SHEIKH HASINA

While the impact of the policies outlined above demonstrate significant improvements in environmental adaptation, Sheikh Hasina’s government lacks transparency and accountability in disclosing the progress on existing initiatives. According to Chowdhury et al. ‘little is known about the impacts of the existing policies and initiatives on curbing GHG emissions and promoting environmental sustainability, especially from the agriculture and energy sectors that contribute 44% and 39% to the country’s net emissions, respectively’. 

Therefore, due to the absence of reliable information, it is challenging to test the practical effectiveness of these policies in a more holistic manner. This section explores the impact of these policies with the most appropriate data available. 

Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), 2009

The construction of cyclone and flood shelters and the enhancement of early warning systems have significantly reduced the loss of life and property during natural disasters. These measures have increased the country’s resilience to climate-induced calamities. The implementation of early warning systems, the construction of cyclone shelters, and community-based disaster risk reduction programs have drastically reduced cyclone-related fatalities. Specifically, cyclone-related deaths have been reduced by 100-fold since the 1970s due to these enhanced measures​ including the BCCSAP. However, despite these improvements, tropical cyclones still cause approximately $1 billion dollars in damages annually​.

On the positive side, the BCCSAP has supported various agricultural adaptation measures to cope with climate variability. These include the development and dissemination of climate-resilient crop varieties, improved irrigation techniques, and farmer training programs. Such efforts have been crucial in maintaining agricultural productivity in the face of increasing salinity, erratic rainfall, and other climate impacts. However, by 2050, it is projected that one-third of the agricultural GDP could be lost due to climate variability and extreme events, underscoring the ongoing vulnerability of the sector​. 

Despite achievements of the BCCSAP, resource allocation has been uneven across different sectors. Infrastructure projects have received substantial investment, but other areas such as food security, social protection, health, mitigation, low carbon development, and comprehensive disaster management have seen comparatively less funding. This disparity has been noted by various sources, including the Dhaka Tribune, which underscores the need for a more balanced approach to ensure sustainable and long-term effectiveness of the interventions.

Overall, the BCCSAP has had mixed effects on Bangladesh. However, the uneven allocation of resources has raised concerns about the sustainability and long-term effectiveness of the policy’s interventions. Sectors like agriculture, livelihoods, and health have not received as much attention as infrastructure projects. This imbalance could undermine the holistic development required to tackle the multifaceted impacts of climate change. Yasmin’s (2018) study highlights the gaps between policy and practice, particularly in areas critical to long-term climate adaptation and resilience.

Throughout this process, Sheikh Hasina has been a pivotal figure in advocating for and implementing the BCCSAP. Her leadership has been instrumental in prioritising climate change on the national agenda, securing international support, and obtaining necessary funding. The successful implementation of various BCCSAP projects has bolstered her political standing both domestically and internationally. Hasina’s commitment to climate action is evident in her efforts to transform Bangladesh into a climate-resilient nation, aligning with her broader vision of sustainable development and poverty eradication.

The policy’s focus on adaptation and disaster risk reduction supports Hasina’s goals of protecting vulnerable populations, ensuring food security, and promoting economic stability. Additionally, initiatives like low carbon development and technology transfer are crucial for modernising the country’s infrastructure and energy systems, fostering economic growth while mitigating environmental impacts.

While the BCCSAP primarily focuses on adaptation and resilience, it also includes components aimed at mitigation through low carbon development initiatives. Bangladesh’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is minimal; thus, the country’s efforts under the BCCSAP are more about coping with the adverse effects of climate change rather than significantly reducing global warming. The policy’s initiatives, such as improving disaster preparedness, protecting livelihoods, and enhancing food security, indirectly contribute to broader climate goals by building a resilient society.

However, the global impact of these efforts is limited due to Bangladesh’s relatively small share of global emissions. The primary objective remains to strengthen national resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change, which aligns with international climate action frameworks but does not substantially alter global emission trajectories.

The BCCSAP has faced significant criticism for its top-down approach, lack of stakeholder consultation, vague program descriptions, and an overemphasis on infrastructure at the expense of direct adaptation measures. Key issues such as river pollution, urban flooding, food adulteration, arsenic contamination, sea level rise, bank erosion, drought, and safe water scarcity highlight the plan’s shortcomings. 

The plan’s effectiveness is further compromised by insufficient community involvement, inadequate emphasis on NGO and civil society cooperation, neglect of participatory planning, and lack of emphasis on good governance, transparency, and accountability. The BCCSAP’s failure to incorporate local opinions and experiences undermines its implementation, with historical lessons from projects like the Flood Action Program emphasising the importance of local participation for successful outcomes. Thus, while the BCCSAP sets a necessary framework for addressing climate change in Bangladesh, its implementation needs significant improvements in inclusivity and stakeholder engagement to achieve its goals effectively.

According to a study by Nasrin Akter and Zelina Sultana, the current climate change implementing agencies’ representativeness, authority, and responsibilities need re-evaluation. The study recommends the creation of a new, more responsive, and effective climate authority, supported by robust legislation, to enhance the implementation of climate policies and plans in Bangladesh and achieve the country’s climate goals.

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition & EECMP

CCAC

As part of the CCAC, Bangladesh was one of the first countries to explicitly acknowledge the implementation of national strategies to reduce SLCPs in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), exemplifying leadership in this context. Additionally, through the CCAC’s community-centred projects, Bangladesh has shown significant improvement in various sectors. Nevertheless, deeply rooted expertise and established knowledge in some industries have prompted individuals to return to past methods, limiting the progress of some projects. 

A majority of methane emissions come from the agricultural sector, primarily cattle and rice cultivation. As part of the CCAC, paddy rice cultivation (with 75% of agricultural land dedicated to this) was improved through the use of a technique known as alternate wetting and drying (AWD), a technique with the potential to reduce emissions by half and reduce water usage by one third.  The common practice of continuous flooding in rice paddies is costly and emits high levels of methane, and hence the CCAC supported the adoption of the AWD technique at a larger scale across Bangladesh. 

This resulted in 13,000 farmers being trained to cut methane emissions to approximately 19,500 tons of CO2 per year, 30% of irrigation water being saved, and reduced cultivation costs. The CCAC has also raised awareness of this technique through farmers training, field days, national workshops, and stakeholder meetings. 

Many partnering entities have shown their support to develop this technique further, with the CCDB aiming to reach 50,000 farmers over the next few years – resulting in the potential to reduce 75,000 tCO2-eq/yr of methane. While farmers faced some constraints such as monitoring and insufficient supply of electricity, the overall perception was positive, exemplifying the potential of this technique to mitigate GHG emissions at a broader scale. 

 Methane Webinar Rice, 2021 

Another project that has resulted in substantial improvements has been the Low-Emission Development for Bangladesh’s Dairy Sector. Since 2016, the FAO and NZAGRC have supported Bangladesh in identifying low-cost strategies to reduce enteric methane emissions from ruminant systems using the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model. Moreover, Bangladesh has improved its emissions inventory by better defining and mainstreaming emission intensity reduction targets and measures.

Through the CCAC, Sheikh Hasina has been able to increase Bangladesh’s visibility in the environmental and political sphere as well as allow the country to expand integration in global climate governance. 

However, a major challenge of the CCAC has been the effective enforcement of the projects. The CCAC is voluntary in nature, and while this makes it more dynamic and flexible, it has led to weaker commitments when challenges do emerge. 

The Green Brick Programme along (2017), for instance, led to the investment of USD $50 million and technical assistance to catalyse the renewal of  polluting  kilns with energy-efficient ones, a process that had already begun in 2012 with a directive ban on the operation of traditional fixed chimney kilns. While progress has been made in replacing the kilns (development of business plans, technical training, and improved understanding of green technology), the environment is not favourable. There are considerable barriers to implementation including low levels of awareness of modern technology, substantial knowledge barriers, high cost of financing, and lack of technical capacity; this diminishes the receptiveness of the Bangladeshi population to changes.

EECMP

In 2012, based on the recognition that efficient energy use was essential, Sheikh Hasina established a distinct authority challenged with the implementation of the Energy and Efficiency Conservation Master Plan and renewable energy: the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA). SREDA developed three distinct programs, namely the Energy Management Program, the EE Labelling Program, and the EE Buildings Program. These programs have achieved significant results. For example, the Labelling Program has established rules and procedures for ‘Prescribing minimum energy performance standard’ and labelling of appliances & equipment’ for visibility on energy efficiency performance.

Additionally, a target scenario was set up in 2016  where by 2021, primary energy intensity (toe/GDP) would be 15% less than that in 2013-2014. According to a SREDA report: ´The latest national energy intensity for the FY 2021-22, based on the new calculation was 3.24 ktoe / billion BDT, which is approximately 15.9% less than that of the shifted baseline year (FY 2014-15). Industries producing more with the same amount of energy consumption are deemed to be one of the major factors for achieving this EE&C improvement. 

Sheikh Hasina’s willingness to organise all these authorities and systematically establish distinct facilities for her aims have undoubtedly helped achieve this progress. . 

Moreover, the EECMP has the support of various donors, including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and JICA. This highlights the collaborative efforts needed to advance such comprehensive policies. Moreover, energy efficiency measures and renewable energy subjects have been introduced in the educational curriculum leading to a rise in public awareness. Despite this, the renewable energy sector continues to lag behind.  

National Adaptation Plan 2023-2050 & Delta Plan 2100

As aforementioned, the NAP and the Delta Plan are two policies that are highly complementary to one another. As they are quite recent, their impact is currently not fully evident, despite some initial progress. Nevertheless, the theoretical effectiveness may be analysed to determine if these policies are viable in the future. 

The NAP was submitted to the UNFCCC. The submission to an external and prominent entity like the UN creates a need for Sheikh Hasina to remain accountable for the successful implementation of the policy. If the plan does not materialise in the way it was envisioned, she risks losing her credibility and reputation as a climate leader – a role that the UN has continuously projected onto her. 

Moreover, the NAP is expected to be revisited every five years, along with the five-year plans that Bangladesh presents. Given the rapidly changing climate landscape and evolving socio-economic conditions of the country, regular evaluations are necessary to ensure the proper adaptation to new priorities and that measures used, such as technology, do not become ineffective.

Nevertheless, the effective implementation of this policy is contingent upon the investment of USD $230 billion over the next 20 years. This investment will require a concerted effort from international and domestic partners, as well as public and private entities. Private entities have been more challenging to attract due the scale of the projects and the scarcity of projects that meet the risk and return criteria. Addressing this challenge is key for this policy to be successful. 

The Delta Plan (2100) has a well-established framework that is likely to ensure its success. Through this policy, Sheikh Hasina has demonstrated her awareness of the need to develop strategic partnerships to enhance a policy’s impact, a notion that was not as apparent at the start of her political career. The Delta Plan was developed alongside a Dutch Committee with a vast amount of expertise in this field.

Collaboration with the Dutch allowed for a holistic view on how to best achieve their adaptive policies. In this regard, progress has been made with the support of the Netherlands. The Bangladesh Water Development Board has began the first phase of the dredging and excavation of canals and small rivers in 64 districts and has began the execution of the ‘Dredging and Re-Excavation of Bangali-Karatoa-Fuljor-Hurasagor River System & Bank Protection Project’.

Lastly, Sheikh Hasina is receiving funds from diverse stakeholders for the implementation of the Delta Plan and the NAP. In particular, the Delta Plan is being financed in part by the World Bank, in collaboration with the Global Water Security & Sanitation Partnership. 

The high regulation of these institutions reduces the likelihood that the Bangladeshi government will mismanage the funds as the World Bank has trusted Sheikh Hasina to appropriately use them to finance climate-related projects. Moreover, it is probable that the government undergoes extensive and stringent supervision during the implementation phase to certify that the investment produces a successful outcome.

IExRAIA Summer Research Program:

This article is an excerpt from a report about Sheikh Hasina produced as part of an RAIA research program on climate leaders. For a full picture of Hasina’s climate leadership, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.

Authors: Mariana Gamez and Aimee Wolff

Editor: Ruby Hawari

Project Lead: Francia Morales

Disclaimer:

The RAIA Team would like to inform the reader that this report was researched and written between May and July 2024, preceding the zenith of Bangladesh’s student protests and ultimate exile of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This report is additionally not written as an assessment of Hasina’s democratic legitimacy, and makes an objective assessment of the climate change-related policies that she promoted during her time as prime minister of Bangladesh.

For this reason, therefore, the research heretofore does not include information or analysis regarding the student protests, the eventual transition of power to the current interim government, nor of any ongoing political events within the country. As a consequence, the evaluated impacts of the policies may not reflect their future, now possibly impacted by the current developments in Bangladesh.