Bangladesh’s low-lying topography, high population density, and position within a delta system make it particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change, including rising sea levels,  extreme weather events, and air pollution, making it one of the most climate vulnerable countries. It has also been ranked seventh extreme disaster risk prone country in the world by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 2021 as per their Global Climate Risk Index report. This has led to Sheikh Hasina’s politics to be strongly driven by the severe impacts on the country’s socio-economic development and environmental stability, given its geographic pressures. 

Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Map, DECCMA Project, University of Southampton.

Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise poses a significant threat to Bangladesh, primarily due to its extensive low-lying coastal regions. Predictions indicate that a sea level rise of 45 cm could inundate approximately 10% of the country’s area, and a rise of 1 metre could affect over 21% of the coastal regions. This is particularly difficult, seeing that about a third of the population lives by the coast, whose livelihood depends on agriculture and fisheries in these areas.

Increased salinity intrusion from the sea adversely affects agricultural productivity and freshwater resources, further exacerbating food and water security issues. The potential displacement of up to 30 million people from coastal regions due to rising sea levels underscores the severe socio-economic impacts of this challenge.                                                                                                                            

Effective adaptation measures, such as constructing embankments, developing salinity-resistant crop varieties, and planning for managed retreat in the most vulnerable areas, are crucial to mitigate these impacts. However, the consequences of rising sea levels could nullify decades of development investments, drastically altering the landscape and socio-economic conditions of the affected areas. This challenge necessitates robust leadership and international support to implement sustainable adaptation strategies.               

A significant threat of climate change and rising sea levels is in the agricultural sector, especially coastal agriculture, which is prone to soil salinity and inundation. This poses a drastic risk to food security internally and the livelihoods of millions of people dependent on agriculture for both economic and nutritional reasons. A 4°C increase in temperature could result in a 28% reduction of rice and a 68% reduction of wheat output, critically impacting food production. Changes in rainfall patterns and increased flooding exacerbate the situation, with salinity intrusion increasing by 27% from 1973 to 2009. Flooding leads to crop destruction, especially in the coastal regions, causing displacement and economic insecurity.

Severe and Erratic Weather

Another challenge that Bangladesh faces is severe and erratic weather, which are affected by the changing climate. In Bangladesh, anticipation of the next major storm is something constant, however its impacts and their frequency are changing with changing climate. Furthermore, with a high population density, Bangladesh relies heavily on surface water for irrigation, fisheries, and other uses. Climate change affects the availability and quality of water resources, leading to critical implications for the country’s economy and public health. 

The country experiences a four-month monsoon season from June to September, regularly causing widespread flooding. However, the frequency and intensity of these floods have increased due to climate change. Cyclones, another severe weather phenomenon, frequently hit coastal regions, causing immediate destruction and long-term socio-economic challenges. The intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing due to higher sea surface temperatures, leading to more powerful and destructive storms.

Erratic weather patterns, including irregular rainfall and temperature fluctuations, adversely affect agricultural productivity and freshwater availability. Prolonged droughts, salinity intrusion, and unexpected floods create additional challenges for agriculture and water resources management, specifically regarding rice and wheat production, which are not only important for the population’s food security but also Bangladesh’s labour: Agriculture, including rice production, employs 70% of Bangladesh’s labour and makes up 40% of the country’s GDP, with rice alone contributing 20%.  

Specific regions, such as the northwestern districts, are particularly vulnerable to droughts as a result of climate change, further stressing agricultural productivity and water resources. These extreme weather events necessitate comprehensive disaster management and climate resilience strategies to protect vulnerable communities and infrastructure.

Synoptic climatology of weather parameters associated with tropical cyclone events in the coastal areas of Bay of Bengal 

The frequency and intensity of cyclones and associated storm surges are expected to increase with climate change, due to higher sea surface temperatures due to global warming. This will result in enhanced wind velocities and more extensive storm surges, causing greater damage to vulnerable communities and ecosystems. Increased sea levels will exacerbate the penetration of storm surges further inland, leading to more significant losses in infrastructure and human life. 

Moreover, erratic weather patterns, including irregular rainfall and temperature fluctuations, are already evident. These changes adversely affect agricultural productivity and the availability of freshwater. Unpredictable weather has resulted in prolonged droughts, salinity intrusion far from the coast, and unexpected floods, creating additional challenges for agriculture and water resources management in Bangladesh. 

Areas such as Noakhali and Chittagong are frequently hit by cyclones, bringing immediate destruction and long-term socio-economic challenges. Environmental scientists Edris Alam et al. concluded that ‘it is predicted that rises in the mean sea level (MSL) and increases in the tropical cyclone wind speed will increase the depth of inundation along the Bangladeshi coast by more than 3 m and increase exposed areas by 69% in size’.

Reports by accredited institutions, including the IPCC, indicate that while the total number of cyclones might not increase, the proportion of more intense cyclones is likely to rise. This means that the average and maximum rain rates associated with tropical cyclones are expected to increase due to global warming. Droughts are also becoming an increasing issue in Bangladesh due to climate change. Specific regions, such as the northwestern districts, are particularly vulnerable to droughts and are expected to face even harsher conditions, further stressing agricultural productivity and water resources.

Air Pollution

Finally, air pollution in Bangladesh is an acute and pervasive issue, significantly impacting public health and the environment. The country frequently ranks among the most polluted in the world, with Dhaka consistently listed as one of the top polluted cities globally. Major contributors to air pollution include emissions from vehicles, industrial activities, brick kilns, and open waste burning. The high levels of pollutants, such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter, far exceed safe limits and pose serious health risks.

The consequences are dire; air pollution is identified as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, causing thousands of premature deaths annually. Efforts to address this issue have included projects such as the Clean Air and Sustainable Environment (CASE) and Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), which focus on reducing urban air pollution by implementing stricter vehicle emissions standards, improving traffic management, and promoting cleaner technologies. Despite these efforts, the high density of motor vehicles, especially those using two-stroke engines, continues to exacerbate pollution levels, making the air quality in cities, including Dhaka, some of the worst in the world.

The regional implications highlight the need for regional cooperation and innovative approaches to mitigate the impacts of air pollution. For example, under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh and India have signed multiple agreements to enhance cooperation across various sectors, including environmental sustainability and climate change. Both nations have engaged in collaborative research initiatives to monitor and manage air pollution. Joint studies and data sharing help in understanding the transboundary nature of air pollution and devising effective mitigation strategies. This includes identifying pollution sources and implementing coordinated measures to improve air quality, which is part of the OneSouthAsia Project.

Sheikh Hasina’s Motives 

Sheikh Hasina’s concern about the environmental challenges in Bangladesh is rooted in the immediate and long-term impacts these issues have on the country’s socio-economic stability, public health, and overall development but also shaped by her personal experience.

Sheikh Hasina, as the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangladesh, is committed to the welfare and development of her country. Her family’s legacy, intertwined with the nation’s progress, drives her to tackle issues that threaten Bangladesh’s future. By addressing climate vulnerabilities, she honours this legacy and ensures the continuity of her father’s vision for a prosperous Bangladesh. Her dedication however, is also rooted in her personal motivation to keep up her and her family legacy’s reputation. 

Next, the economic ramifications of environmental challenges are profound. Bangladesh’s agriculture is severely impacted by rising sea levels and soil salinization. This shift from rice farming to shrimp farming due to saline water intrusion affects employment and food security. Addressing these issues is crucial for maintaining economic stability and growth, which are key priorities for Hasina’s government. 

Furthermore, the displacement of millions due to flooding and rising sea levels necessitates humanitarian intervention. Hasina’s administration has been active in providing relief and rehabilitation for displaced populations, highlighting her commitment to the welfare of her people. 

Moreover, Bangladesh, under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, has become a prominent example in global climate discussions. By advocating for greater international support (in the form of financial and technical assistance to implement climate resilient projects) for climate adaptation, Hasina demonstrates her concern for the environmental challenges facing her country. For example, balancing relations with major powers like India and China allows Bangladesh to secure the necessary investments for infrastructure projects that mitigate the impacts of climate change. This shows Hasina’s strategic diplomacy, in the hope to ensure that Bangladesh can leverage international support.

Hasina’s administration has also launched several ‘mega-projects’ aimed at enhancing Bangladesh’s resilience to climate change. Projects such as the Padma Bridge and other infrastructure developments not only help to develop the country’s economic growth but also improve the country’s ability to cope with environmental disasters. 

Such initiatives reflect her long-term vision for sustainable development and the importance she places on addressing environmental challenges. This, together with Sheikh Hasina’s pledge at the COP26 Climate Change Conference, where she called on wealthy nations to ‘fulfil their pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions and provide the promised $100 billion annually in financial aid’ in order to accomplish their global goals but also because according to Hasina’s speech at the meeting, Bangladesh only accounts for a small fraction of global warming through carbon emissions.

However, when considering the fact that Bangladesh faces significant climate vulnerabilities despite its minimal carbon footprint—contributing less than 0.47% of global emissions—it highlights the difficult position that Sheikh Hasina and her government face with regards to their mitigation strategies. The country is highly susceptible to different climate impacts which is why Hasina emphasises adaptive climate policies and frugal innovation due to limited resources. This involves leveraging international funds and fostering innovative, cost-effective solutions to enhance the country’s resilience, rather than aiming to reduce emissions, which are already comparatively low. 

This is why Hasina’s administration prioritises adaptive strategies over preventative measures in addressing climate change. This focus stems from limitations in technological capabilities and occasional insufficiencies in necessary funding, which is also partially reflected in their policies. It also emphasises community-based adaptation programs, which engage local populations in developing and implementing resilience strategies, which are more frugal than high technology intensive. For instance, the Community-Based Adaptation to Climate Change through Coastal Afforestation program is a notable example of how local communities are involved in enhancing coastal resilience through tree planting and other adaptive practices.

IExRAIA Summer Research Program:

This article is an excerpt from a report about Sheikh Hasina produced as part of an RAIA research program on climate leaders. For a full picture of Hasina’s climate leadership, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.

Authors: Mariana Gamez and Aimee Wolff

Editor: Ruby Hawari

Project Lead: Francia Morales

Disclaimer:

The RAIA Team would like to inform the reader that this report was researched and written between May and July 2024, preceding the zenith of Bangladesh’s student protests and ultimate exile of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This report is additionally not written as an assessment of Hasina’s democratic legitimacy, and makes an objective assessment of the climate change-related policies that she promoted during her time as prime minister of Bangladesh.

For this reason, therefore, the research heretofore does not include information or analysis regarding the student protests, the eventual transition of power to the current interim government, nor of any ongoing political events within the country. As a consequence, the evaluated impacts of the policies may not reflect their future, now possibly impacted by the current developments in Bangladesh.