IE University x RAIA Research Program 2025

Mexico City Public Transport Reform

Since the end of Sheinbaum’s mayorship, international recognition of Mexico City’s public transportation evolution has been relatively positive, with Sheinbaum’s administration being specifically credited for the system’s sustainability and its impact on tackling social inequality. The city had set a 2024 target of reducing CO2-equivalent emissions by 10% compared to their 2016 levels, a goal which was surpassed by 102.7%, as the emissions were reduced by approximately 2,260,656 tonnes. Out of these calculations, Sheinbaum’s transport secretary estimated 152,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions were reduced directly by the transportation transformation. The UN Office for Project Services calculated that through Sheinbaum’s public transport revision, an additional 1.4 million people were able to use transportation efficiently and sustainably.

The successor to Sheinbaum, Clara Brugada (also notably part of Morena), has made it clear she intends to continue Sheinbaum’s public transportation policy. She pledged to continue Sheinbaum’s promise of 143 new electric buses into the Metrobús system by the end of 2025, and 358 by the end of 2030, which would make 65% of the total fleet electric. In regards to Cablebús, in response to the 142,000 daily passengers halving their travel time thanks to the system, 4 additional lines have been promised.

In terms of Sheinbaum’s expansion of cycling infrastructure, the results yielded have been generally positive, despite certain limitations in the measurable impact of cycling on emissions and broader urban challenges. However, in Mexico City’s progress report for its Environmental and Climate Change Program, it was estimated that the over 200 km of new bike lanes built contributes to an annual reduction of 8,224 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent helping meet climate mitigation goals. Sheinbaum has often framed cycling “as a unifying tool for social justice” by making mobility more equitable and accessible. This accomplishment  can be observed through the Healthy City Award received by her administration from Bloomberg Philanthropies in recognition of its commitment to active mobility. Particular focus was given to making neighborhoods more accessible by foot and bicycle, reinforcing inclusive urban design. Yet criticism arose from mobility consultants and urban cyclist groups during the years of implementation. The main issue being that executing the plan in Mexico City with the suboptimal environmental characteristics was not recommendable. Despite this skepticism, the cycling program advanced as a cornerstone of the city’s mobility policy.

The goal of the integrated mobility system was to make public transportation more accessible in order to reduce overall emissions. To achieve this, the system encouraged users to switch between different modes of transport, promoting a shift from high-emission options to more sustainable ones.  To better understand the shift in transportation habits, the change in the number of subway users serves as a useful indicator of how people are transitioning between different modes of transport. Between 2020 and  2024, the quantity of subway users in Mexico City increased by 236,682,411 individual users. As a whole, this initiative was considered to have avoided 152,529 tons of CO2 each year by the Head of Government of Mexico City & Ministry of Mobility. Additionally, in 2010, Sheinbaum and her colleague Juan Carlos Solís recorded that transportation accounted for 39% of Mexico City’s emissions; by 2022, this share had decreased by 5 percentage points to 34%.

While the sustainable shift to Mexico City’s public transportation has harnessed impressive results, the effects of air pollution in the city are still present. Between January and April of 2025, five environmental contingencies were activated in the city, with up to eleven additional ones expected by the end of the year. Environmental contingencies are activated when PM10 and PM2.5 levels around the city exceed a ‘healthy’ limit, and are followed by limitations on which vehicles can be driven within the city and recommendations for citizens to stay at home. The expected occurrence of contingencies this year would exceed the 12 induced in 2024, showing that the health concerns of air pollution are growing, and will need continued and active sustainable policy in the long-term to address.

National Water Plan 2024-2030

Due to its very recent announcements, there are only so many aspects of the National Water Plan that can be judged in terms of effectiveness, but there have been some developments since its implementation that show stronger and weaker signs of the plan in action. Some of the most widely accepted aspects of the plan are restoring the Lerma Santiago, Atoyac, and Tula rivers, all three of which are considered heavily polluted yet integral to the citizens and wildlife population dependent on them. Sheinbaum had explained her restoration plans to include three major steps, including improving wastewater efficiency plants, ensuring legal industry compliance, and implementing new drainage systems, all steps supported by heavy federal financial investment. Strong emphasis on collaboration with the private sector and sanctioning in case of non-compliance has been stressed by Sheinbaum and local observers as integral to tackling the heavy generation pollution by industry on the rivers. Furthermore, with 70% of Mexico’s water supply being used by the agricultural sector, and a similar rate of the supply being wasted by the sector, there is also heavy emphasis on improving efficiency of the irrigation system.

Water concessions, a large contributor to the levels of water scarcity in rural populations, although increasing by the tail end of 2024 by almost 40%, have now begun being returned in large quantities by private entities in line with the promise made at the original press conference, exemplified by Coca-Cola most recently returning 4 million cubic meters of water. The implementation of a single database by CONAGUA on water resources was successfully published in March of 2025, making it easier for future returns of unused or misused water concessions to the federal government. 

This advancement has been overshadowed by a 40% federal budget decrease for the 2025 fiscal year, despite the heavy technological renovation needed for the institution. Such a large funding cut follows a similar pattern to other cuts experienced by environmental institutions since Sheinbaum’s inauguration, including the Ministry of Environmental and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT). These cuts have worried some of the administration’s intent on fulfilling the environmental promises made, although the Coordinator of Public Spending and Accountability has defended these deficits, explaining them to be a consequence of heavy spending done in the years preceding Sheinbaum’s presidency to address climate concerns in need at the time. This explanation seems contradictory, however, as Sheinbaum’s presidency was projected to put a much larger emphasis on the environment than López Obrador’s. 

In regards to the funding that is being provided, there is an interesting disparity between regions that does not align with the disproportional needs in terms of water scarcity, as exemplified by the 2025 approved funding for the Drinking Water, Drainage, and Treatment program (PROAGUA). Regions with  the highest rates of households facing water insecurity, like Guerrero (30.6%), Baja California Sur (29%), and Aguascalientes (23.1%), receive significantly lower funds than regions that have the lowest water insecurity rates, including Yucatán (3.9%), Chihuahua (7.3%), and Guanajuato (8.1%), with disparities reaching tens of millions of Mexican pesos. Whether or not the promised infrastructure projects, which do include areas such as Guerrero and Baja California Sur, make up for the lack of proportional funding will have to be seen as they continue development, with several already under construction.

A recent development since the implementation of the National Water Plan has been the 2nd inauguration of Trump as the president of the United States. Although his volatile relationship with Sheinbaum has already been detailed, his involvement in the realization of the plan is also notable. Citing the historical 1944 Mexico-US water treaty, a deal that requires Mexico to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the USA has been signed by both parties. These concessions were previously decreased by the Biden administration due to the increased water scarcity in Mexico, marking another drawback to improving water accessibility in the state. This deal was  made to avoid a surge of Trump’s infamous tariffs. It is particularly problematic due to the water being transported to Mexico being sources from Northern Mexican states, previously highlighted due to particularly low water availability for Mexican citizens, presenting an instance where environmental concerns were overshadowed by economic interests.

The National Development Plan 2024-2030 has potential to substantially improve Mexico’s water crisis, considering the focus being given on several important factors confounding said crisis, including pollution and an unequal distribution of resources. The plan is ambitious, and will require a shift in federal funding patterns that have emerged since Sheinbaum’s inauguration with an increase in funding for the multiple institutional stakeholders needed, most notably CONAGUA. The construction and improvement of new water collection and wastewater instruments will be instrumental in the success of the policy. Based on Sheinbaum’s previous implementation of Mexico City public transportation reforms, there is sufficient reason to believe that the mechanisms promised will be delivered as such. 

Energy Policy 2024-2030

Centered on expanding renewable energy and increasing state oversight, the presidential energy plan aims to reduce costs and emissions while advancing a vision of energy sovereignty, though its centralized approach raises concerns about inclusivity and long-term sustainability. Analyzing the completion of these objectives requires the missing element of time for them to be fully implemented. However, the goals are clear, and through comparisons with other cases, estimations of Sheinbaum’s energy policy can be assessed. 

Sheinbaum’s “goal is to lower electricity costs” by implementing photovoltaic panels on 5,500 rooftops in Mexicalí. By the end of 2025, an expected 11,104 MWh of clean energy will be generated, and 4,864 tons of CO2 emissions will be reduced from this investment. Additionally, installing a 21 hectare 17.5 megawatt solar farm on the Central de Abasto rooftops – the biggest market in Latin América – will generate  26,000 kilowatt-hours per day. This is enough to supply electricity to approximately 10,000 homes. Sheinbaum argues this is all part of the cuarta transición.

Although insufficient time has passed to fully evaluate the long-term effects of the new geothermal law, its contributions to sustainable energy transition have already been widely recognized. Geothermal energy is an extremely energy-efficient substitute for fossil fuels in thermal applications. In certain situations, these applications are more efficient since they accomplish energy substitution without the need for conversion to electricity. In addition to being low-carbon, geothermal energy produces significantly  fewer greenhouse gases than conventional fuels. Specifically, direct uses eliminate emissions from heating with gas or fuel oil.

Along with being an environmentally sustainable policy, geothermal energy  is  an equitable option as well. Over the past decade, domestic electricity tariffs in Mexico’s central regions have increased by 35%, placing a growing financial burden on households. A study using a fixed-effects panel econometric model finds that greater investment in geothermal power plants is associated with reduced production costs and increased internal electricity sales. These outcomes suggest that geothermal energy can contribute to overall cost savings in the power sector. The study concludes that geothermal’s high capacity factor makes it a promising tool for attracting investment and lowering household electricity prices.

Lastly, Sheinbaum’s focus on reinforcing PEMEX and the CFE can be understood through the lens of energy sovereignty and the nationalization of energy sources, a framework that, as Torres and Niewöhner argue, produces complex and twofold outcomes. On the one hand, it allows for resource control and autonomy. This can reinforce economic self-reliance and bolster energy independence. With state enterprises at the helm, Mexico can set unified infrastructure goals via mechanisms like PRODESEN, enabling large-scale modernization and potential alignment with long-term social and economic objectives. On the other hand, this limits the renewable transition, excludes civil and private actors, and risks politicisation. Centralized state control marginalizes private renewables and civil-society initiatives, reinforcing fossil fuel dominance and reducing diversity in energy visions and technologies. Narrowly, energy sovereignty frames around hydrocarbons and may privilege political agendas that ignore climate objectives and may ignore decentralized, community-based energy solutions. 

As a whole, Sheinbaum’s energy policy navigates trade-offs between her pursuit of energy sovereignty and sustainability. Initiatives such as the rooftop solar panels in Mexicalí, the Central de Abasto solar farm, or the expansion of geothermal accessibility demonstrate her focus on practical, emissions-reducing interventions that also aim to lower household energy costs. While this aspect is positive, as a whole, the reform requires improvements regarding strengthening of PEMEX, the CFE, and fossil fuel investment.

IExRAIA Summer Research Program:

This article is an excerpt from a report on Claudia Sheinbaum produced as part of an RAIA research program on climate leaders. For a full picture of Ruto’s climate leadership, including the sources, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.

Authors: Josip Biondić & Manuela Altés Alcaraz

Editor: Francia Morales

Project Lead: Roxane de Bergevin & Stefani Obradovic