IE University x RAIA Research Program 2025

Anthony Nyong’s development-driven leadership has the objective of not only mitigating emissions but also to reshape the continent’s socio-economic reality when tackling climate change. His leadership has been defined by his focus on climate adaptation that protects lives and preserves development gains. In particular, he has advocated for integrated climate-development policies that respond to these events not just as natural hazards, but as systemic threats to sustainable growth and human well-being. The section below will investigate and assess the impact of his policies that have been presented in the above segment. 

Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP 2016–2020)

The primary goal of the CCAP was to mainstream climate considerations into every sector of the AfDB’s activities, including infrastructure, agriculture, energy, and transport. This meant embedding climate resilience and low-carbon principles directly into project planning and implementation. Under Nyong’s direction, the AfDB committed to allocating 40% of its total project approvals to climate-related initiatives by 2020. This goal was surpassed in 2019, with 41% of approvals dedicated to climate projects. However, in 2020, the percentage dropped to 34%, representing $1.93 billion in climate finance. The Bank attributed this decline to the reallocation of funds in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, which necessitated immediate support for health systems and economic recovery across the continent. Nonetheless, as shown in figure 6, from 2016 to 2019 alone, the CCAP mobilized $12.4 billion in climate finance, demonstrating the plan’s effectiveness in catalyzing large-scale investment in sustainable development.

The AfDB has prioritized adaptation finance, with 63% of its climate funding by 2018 directed toward building resilience in sectors like agriculture, water, and urban planning. It secured over $170 million from the Green Climate Fund to support programs like LEAF, aimed at attracting private investment in off-grid renewables. Still, this fell short of the Bank’s broader goal of mobilizing large-scale concessional finance. Complementary efforts included a $500 million Green Bond in 2015 and the creation of the Africa Green Banks Initiative, designed to help local institutions access blended finance. While these steps reflect innovation, actual mobilization remains limited by institutional capacity and investor caution.

Among the flagship initiatives launched under the CCAP was the Desert to Power Initiative, which attempts to provide solar electricity to 250 million people across the Sahel region. By focusing on decentralized renewable systems, the idea was to provide access and climate adaptation simultaneously. Nyong’s insistence on policy alignment with Africa’s Agenda 2063 ensured that climate action was linked to economic transformation and social mobility. Launched in 2019, the Desert to Power Initiative has moved beyond planning into concrete implementation. By the end of 2023,according to their annual report, the AfDB reported seven investment projects and two regional technical assistance programs under way, representing roughly USD 600 million in value. These projects are expected to deliver 785 MW of new solar capacity and more than 470,000 connections, ultimately benefiting over six million people across the Sahel. In addition, about USD 520 million in co-financing was mobilized during 2023, though the broader ambition of reaching 250 million people by 2030 remains far from realization. Progress is therefore tangible but uneven, as financing gaps, insecurity, and logistical barriers continue to slow the rollout.

The CCAP also played a crucial role in supporting countries to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, reinforcing the alignment between national climate strategies and global commitments. Since 2017, the AfDB has supported African countries’ climate commitments through the Africa NDC Hub, a platform designed to help governments implement their NDCs under the Paris Agreement. The Hub has provided a mix of technical assistance, policy alignment support, and institutional coordination, often in the form of workshops and national capacity-building sessions focused on integrating NDCs into development plans, budget frameworks, and monitoring systems. 

Countries like Gabon and Côte d’Ivoire, for instance, received tailored support to revise their NDCs, improve reporting to the UNFCCC, and align climate targets with national development cycles. The Hub helped normalize NDC implementation as a standard element of state planning across the continent. This broader trend was reinforced through the Bank’s Country Strategy Papers (CSPs), 90% of which had already integrated climate mainstreaming by 2019. From 2020 onward, climate integration was made a formal requirement in CSP design, meaning that almost all national-level development partnerships with the AfDB had to incorporate climate goals. This shift did not stop with the end of the CCAP however. Under the Climate Change and Green Growth Strategy (2021–2030), climate mainstreaming remains in place through project screening tools, climate risk assessments, and funding targets that align with member countries’ NDCs. 

The CCAP also strengthened Africa’s climate policy landscape through the development of Country Climate and Green Growth Profiles. Several African countries have drawn on these to shape their own NDCs and NAPs.The profiles serve as a diagnostic tool, helping to clarify institutional gaps and financing priorities, particularly in relation to project bankability and private sector mobilisation. Evidence of policy uptake from the Country Climate and Green Growth Profiles has been observed in a number of African countries. Among the 25 profiles published under the CCAP framework, approximately ten to twelve countries demonstrated tangible alignment between profile findings and national climate strategies. 

For instance, Nigeria, Ghana, and Namibia referenced these diagnostics in the development of their updated NDCs and NAPs, using them to identify priority sectors and financing pathways. Additional examples include Benin, Mozambique, and Zambia, where profile data informed institutional readiness assessments and project pipelines for international climate finance access. While uptake has not been uniform, the incorporation of AfDB profile insights into national-level planning illustrates how CCAP tools can and have contributed to enhancing policy coherence and implementation capacity across a subset of member states. 

By embedding climate goals into core development planning, mobilizing a substantial amount of financial resources, and supporting institutional capacity across the continent, the CCAP advanced the Bank’s strategic alignment while also shaping national and regional responses to climate change. Nevertheless, it is complex to assess the full precise impact of the plan. As a strategic framework rather than a direct implementation mechanism, many of its outcomes are indirect, long-term, and influenced by broader institutional and political factors. This makes it challenging to quantify its effectiveness or to draw clear causal links between the policy and specific development results. 

African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI)

The ACMI main objective is to unlock Africa’s potential and thus become a leading supplier of carbon credits. Although the ACMI is still in its early stages, initial impacts are already visible. In 2022, Africa issued over 279 million carbon credits, the majority of which came from renewable energy projects and nature-based solutions. Although this number is near the long-term goal, a large portion of it is due to voluntary market activity and legacy credits rather than pipelines unique to ACMI. With national-level directions and regulatory frameworks only beginning to take shape, real annual output under ACMI’s structure is still being scaled. For instance, Nigeria became the first African country to develop a national carbon market strategy in alignment with ACMI’s roadmap. The strategy includes establishing a national registry, setting baselines, and preparing to issue credits by 2025. Similarly, Kenya and Mozambique have been identified as priority countries in ACMI’s first-phase implementation due to their potential in forestry and renewable energy sectors. 

The African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) has set itself a bold financial ambition. While the numbers appear perhaps too bold due to Africa’s marginal role in global carbon trading so far, early indicators suggest the initiative has at least started to shift momentum. As of 2023, $650 million in purchase pledges had already been secured ($200 million from HSBC-Pollination and $450 million from the United Arab Emirates). These aren’t insignificant sums, especially for a market that is still maturing in the region. At the same time, it’s hard not to notice that these pledges fall far short of what is needed to meet ACMI’s goals, let alone cover Africa’s broader climate financing gap. The initiative is also still working through the policy and regulatory groundwork needed to scale (standards, registries, and legal frameworks) which may help explain why funding commitments have outpaced actual credit generation in many cases. Even so, the fact that major international actors are investing at this early stage suggests some level of confidence in Africa’s potential as a carbon market supplier.

There have been tangible results at the national level that point to the initiative’s early impact as well. In Kenya, a 2023 carbon credit auction raised $6.8 million, with funds directed toward mangrove restoration and clean cookstove distribution. These two interventions not only store or reduce carbon but also generate local health and environmental co-benefits. Meanwhile, Gabon’s REDD+ efforts have reportedly generated more than 90 million rainforest credits, resulting in $17 million in payments. That may sound small in global terms, but for Gabon, it represents a relatively successful attempt to link forest protection with financial returns. Community-level impacts such as job creation, health gains, and ecosystem restoration are already being documented, even as the broader market architecture remains under construction. ACMI is still evolving, and its future remains uncertain, but there is at least some early evidence that it is capable of delivering real-world results. 

From a global emissions perspective, the African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) is positioning Africa not just as a beneficiary of climate finance, but as an active contributor to climate solutions. In 2021, African countries sold around 22 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent for approximately $123 million, with demand for African credits increasing by over 36% annually since 2016. These figures remain relatively small when viewed against global carbon markets, but ACMI’s goal of scaling to 300 million metric tons annually by 2030 signals a serious intent to shift the continent’s role. Voluntary carbon demand across Africa has surged at a 36 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2016 to 2021, outpacing the global average of 31 percent. Still, Africa has only released a small fraction of its technical carbon potential, and market growth remains constrained by uneven regulatory systems and fragmented registries. 

Nevertheless, projects like the 2023 Kenyan carbon auction, which raised $6.8 million to support clean cookstove distribution and mangrove restoration, show that tangible environmental and social benefits are already being delivered. That auction alone financed the sale of 2.2 million tonnes of carbon credits, tying emissions reductions to community-level improvements in health, livelihoods, and ecosystem resilience. While the true climate impact of offsets remains debated, especially in terms of additionality and permanence, initiatives like these arguably represent one of the few scalable paths where climate mitigation and development priorities overlap in a practical and measurable way.

Mission 300 Africa

Mission 300 Africa has had a measurable impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and accelerating the continent’s low-carbon transition by facilitating the scale-up of renewable energy infrastructure, reducing fossil fuel dependency, and enabling more sustainable development pathways. Although it is not primarily framed as a mitigation program, the initiative contributes to climate change mitigation by promoting systemic decarbonisation in African energy systems. Figure 7 illustrates the progress of Mission 300 Africa toward its goal of connecting 300 million people by 2030. Between July 2023 and June 2024, 12 million people were already connected, while 90 million are linked to World Bank–approved projects currently underway. An additional 148 million people are projected to be connected through future World Bank projects, with the African Development Bank contributing initiatives expected to reach another 50 million people.

By 2024, the AfDB, through Mission 300-linked infrastructure support, had backed the deployment of over 1,000 megawatts (MW) of renewable energy capacity, including solar mini-grids in Madagascar, geothermal projects in Kenya, and wind farms in Ethiopia. These clean energy installations directly replace diesel generators and traditional biomass, both of which remain major sources of carbon dioxide and particulate pollution in Sub-Saharan Africa. The International Energy Agency estimates that diesel generators alone account for over 80 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually across the continent. Displacing these generators with renewables contributes not only to emissions reduction but also to more stable and affordable energy systems.

Grid infrastructure has also been a focus area. In 2024, Mission 300 supported the construction of 2,300 kilometres of new transmission lines, helping to expand regional electricity trade and improve rural electrification. These developments facilitate the integration of intermittent renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, into national grids. This is particularly relevant in countries like Rwanda and Nigeria, where limited grid capacity has historically hindered the scalability of clean energy. Such efforts reduce the carbon intensity of electricity supply, particularly in contexts where power grids have relied on coal, diesel, or heavy fuel oil.

Beyond physical infrastructure, Mission 300 has influenced national energy governance. Twelve African countries adopted national energy compacts under the initiative, committing to phased reforms such as removing fossil fuel subsidies, improving energy efficiency standards, and expanding support for off-grid renewables. Kenya’s compact, for example, prioritised geothermal integration, while Rwanda emphasised distributed solar and regulatory reform for mini-grid operators. These policy shifts create long-term conditions favourable to decarbonisation, aligning national energy planning with global climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.

The programme also addresses emissions indirectly by reducing reliance on biomass for household cooking. Over 900 million Africans still lack access to clean cooking technologies, with widespread use of charcoal and firewood contributing to both forest degradation and household air pollution. Replacing these with electrified cooking or biogas alternatives improves health outcomes and reduces deforestation-related emissions. According to the World Health Organization, indoor air pollution from traditional cooking methods contributes to approximately 500,000 premature deaths per year in Africa and is a major source of black carbon, a short-lived but highly potent climate forcer.

Importantly, Mission 300 integrates climate adaptation and mitigation, enabling a just energy transition. Its emphasis on decentralised energy systems such as off-grid solar and small-scale hydropower, avoids the carbon and cost intensity of large-scale grid expansion. Moreover, these systems improve energy access in rural areas, where the social and environmental costs of traditional fossil infrastructure are often highest. This reflects Anthony Nyong’s broader framing of energy access as not just a developmental priority but also a precondition for climate resilience.

In terms of financial mobilisation, the programme has already facilitated over $1.2 billion in pledged investments by supporting feasibility studies, cost-benefit analyses, and environmental impact assessments. These services lower the risk profile of green infrastructure and enhance countries’ capacity to access international climate finance. In Namibia, for instance, Mission 300 helped prepare the country’s largest green hydrogen project, which is expected to supply both domestic and export markets.

Redefining Climate Leadership in Africa

Mission 300, ACMI, and CCAP, solutions Anthony Nyong helped implement, show how African climate leadership has evolved. Sovereignty was the focus of these projects, not charity. By using them, Nyong changed Africa’s role in the climate economy from one of passive recipient to one of active designer, from one of vulnerability to one of solution. Additionally, an organized logic arises from each policy: that adaptation should be included into policy and infrastructure design rather than added on, and that African knowledge systems are just as valuable as any imported model.

IExRAIA Summer Research Program:

This article is an excerpt from a report on Anthony Nyong produced as part of an RAIA research program on climate leaders. For a full picture of Ruto’s climate leadership, including the sources, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.

Authors: Luiza da Costa Carvalho Melo & Sara Tobar Herrera

Editor: Joshua Dario Hasenstab

Project Leads: Roxane de Bergevin & Stefani Obradovic