to 91% until 2030. The declaration of the goal led to the opening of a lot of job opportunities, e.g. in the technological sector, or management of new power plants, directly around 2,000. This evinces the fight against poverty. 

In the agriculture sector, land has been taken under protection to avoid desertification and preserve its potential, there has been Increased water efficiency and increased crop yields, and an increase in job opportunities. As presented on the following table, NAMA regulated an increase in state protected areas, and conservancies. These efforts aimed to increase the biodiversity of the land, and thus, prevent land degradation, which served to the advantage of people occupied with agriculture. For instance, the table indicates the percentage of land dedicated to communal conservancies as an ‘achieved’ goal. It grew from 0.0% in 1995 to 19.4% in 2013, overreaching the goal which was 15.0%.

Source: NPC.

In forestry, there have been big reforestation and deforestation projects, including the introduction of zones of protection against deforestation. The document outlines the status quo of green areas, such as community forests and their target by 2015. Taking this example, community forests’ baseline stood at 0.0% of all land by 2003, which grew to 4% in 2012 and the target by 2015 was 5%, which in the document is described as ‘on track to achieve’. 

Nowadays we can evaluate that the goal was achieved since the community forests now cover over 72 537 km² which accounts for about 8.8% of the area of Namibia. These efforts have also led to a decrease in deforestation by a fifth and a tree cover gain with Zambezi and Kavango regions contributing 75% to the tree gain. Zambezi had the most tree cover gain of 7.37kha from 2000 to 2020, which totalled 109kha in stable forests in 2020. 

In this table below, shows clearer the change in forestry in Namibia:

Source: GFW.

It is clear that there have been forest conservation programs to fight deforestation. However, the effects of climate change – including loss of biodiversity due to heat, lack of water, or even man-made activities, such as deforestation – are still evident with the loss of 560 hectares of forests. 

The NAMA policy affected Hage Geingob greatly. The policy has had several impacts on the economy, such as increased employment or simply supporting people that are already employed. An increase in income in the economy means more potential to export agricultural products. Many of the projects introduced because of NAMA helped attract foreign investment and thus, development of Namibia.

IExRAIA Summer Research Program:

This article is an excerpt from a report about Hage Geingob produced as part of an RAIA research program on climate leaders. For a full picture of Geingob’s climate leadership read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.

Authors: Clara Chikuse and Maja Prokopiuk

Editor: Dario Hasenstab

Project Lead: Francia Morales