• Despite leading a minority coalition, PM Pedro Sánchez successfully implemented a major migration reform in 2024, aligned with his long-term demographic and economic goals. 
• Despite Spain’s economic recovery, his political gains are constrained by rising irregular arrivals of mainly West African migrants to the Canary Islands and growing public concern over migration.
• Sánchez’s reform shows how migration can be reframed as a pragmatic tool to address economic and demographic challenges, moving beyond traditional security-focused approaches.

Why is Sánchez’s  heat level MILD?

Answer: Sánchez has successfully implemented his migration reform, which aligns with his long-term governance goals, but faces domestic backlash.

Despite leading a minority coalition and facing pressure from opposition parties, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez successfully implemented Spain’s comprehensive migration reform in May 2024. The reform facilitates legal migration by opening new routes for undocumented migrants, expanding family reunification rights, and creating circular migration agreements with other countries.

The legislation introduced pathways for up to 300,000 undocumented migrants annually and a “facilitated rooting” mechanism, which grants an exceptional period to recover lost resident permits. Latin American migrants are the largest group, comprising about 43% of foreign-born residents. Moroccans are the single most common nationality, making up approximately 13% of immigrants, while Colombians account for 9% and Romanians 7%. North Africans (including Moroccans) represent around 18% of the foreign-born population, followed by Asians at 7%.

In the area of family reunification, the law broadened the concept of “family” to include unmarried couples and descendants up to the age of 26, as well as facilitating the reunification process for people over the age of 65. 

Moreover, Sánchez also signed new agreements with Senegal, Gambia, and Mauritania to manage migration flows through a circular migration framework. The circular migration policy seeks to address Spain’s labor shortages while providing legal pathways for migrants. Unlike permanent migration, circular migration involves a cyclical pattern where individuals return to their country of origin after completing a fixed-term contract abroad. In doing so, labor needs in the host country are being addressed, and economic development is supported in the source country. Overall, this system will provide temporary work permits for migrants, allowing them to work in Spain for a fixed period before returning home. 

These reforms support Sánchez’s broader governance priorities: addressing Spain’s aging population, rural depopulation, and persistent labor shortages in certain sectors such as hospitality, medical care, and tech. Spain has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe (just 1.12 children per woman in 2023) and according to Sánchez, it needs more migrant workers to keep the economy growing. Therefore, through these agreements, workers benefit from legal employment and the opportunity to return to their countries with savings and skills. 

For Spain, the gains go beyond simply filling demographic gaps: many shortages stem from cultural and economic factors. Spain has one of the highest rates of overqualified staff and youth unemployment in the EU, with younger generations often unwilling to take on low-paid, temporary jobs. At the same time, poor working conditions, particularly in the tourism sector (15% of Spain’s GDP), combined with rising housing costs and inflation, make these jobs unattractive to locals. Migrant workers, therefore, play a crucial role in sustaining these industries, ensuring that critical positions remain filled and that the economy continues to grow.

However, Sánchez’s ability to convert this policy into domestic political capital remains limited. While the EU has welcomed Spain’s leadership on migration, public opinion at home is fractured. A recent poll showed that 57% of Spaniards believe there are too many immigrants, with migration now ranking among the country’s top five public concerns. Also, opposition parties, including the conservative Partido Popular (PP) and the far-right Vox, have accused Sánchez of creating a “pull effect” by facilitating legal entry routes, particularly amid rising irregular arrivals in the Canary Islands. Therefore, while these reforms align with Sánchez’s long-term governance goals, domestic support is not homogeneous, and opposition parties are undermining his political gains.

In conclusion, Sánchez was able to implement his migration policy despite leading a minority coalition. However, low public support for the reform has weakened his domestic backing, keeping his heat level MILD.

What is changing Sánchez’s heat level?

Answer: Spain’s strong economic recovery, Sánchez’s positioning as a pragmatic EU leader, and growing domestic backlash are changing his heat level.

Sánchez’s heat level is being shaped by both positive and negative pressures. On the one hand, Spain’s rapid economic recovery has boosted his position. According to the OECD, Spain’s economy was projected to grow 1.8% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. Moreover, it has recently come out of a long recession, with migrant labor playing a key role in the economic recovery. The country was the fastest-growing economy in the EU in 2024, with analysts linking this performance in part to the government’s open migration stance and the arrival of skilled labor from Latin America. 

In addition to supporting the economy, Sánchez’s migration reforms have positioned Spain as a leader within the EU. By framing migration as an economic necessity, he presents a pragmatic alternative to stricter immigration policies seen in countries like Italy and Hungary. This stance enhances his influence at the European level by offering an alternative model based on legal pathways and labor market integration. 

Spain’s approach also aligns with the goals of the Migration and Asylum Pact, an EU-wide agreement designed to create a more coordinated and fair system for managing migration and asylum across member states. Although the pact is set to be implemented in 2026, political disagreements remain. Spain’s strong support and Sánchez’s push for its swift implementation strengthen his profile at the European level as a leading advocate for pragmatic and cooperative migration policies in Europe.

However, these developments also triggered significant domestic backlash. The right-wing Vox party has capitalized on growing public anxiety about immigration. Tensions have especially risen across the South of Spain, where rural communities coexist with a relatively high community of migrants supporting low-qualified sectors such as fruit and vegetables. 

These dynamics lead up to  violent “hunts” against North African residents in Torre Pacheco by far-right groups. These clashes culminated in the injury of 5 people, and at least 10 people were arrested. This event highlights the societal backlash that Sànchez’s migration policy continues to spark, and at the same time, the far-right Vox party increased its support from roughly 11% after the 2023 election to 15.4% in recent polls. 

In the meantime, the conservative PP accuses Sanchez of encouraging irregular migration. This criticism is fueled by ongoing increases in sea arrivals, particularly to the Canary Islands, where arrivals surged by 126% in early 2024.  At the same time, regional authorities warn of administrative bottlenecks, housing shortages, and underfunded reception systems, adding to a perception of state overload and policy fatigue. 

These trends undermine the government’s narrative of “legal, safe, and orderly” migration, but also highlight a problematic dynamic: Morocco exercises significant leverage over Spain, especially by routinely intercepting Sub-Saharan migrants at the Ceuta and Melilla borders, where political tensions and human rights concerns persist. Despite thousands dying attempting the dangerous crossings and protests over inhumane conditions, Spain continues to fund border patrol as part of a tacit arrangement with Rabat, raising ethical questions about dependency and undermining Sànchez’s progressive credentials. Moreover, this dynamic gives opposition parties ground to attack Sánchez’s approach and question its effectiveness.

What is driving Sánchez?

Answer: Sánchez is driven by Spain’s demographic and labor market needs, seeing migration as essential for sustainable welfare and filling workforce gaps.

Sánchez’s migration agenda is driven by a combination of structural necessity, economic calculation, and geopolitical strategy. At its core is Spain’s demographic reality: the country has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe, and nearly half of its municipalities face risks of depopulation. Sánchez has framed migration as not only a humanitarian imperative but also as “an essential step to guarantee the prosperity and sustainability of our welfare state.” Spain’s central bank estimates the country will need 25 million immigrants over the next 30 years to support its labor market and pension system. 

This demographic challenge intersects with a broader economic strategy. Migrants, especially from Latin America and West Africa, are filling key gaps in sectors such as healthcare, hospitality, and technology. The government has actively sought to align its labor market needs with new migration channels, including legalization measures and job-matching initiatives as part of the circular migration agreements. These measures not only serve domestic goals but also reinforce Spain’s international position on migration in the EU. 

Therefore, Sánchez’s migration policy also functions as a tool of foreign diplomacy and soft power. Through bilateral agreements with countries such as Senegal, Mauritania, and Gambia, Spain aims to combat irregular flows while fostering development and cooperation. Yet, these agreements carry contradictions: while they reinforce Spain’s international image as a promoter of orderly migration, they also outsource border control to countries with weaker human rights safeguards, often resulting in inhumane treatment of migrants and limited accountability. However, at the European level, Sánchez distances himself from the more securitized approaches of leaders like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, advocating instead for a model focused on economic rationale and international solidarity.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Sánchez’s policy reframes migration from a security concern to a pragmatic tool for economic and demographic stability, offering a model for ageing countries.

Sánchez’s approach to migration shows how migration can be used as a tool to address demographic and economic challenges. Spain demonstrates that migration policy can be seen not only as a humanitarian duty but also as a strategic asset. By framing migration as essential to economic growth and welfare sustainability in a rapidly aging country, Sánchez has articulated a vision rarely seen in Europe today. 

Spain’s migration model, therefore, offers a policy blueprint that other countries could adapt. This is particularly relevant for countries with rapidly aging populations, labor shortages, and increasing pressure on pension and welfare systems, like many in Europe. Spain demonstrates that migration can be successfully integrated into a broader vision for long-term social and economic sustainability, especially in regions struggling with depopulation.