Name? Ilham Aliyev
Westphalian identity? Azerbaijani
Age? 60
Why is he in the news? Yesterday, the Russian Defence Ministry accused soldiers from Azerbaijan of violating a peace deal with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Both sides fought a two-month war over the territory in late 2020. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev refuted Moscow’s version of events, describing Russia’s statement as “one-sided.”
Why do we care? Because Russian President Putin negotiated a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan to end the two month war and both parties rely on Russia’s strength and peacekeepers to maintain peace. With Russia preoccupied in Ukraine, Aliyev found his moment to make further moves on Nagorno-Karabakh after his army (aka drones bought from Turkey) won back the majority of the territory Azerbaijan had lost in the 1991 war.
Why should you care? Because the Russian invasion of Ukraine directly impacts (unfreezes) a lot of conflicts that Russia has been involved in in the past few years. Now that Aliyev is seeing a window of opportunity over decreased Russian presence you should wonder 8/10 about who is next, Assad in Syria, Goïta in Mali or al-Burhan in Sudan?
Who else cares? Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development Rostam Ghasemi. He met Aliyev on March 11 to sign a memorandum of understanding for new trade links connecting Azerbaijan and its disconnected region Nakhchivan through Iran (see below). This is vital for Aliyev as the Nakhchivan region is behind Armenian territory out of reach for Azerbaijan. For Iran, as an international pariah, Aliyev is a welcome ally.
Any further comments? Aliyev did not achieve all of his goals during the 2020 war. He does not have full control of Nagorno-Karabakh nor does he have a corridor through Armenia to the Nakhchivan region. He knows that any Azerbaijani action, spare the deliberate assassination of Russian peacekeepers, will trigger a softer Russian reaction than before February 24; it appears he is testing the waters for further action.
