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• In August 2024, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan officially halted the process of writing a new constitution, solidifying her party’s dominant position ahead of the October 2025 general elections
• Chadema, the largest opposition party and a major advocate for constitutional reform, led protests against the president’s decision and questioned her commitment to reconciliation and reform – the agenda on which she built her presidency 
• The president’s party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), secured 99.01% of the votes in November 2024’s local elections ensuring that they head into October’s election in a dominant position despite intense criticism from the opposition and the contentious climate in Zanzibar

Why is Samia Suluhu Hassan HOT?

Answer: President SSH has passed her first electoral test as leader of Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), reinforcing her party’s strength ahead of the 2025 elections, where she will run under a constitution that favors CCM.

When Tanzania’s current President Samia Suluhu Hassan took office in 2021, she spoke of her reformist agenda: the 4Rs – reconciliation, resilience, reform and rebuild. This involved opening dialogue with the opposition and placing the possibility of drafting a new constitution on the table – something Chadema, the main opposition party, had been pushing for for decades.

The process appeared to be moving along, particularly when in March 2023 the President reaffirmed her commitment to delivering a new constitution followed by an allocation of government funds towards the project. However this came to a halt in August 2024 when CCM – the ruling party – stated that the country would need at least 3 years of civic education before coming up with a new constitution. 

Despite having served as the Vice Chairperson on the constituent assembly that drafted a new constitution in 2014, the President asserted that improving Tanzania’s economy ought to be the priority in order to ensure political stability. This pivot, prioritizing economic stability over the prior commitment to constitutional reform, was met with backlash and a feeling of betrayal amongst members of the opposition. Consequently, this threatened public perceptions of the president and her party just a few months before local elections in November 2024.

In spite of the tension in the political arena — opposition protests and criticism from human rights groups — the November local election results demonstrated that her and CCM’s popularity amongst the population remains, with 99.01% of the votes in favour of the party that has been in power since 1961. Despite being contested by the ACK Wazalendo party, the second-largest opposition party, these results were upheld.

Following this, on the 18th January 2025, CCM named her as the flag bearer, formally endorsing her to run for a second term as Tanzania’s first female President and its second Zanzibar-born President in the October 2025 polls. 

This came 6 months earlier than the party’s custom of naming its presidential candidate in June of an election year, to allow the party to fully focus on the presidential campaign. This choice was made strategically, given that SSH has spent her presidential term in the shadow of the late Magufuli from whom she inherited the office.and, on the other, she does not have a natural constituency on the mainland (Tanganyika).  

Having successfully overcome her first popular test as the face of CCM in the November 2024 local polls – despite dissatisfaction regarding the status of civic freedoms and a new constitution from some members of the public – President Samia Suluhu Hassan can now focus more confidently on the general elections in October 2025.

What is changing Samia Suluhu Hassan’s heat level?

Answer: Chadema’s discontent over delaying the new constitution–as the largest opposition party–sparked unrest, resulting in disappearances and deaths, tainting the president’s image.

The conversation around drafting a new constitution has been in and out of the country’s political discourse for 30 years. Particularly given the late President Magufuli’s use of his unchecked constitutional powers to restrict freedom of speech and ban political rallies. Samia Suluhu Hassan’s decision to postpone the process of writing a new constitution for at least 3 years was met with backlash from members of Chadema, the second-largest political party. 

The backlash is rooted in their conviction that the current constitution confers an excessive amount of power on the Office of the President. As the unchanged constitution stands, it is prohibited  for presidential election results to be contested in court and CCM is granted de facto power over Zanzibar, the semi-autonomous island that, together with mainland Tanganyika, forms the United Republic of Tanzania.

With events such as members of Chadema being detained, going missing, and turning up severely injured or dead, concerns about the sustainability of her reforms (the 4Rs) have been brought up by members of various opposition parties, threatening her popularity in the lead-up to local elections in November 2024 and general elections 11 months later, in October 2025.

In spite of the backlash, CCM’s decisive wins in November’s local elections followed by President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s nomination as flag bearer indicate continued support for the President within her party and that the status quo of CCM´s dominance throughout the de-facto one-party state remains.

What is driving Samia Suluhu Hassan?

Answer: One important concern on President Samia Suluhu Hassan‘s agenda is the growth and stability of Tanzania’s economy.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan has spoken extensively about prioritising Tanzania’s economy. This appears to be bearing fruit as the business community, investors, and even the President of the Republic of Guinea Bissau, Hon. Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló, have spoken of having faith in her leadership in the economic field. Evidence of this is also shown by the fact that Zanzibar’s economy grew by 7% in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly driven by tourism (27% of the GDP and 80% of foreign exchange), livestock, and construction activities. The economy of the mainland also grew by 5.6% in the same period. 

As far as distribution of economic benefits is concerned, however, Zanzibar receives 4.5% of the total revenue generated by the union. This figure was determined in practice, not through a constitutional provision. This forms part of the most salient point of contention with regards to the writing of a new constitution — the position of Zanzibar, relative to the mainland, within the United Republic of Tanzania (aka the Union).

Over the years, there have been calls for amendments to the power dynamics between the mainland and Zanzibar, and even a push for Zanzibar’s independence under a new constitution. As such, it is in the economic interest of the president to maintain the status quo, where the whole Union gains from Zanzibar’s growing economy under the current constitution.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: The actions of the president after the elections will be decisive for the relationship between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania going forward.

As it stands, the relationship between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania is such that the mainland gains a disproportionate amount of wealth from Zanzibar’s output despite long-running discontent from Zanzibari locals. Case in point: in 2024, the current administration invited local and international companies to apply to invest in oil and natural gas exploration in Zanzibar, a licence previously held by the UAE’s Rak’s Gas for 6 years. The previous agreement and current negotiations were both met with backlash from the local population, citing extreme poverty in Zanzibar despite extensive economic contributions, comparing it to a colonial relationship.

If the constitution were amended, it is likely that Zanzibaris would push for an amendment to the unilateral exercise of power over their economy by the mainland, or, in an extreme case, independence. 

It is all but certain that Tanzania will head into the October 2025 general elections with an unchanged constitution; one that vests the President with the powers to unilaterally restrict the freedom of the opposition, civil society, organisations or individuals as well as not allowing for election results to be challenged in court. Given this and the results of November 2024’s local elections, it is all but certain that Samia Suluhu Hassan will be elected for a second term in October 2025. Whether or not she keeps her promise to begin widespread civic education and review the constitution within the coming years remains to be seen.

Article by: Atieno Sihanya