• Andry Rajoelina’s heat level is freezing after widespread protests and the defection of the CAPSAT military unit removed his control and led to a transitional government.
• Rajoelina’s actions were driven by the need to preserve executive authority, maintain loyalist networks, and protect financial interests. 
• His case shows that organised youth movements can swiftly influence politics, with long-term effects still unclear.

Why is Rajoelina’s HEAT LEVEL Freezing?

Answer: Rajoelina lost power after protests escalated and the military defected, enabling a transitional government.

On September 25th, 2025, widespread protests broke out across Madagascar, initially sparked by chronic disruptions in water and electricity services. These demonstrations quickly grew into a broader movement expressing public dissatisfaction with government policies and economic conditions under President Andry Rajoelina. 

His administration attempted to calm protestors by dismissing his energy minister and dissolving the government, but these measures did not reduce public unrest. Critics highlighted projects such as the new urban cable car, a multimillion-dollar transport initiative in Antananarivo designed to connect the city’s hills. The project was criticised for serving tourists and the elite rather than addressing poor infrastructure and fuel shortages. It became an example of government spending that failed to meet the needs of most citizens. The ongoing service failures, combined with perceptions of misaligned priorities, contributed to escalating protests that increasingly demanded Rajoelina’s resignation.

The situation intensified when the elite CAPSAT military unit, which had previously supported Rajoelina, refused to follow orders to suppress the protests and effectively joined the demonstrators’ cause on October 12th. Facing the loss of military support and potential personal risk, Rajoelina left the country. Following his departure, lawmakers acted to impeach him for abandonment of office, removing his remaining institutional authority. Colonel Michael Randrianirina subsequently assumed leadership of the transitional government, filling the vacuum created by Rajoelina’s exit. 

What is changing Rajoelina’s heat level?

Answer: Rajoelina’s political downfall was cemented when the military defected and the transitional government revoked his citizenship, permanently blocking his return to power.

Andry Rajoelina’s political downfall was consolidated by the decisive intervention of Madagascar’s military, whose influence has long been central to the country’s political order. The elite CAPSAT unit, under the command of Colonel Michael Randrianirina, played a pivotal role by refusing to follow Rajoelina’s directives during the nationwide unrest. 

This act of defiance, carried out by the same unit that had helped Rajoelina seize power in 2009, marked a complete reversal of loyalty and effectively eliminated his ability to govern. Once the military assumed control, Randrianirina’s installation as head of state institutionalised the change in leadership and provided the framework for legal measures that would ensure Rajoelina’s permanent exclusion from politics.

The military’s seizure of authority functioned as a decisive veto over Rajoelina’s future. By monopolising control of the state apparatus, it prevented any potential counteraction or restoration of his authority. Madagascar’s armed forces have historically acted as the ultimate arbiter during moments of political crisis, and in this case, their intervention extended beyond a mere change in leadership. It redefined the balance of power by converting a political defeat into an irreversible structural shift. The CAPSAT’s defection and subsequent control of government institutions thus transformed Rajoelina’s loss of authority into a permanent political freeze.

Building on this foundation, the transitional government employed legal mechanisms to formalise his disqualification. Under Randrianirina’s leadership, Prime Minister Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo issued a decree revoking Rajoelina’s Malagasy citizenship, citing constitutional provisions that prohibit individuals with dual nationality from holding public office. 

This decision not only invoked existing law but strategically exploited a long-standing vulnerability in Rajoelina’s political career. By combining the military’s coercive power with the government’s legal authority, the transitional regime closed all avenues for Rajoelina’s return. The coordinated actions of these two veto players, military and executive, demonstrated the enduring strength of institutional alliances in reshaping Madagascar’s political landscape and ensuring the definitive end of Rajoelina’s political influence.

What is driving Rajoelina?

Answer: Rajoelina’s actions were driven by the need to preserve power, loyalist networks, and financial interests.

Andry Rajoelina’s decision-making was primarily driven by the objective of maintaining executive authority and protecting the structure of political control built since his 2009 rise to power. His political trajectory, beginning as a young former DJ who positioned himself as the representative of generational and national renewal under the Tanora malaGasy Vonona (TGV) movement, shaped his leadership style. This identity relied on visible, large-scale development projects, such as the Antananarivo cable car system and major stadium constructions, which projected an image of modernisation and stability. 

During the recent crisis, Rajoelina responded to public unrest in the same way he had during the 2009 political upheaval and subsequent demonstrations. He dismissed his cabinet and accused demonstrators of acting under foreign influence, reinforcing his image as a defender of national sovereignty. This approach illustrates a consistent psychological drive to preserve control and affirm his role as a central authority figure, making voluntary resignation an unviable option within his political framework.

Rajoelina’s political strategies focused on maintaining loyalty among key allies in his administration. By relying on personal connections rather than formal institutional mechanisms, he created a system where power and stability depended on reciprocal loyalty. As a result, he tended to view public dissent not just as opposition to specific policies, but as a direct challenge to the networks and authority that upheld his government.

By attributing internal unrest to external interference, Rajoelina attempted to reassert legitimacy and regain political momentum. His actions demonstrate how his leadership was guided by a need to maintain cohesion among supporters and prevent fragmentation within his governing base, which depended on continued access to political resources and patronage.
In addition to political motivations, Rajoelina faced material pressures linked to his administration’s financial networks. Since 2009, his government had been associated with policies that favored a limited group of allies, including exemptions to the national ban on the export of rosewood, a valuable natural resource subject to international restrictions. Such decisions, while publicly justified as temporary economic measures, benefited business figures closely aligned with his administration.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Rajoelina’s fall shows that digitally organized youth can influence politics, but long-term effects remain uncertain.

The collapse of Andry Rajoelina’s government represents a pivotal shift in how political power operates in the 21st century, marking the rise of Generation Z as a decisive and organized political actor. The events in Madagascar demonstrated that digital mobilisation can translate into rapid, real-world political change, bypassing traditional party structures and hierarchies. 

This development is not isolated: similar youth-led digital movements have emerged in Nepal, where protesters pressured the government into reform, and in Serbia, where online organization has sustained long-term opposition campaigns. Across Africa, movements such as Kenya’s protests against the 2024 finance bill and Morocco’s Gen Z 212 network indicate a broader continental trend. Leaders now face the challenge of responding to a generation that uses digital tools to coordinate dissent, hold officials accountable, and amplify political grievances in real time.

In the short term, the fall of Rajoelina introduces regional uncertainty. His removal, achieved through mass mobilisation, ultimately depended on the military’s intervention. While these movements have demonstrated their capacity to effect rapid change, the durability of their impact remains uncertain. Some may produce democratic renewal, while others risk triggering renewed cycles of instability if institutional transitions fail to follow. 

In the long term, Madagascar’s instability carries significant global and economic implications. The country’s key exports, vanilla, gemstones, and other mineral resources, play an important role in international supply chains, and political unrest could disrupt trade routes across the Indian Ocean. 
The domestic crisis has also deepened humanitarian challenges in Madagascar’s drought-affected southern regions, increasing dependence on international aid and multilateral support. Beyond its immediate effects, Rajoelina’s downfall signals a broader structural shift in global politics: a generation accustomed to digital coordination is redefining how legitimacy and accountability are expressed. This transition underscores the necessity for both regional and international actors to adapt to a political landscape where technology enables collective action that can swiftly alter national trajectories.