• Al-Sisi furthered his goal of removing Israeli authority over the Rafah crossing by pressuring the US and Israel into negotiations. 
• His two main objectives since the 2023 Israel-Hamas Conflict have been to manage public anger over Israel’s operations in Gaza and to deter a large influx of Palestinians into Egypt.  
• The closure of the Rafah crossing has exacerbated Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, pushing the population toward starvation and heightening long-term security risks for Egypt and the wider region.

Why is al-Sisi’s heat level HOT?

Answer: Al-Sisi secured talks with US and Israel over control of the Rafah crossing, advancing his goal to remove Israeli authority over the corridor.

On the 7th of May, 2024, as part of its military operation in the city of Rafah, Israel took control of the Palestinian side of the Philadelphi Corridor, which is the buffer zone between Gaza and Egypt. It gave Jerusalem control over the Gazan side of the Rafah crossing, previously controlled by Hamas since 2007. 

The crossing, located near the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, is in the middle of the Philadelphi Corridor, and acts as the primary route for the movement of goods and people between Egypt and Gaza. This makes it strategically significant for Egypt due to the heightened risk of militant infiltration and weapon smuggling, given the military escalation in Gaza since October 7th, 2023.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi opposed Israel’s  overtaking of the Rafah border crossing, citing increased security risks. To express his disapproval, al-Sisi closed the Egyptian side of the crossing to aid deliveries and the movement of people, narrating it as a move to avoid complicity in Israel’s attempt to forcefully push Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula.

What is changing al-Sisi’s heat level?

Answer: Al-Sisi capitalised on Israel’s violation of the Camp David Accord and gained leverage to initiate talks on control of the Rafah crossing.

Al-Sisi has leveraged Israel’s violation of the Camp David Accords to influence regional dynamics in Egypt’s favour. Under the accords, each side is allowed to deploy a small number of troops or border guards in the zone near the Philadelphi Corridor. Given these terms, the current extensive Israeli military presence near the border between Egypt and Gaza and the seizure of the Rafah crossing violates the Accords.

Being the mediator of the treaty, Washington does not want to appear tolerant of Israel’s violation, as supporting Israeli authority over the crossing would indicate that the US disregards its own agreements. In exchange for al-Sisi allowing aid to be diverted through the Kerem Shalom crossing in Israel, Washington initiated three-way talks with Israel and Egypt on the matter of the control of the Rafah crossing. 

Therefore, by leveraging Israel’s violation of the Accords and Washington’s desire to avoid appearing complicit in a humanitarian catastrophe, al-Sisi enhanced Egypt’s negotiating power and compelled the United States to engage in discussions aimed at removing Israeli authority over the Gazan side of the crossing. This move allowed al-Sisi to assert Egypt’s interests by shifting from its traditionally passive stance toward Israel to advance his strategic objectives.

However, the crossing remains under Israeli control, indicating that while al-Sisi has influenced the situation, he has not achieved a decisive outcome as of September 2024. 

What is driving al-Sisi?

Answer: Al-Sisi aims to quell public anger over Israel’s military actions in Rafah and prevent a refugee influx to safeguard his government’s survival and national security.

Since the escalation of military activities in Gaza, al-Sisi’s main aims have been twofold. Firstly, he wants to avoid an affluence of Palestinian refugees coming into Egypt. Secondly, he aims to manage the public anger about his government’s perceived inaction regarding Israel’s military operation in Gaza domestically.  By closing the aid crossing al-Sisi wanted to satisfy both goals. 

Al-Sisi sees the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict as a threat to Egypt’s national security, due to the country’s proximity to Gaza with a shared border. Despite international pressure to accept Palestinian refugees, al-Sisi is determined to prevent an influx, fearing it could compromise his government’s stability.

One concern is that in case of an inflow of people from Gaza to Egypt potential Hamas militants would use Egyptian territory as a base for conducting operations against Israel. Such an action can cause an immense strain on the diplomatic relations between Egypt and Israel that have been maintained since the Camp David Accords in 1978. Damaging this peace also jeopardises Egypt’s relations with the US, as American support is contingent on maintaining peaceful relations with Israel. Avoiding tensions with the US is crucial for al-Sisi, as continued security cooperation and US aid are vital for Egypt’s military and economic stability, and thereby for the survival of al-Sisi’s government.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Closing the Rafah Crossing worsened the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and is leading to increased security risks in Egypt and the wider region.

Since the closing of the Rafah crossing on the 7th of May, access to aid for Palestinians in the southern part of Gaza has significantly worsened. This deterioration is due not only to the closure of the crossing, but also to the intense hostilities and warlike conditions. Despite al-Sisi agreeing to divert aid through another corridor, it is not being delivered consistently and not to all areas. The ongoing armed-conflict in Rafah has created an active warzone, collapsing public order and safety along the aid routes. Consequently, aid is piling up at the crossing points, as it is too risky for humanitarian personnel to deliver it to the needed areas.

Al-Sisi’s decision to close the Rafah crossing also has impacts on the rise of insurgent groups’ activities in Egypt and the wider region. His decision can further be perceived as abandonment of the Palestinian cause and raise anger among the Egyptian public. Support for Palestine and antagonism toward Israel are deeply embedded in the Egyptian national consciousness. The Palestinian cause has historically been a mobilising factor among Egyptians as solidarity actions with the Palestinians often developed into anti-regime dissent. 

Opportunistic jihadi groups use such sentiments in their favour to boost recruitment and gain public support. The Palestinian struggle also provides a common ground for both Sunni and Shia jihadist militias to unite for one cause. This potential cooperation heightens security threats by amplifying these groups’ operational reach and strengthening their capacity to orchestrate violent attacks.