• Somali President Mohamud’s initial success in the war against Al-Shabaab has faltered, with the group regaining key territories and launching new attacks.
• Mohamud’s administration is losing support from key actors such as military factions and clan leaders.
• Mohamud will continue to receive international aid and military support, particularly from Western countries and those in the region that fear a resurgence of jihadism.

Why is Mohamud’s heat level COLD? 

Answer: Mohamud’s temperature is getting cold as tensions rise with former allies, and Al-Shabaab has regained previously liberated territories. 

On August 23, 2022, the Somali President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, declared “all-out war” against Harakat Shabaab al-Mujahidin (hereinafter, Al-Shabaab). Al-Shabaab is a jihadist organization which poses severe security threats across central and southern Somalia, and even beyond, into Kenya and Ethiopia. 

Mohamud’s administration aims at eradicating this group that had grown significantly stronger and more active over the years. His aggressive stance against Al-Shabaab marks a departure from his earlier term, where diplomatic efforts and amnesty offers were employed with limited military confrontation. 

To defeat Al-Shabaab, Mohamud’s administration forged an alliance between the Somali National Army (SNA) and Ma’awisley militias. This marked phase one of the plan which focused on regaining control over the central states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug. Despite first success, phase two, launched in August 2023 and which aimed at uprooting Al-Shabaab from the southern states of South-West and Jubaland, faced significant setbacks. 

In response, the Somali government reverted to its previous strategy of strengthening alliances with local militias to defend liberated cities in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. However, by March 2024, Al-Shabaab reclaimed several towns in Galmundung, and despite launching new offensives in May, the military and militias struggled to secure new victories.

The repeated losses of territory to Al-Shabaab, growing insecurity and the prolonged conflict are undermining Mohamud’s administration. The SNA began protesting due to unpaid salaries and the need to supply their own arms. Also support from clan leaders is diminishing as inter-clan fighting has intensified in the liberated areas over the past year. 

In addition to this, political pressure is rising as some members of Parliament asked for Mohamud’s resignation, especially due to the recently approved constitutional amendments regarding the Somali electoral system which will transition from a traditional clan-based system to a one-person, one-vote system.

Who is changing Mohamud’s temperature? 

Answer: Despite international support, Al-Shabaab continues to expand, remaining a significant threat in Somalia and Mohamud’s administration is losing support from key allies and neighbouring countries.

Despite government efforts, Al-Shabaab remains a significant threat. Indeed, they continue to launch new offensives and keep control over key states, namely Jubaland and parts of South-West. This loss of territory is contributing to Mohamud temperature decreasing. Indeed, Jubaland is a very strategic region due to its fertile land, which is valuable for agriculture and livestock grazing, as well as its strategic location near the Indian Ocean, offering access to fisheries and trade routes. The loss of this region is especially significant given Somalia’s ongoing food crisis and recurring droughts, as it plays a crucial role in addressing food insecurity.

Additionally, Jubaland’s proximity to the Kenyan border poses a significant challenge for Mohamud’s administration, as it facilitates cross-border operations and smuggling, making it harder for Somali forces to defeat Al-Shabaab. The loss of parts of the South-West state is also critical due to its proximity to Mogadishu and its border with Ethiopia, further complicating efforts to secure the region.

Moreover, Al-Shabaab’s ability to reclaim cities in Hirshabelle State poses a serious challenge for Mohamud, as it grants the group control over key transportation routes. Al-Shabaab’s control over the Jubba and Shebelle rivers, the main water resources of Somalia, further undermining Mohamud’s efforts to manage and use the country’s resources.

Somalia: States and Regions (ISPI)

In addition to the loss of key territories, Mohamud’s temperature is changing due to a shift in his alliances. The African Union’s peacekeeping mission, known as ATMIS, plays an important role in supporting Mohamud’s policies by providing military assistance and contributing to stability efforts. However, it is scheduled to withdraw by December 2024 and this could create a power vacuum that Al-Shabaab may exploit to regain control over key territories. Also the UN has been involved in Somalia through UNSOM, established in 2013, but this year the Somali government requested that UNSOM transition into a UN country team.

Additionally, the amendments to the Somali Constitution have been welcomed by the international community. However, they have faced significant criticism from clan leaders, who view them as centralizing power in the hands of the president. This shift could weaken Mohamud’s support from these clan leaders, who have been crucial allies in the fight against Al-Shabaab. 

Moreover, the lack of consistent support from neighboring countries, particularly Ethiopia and Kenya, due to regional tensions, further weakens Mohamud’s position. In fact, Ethiopia’s relations with Somalia have worsened after its agreement with Somaliland, granting Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s coastline in exchange for recognizing its autonomy, which Somalia considers as part of its territory.

In response, Kenya has proposed a treaty to reduce tensions, aiming to address territorial disputes and enhance regional security through diplomatic channels. Yet, Kenya has  also confirmed that its last troops stationed in Somalia as part of ATMIS mission will leave by the end of 2024, which could create further security gaps.

What is driving Mohamud? 

Answer: Mohamud seeks to strengthen the central government by countering regional fragmentation, dismantling Al-Shabaab, and addressing the humanitarian crisis.

Mohamud’s primary objectives are to regain Somalia’s sovereignty and secure international aid, both of which are intertwined with dismantling Al-Shabaab. Additionally, Mohamud aims at addressing the political division. Indeed, Somalia is highly fragmented: regional states such as Somaliland and Puntland, and the SSC-Khaatumo administration have either declared independence or are seeking increased autonomy.

Western support has been essential for Somalia, providing not only military backing in the fight against Al-Shabaab but also financial aid, especially as the country has been severely affected by extreme drought, which has caused widespread hunger, and forced large-scale displacement. For instance, the U.S. is one of the largest contributors of humanitarian assistance to Somalia. Securing this support was vital for the survival of Mohamud’s administration, which drove the push for Constitutional amendments, particularly the introduction of universal suffrage. 

These amendments have strengthened Mohamud’s power by granting the president the authority to remove the prime minister from office. The amended Constitution also sets a five-year term for government constitutional bodies and designates regional state presidents as leaders, reinforcing in this way the central authority of the Somali president. Additionally, it establishes a framework for a multi-party system, allowing for the presence of three political parties. 

What does this mean for you? 

Answer: Al-Shabaab poses a significant threat not only to Somalia but to regional stability, with its expansion raising concerns of a resurgence in jihadist violence.

Al-Shabaab continues to pose a significant security threat not only to Somalia but to the entire Horn of Africa. Al-Shabaab’s jihadist ideology raises concerns of a broader jihadist violence resurgence. Consequently, Mohamud’s administration remains a critical partner for international allies, particularly the U.S. and Western countries, who fear the expansion of jihadism in the region. 

Western states will likely continue providing financial and military support to Somalia in order to suppress Al-Shabaab’s influence, prevent the group from further exploiting regional instability, and reduce the risks of extremist recruitment and attacks beyond Somali borders.

However, achieving stability in Somalia remains challenging due to increasing political fragmentation, growing clan dissatisfaction, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Mohamud’s leadership could be at a turning point, as defeating Al-Shabaab is key to maintaining both domestic support and international backing and failure to do so could lead to a loss in credibility and jeopardize his ability to remain in power.