• Although reappointed Prime Minister, Montenegro leads a fragile minority government, constrained by corruption allegations and a deeply fragmented parliament.
• With no majority and rising influence from the far-right Chega, Montenegro must balance economic reform and political stability without alienating the Socialist Party or cooperating with extremist forces.
• Portugal now faces mounting political volatility, eroded public trust, and the growing influence of anti-establishment movements.

Why is Montenegro’s temperature MILD?

Answer: Despite being reappointed as Prime Minister, Montenegro has to deal with political constraints that limit its ability to implement autonomous policy decisions.

On May 18th, Luís Montenegro was reappointed as Prime Minister by Portugal’s President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, following the legislative elections. Montenegro leads the Democratic Alliance (AD), a centre-right conservative coalition composed of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the Popular Party (CDS-PP), and the Popular Monarchic Party (PPM).

Montenegro first became Prime Minister in April 2024 after the AD won 80 seats in the previous legislative elections. However, his tenure was overshadowed by allegations related to a data protection consultancy he founded before entering politics. 

To avoid conflicts of interest, he transferred ownership of the company, known as Spinumviva, to his wife and sons. The so-called “Spinumviva scandal” raised corruption accusations, as several of the consultancy’s clients had contracts with the government. The case remains under investigation and is currently being examined by the Portuguese justice system. 

After submitting himself to a parliamentary vote of confidence and losing, the parliament was dissolved. The president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, called for new elections due to the impossibility of finding an absolute majority to appoint a new prime minister.

In this scenario, new elections were called, the third one in three years. While the AD coalition secured 31.21% of the vote and increased its number of seats by 11 to a total of 91, it still fell short of the 116 seats needed for a majority. Meanwhile, the far-right party Chega became the second-largest faction in parliament with 60 seats, surpassing the Socialist Party (PS), which now holds 58 seats in the legislative chamber. 

While Luís Montenegro technically emerged as the winner of the elections and was reappointed Prime Minister, his grip on power remains tenuous. His coalition lacks a parliamentary majority, and the rise of the far-right Chega, combined with the weakened but still influential Socialist Party, has left him with limited room to manoeuvre. 

What is changing Montenegro’s heat level?

Answer: Although he has won elections, he will have to face growing pressure to deliver political stability while still being constrained by having a minority government and his past corruption accusations.

Portugal has faced three elections in three years. The first one, in 2022, re-elected the Prime Minister from the Socialist Party, António Costa, who resigned after a corruption investigation in November 2023. Following him, Luís Montenegro from the Democratic Alliance was elected Prime Minister, and then he also saw his prime ministership plagued by his own corruption scandal. 

Montenegro is now beginning its second term leading a minority government, this time under significantly more pressure, as the far-right Chega party secured over 20% of the vote. With no intention of forming any governing alliance with Chega, Montenegro will be increasingly dependent on cooperation with the Socialist Party to advance its legislative agenda and contain the far right’s influence. 

During his previous term, Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos had instructed his party to abstain from important votes, which enabled Montenegro to form a government and pass the country’s budget. However, relations between the centre-right and centre-left have soured since then, following Santos’ call for the vote of confidence against Montenegro. This makes it harder for both sides to trust each other in this critical period.

Although Chega has stated it will not obstruct the government, Montenegro faces the challenge of navigating a deeply divided parliament while attempting to push through its party’s agenda ahead of the presidential elections in January 2026.

What is driving Montenegro?

Answer: Montenegro is driven by its commitment to advance economic and fiscal reforms and to address public concerns over migration.

Montenegro has two key priorities in the coming months: ensuring economic stability and positioning its party for victory in the January 2026 presidential elections. Economic reforms are at the top of his agenda. On June 14th, he announced a four-year government plan built around ten core objectives aimed at transforming Portugal’s economy. Most notably, addressing the country’s severe housing crisis. According to the OECD, Portugal has experienced the sharpest decline in housing accessibility among 30 countries over the past decade. 

Other pressing concerns for Portuguese voters include low wages and rising immigration. In his inaugural speech, Montenegro pledged tax cuts and salary improvements to address economic grievances. He added that he will continue the policy set last year, which tackled decreasing taxes for middle classes, companies and the youth, also controlling the housing crisis in the country. Montenegro kept most of his previous ministers in his government, signalling a continuation of his previous term as prime minister.

He also signalled a tougher stance on migration, reaffirming the principle of “open doors, but not wide open doors,” which shaped his previous mandate. His government has already proposed revisions to the nationality law and introduced stricter residency rules, emphasising that immigrants must adhere to legal entry and stay requirements.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Portugal, once a symbol of political stability, now faces rising volatility, fueled by corruption scandals, snap elections, and the rapid ascent of the far-right Chega party.

Until 2019, Portugal was frequently cited as an exception within the European political landscape due to the absence of a representative far-right populist party. This pattern has shifted significantly in recent years. Chega’s electoral trajectory has been marked by rapid and sustained growth, increasing its parliamentary representation from 12 seats to 50, and subsequently to 60 seats following the 2025 elections. For Montenegro, this evolving parliamentary configuration presents a governance dilemma in which it has to navigate a legislative process with two oppositions, while avoiding formal cooperation with Chega.

Three snap elections, each preceded by corruption scandals, have propelled Portugal’s politics into a state of political instability. Again, this exposed a shift in the Portuguese political environment. Fifty years after the Carnation Revolution, which saw the end of the Portuguese dictatorship, the Portuguese government is more volatile than ever. The country and its politicians, who once prided themselves on being the most “government-stable southern European country.”

With notably ex-Prime Minister Costa saying in 2019, “What we don’t want is a repeat of what is happening in Spain. We’ve had four years of stability, and Spain has had four elections in four years.” However, these last three years have weakened the government’s effectiveness while also eroding public trust in institutions and fueling the rise of anti-establishment movements such as the far-right political parties.