• Increasing regional tensions have reignited plans for a referendum on Iceland’s potential EU membership, set to be held by the end of 2027.
• As relations with the United States of America worsen, Frostadóttir is pursuing new partnerships to reinforce Iceland’s security.
• Frostadóttir’s tactics provide a model for small-state security strategy.

Why is Frostadóttir’s heat level BLAZING?

Answer: Despite the country having no standing military, Frostadóttir is reshaping Iceland’s defence and security strategies.

Since becoming the prime minister of Iceland in December 2024, Kristrún Mjöll Frostadóttir, the leader of the Social Democratic Alliance, has seen a vast transition in the region’s political dynamics. Although the country is one of the few with no standing military, Iceland has traditionally relied on its membership in NATO and on a defence agreement with the United States of America for its security strategy. 

Serving as a central pillar of this strategy is the strengthening of the Keflavík Air Station. Closed in 2006 after the withdrawal of U.S. forces, and later reopened in 2014 following renewed tensions between the United States of America and Russia, the base serves as a key NATO outpost for monitoring movements in the region. Today, Keflavík regularly hosts exercises for allied forces and supports NATO’s integrated Air and Missile Defence through surveillance and air defence systems. 

By increasing defence-related spending, improving infrastructure, and supporting regular NATO air policing missions, Frostadóttir is reinforcing Iceland’s role as a strategic hub without building a standing army. Together with seven Arctic NATO nations, Frostadóttir has agreed on a joint approach, “Arctic Sentry”. The approach seeks to increase presence and security in the region, aiming to bring all activity in the region under unified command by providing enhanced coordination of military operations, intelligence, and surveillance.

Together with Greenland, the country lies on the intersection between the Arctic Ocean, Europe, and North America, and plays a vital role in controlling key maritime routes and the region’s geopolitical environment. The area, also known as the GIUK Gap, or the strategic boundary between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom, provides a critical gateway for Western air and naval forces. 

Although Iceland is not a member of the EU, Frostadóttir is relaunching talks on security partnerships and expects a referendum on possible entry into the union by 2027. Building on Iceland’s 2009 participation in the establishment of the Nordic Defence Cooperation, which laid the groundwork for the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8), Frostadóttir is consolidating Iceland’s role within this regional framework. These efforts aim to reinforce NATO’s northern flank while deepening defence collaboration and foreign policy coordination among other states with aligned strategic interests. Frostadóttir’s blazing redefinition of Iceland’s security policy positions the country as an increasingly proactive actor in the Nordic and transatlantic realm of governance.

What is changing Frostadóttir’s heat level?

Answer: Frostadóttir is boosting regional cooperation and diversifying Iceland’s defence partnerships amidst a changing regional security environment.

Until now, Icelandic security has been mostly reliant on NATO and the United States of America. With the recent shift in regional dynamics, Frostadóttir is making relevant changes to her policy-making, fostering security deals with the NB8 and aligning policies closer to EU frameworks. The combination of the NB8 aims to facilitate political dialogue and coordinate regional security, and the EU’s increasingly comprehensive Arctic strategy allows Iceland to enhance protection of critical infrastructure and cyber resilience, as well as to strengthen cooperation on environmental challenges in the region. 

Support from key European and transatlantic leaders, including Mark Rutte and Ursula von der Leyen, reinforces the strength of Frostadóttir’s approach to ensuring regional security and cooperation. Considering the increasing presence of China and Russia in the region, Iceland’s unique position as a NATO member without a standing army further heightens the importance of diversified alliances and innovative security cooperation. Domestically, the pro-EU government and growing public support for EU accession talks further boost the political momentum behind these shifts.

What is driving Frostadóttir?

Answer: Frostadóttir is driven by a strategic commitment to deepen Iceland’s integration with regional actors.

Although Iceland joined the 1994 European Economic Area agreement and later, in 2001, joined the Schengen Agreement, EU accession talks were stopped in 2013 under a past right-wing government. When elected as Prime Minister in December 2024, Frostadóttir formed a coalition government with the centrist People’s Party and the left-leaning, pro-European Reform Party. The move signalled a strategic commitment to integrate Iceland deeper into EU frameworks, to strengthen national security and adapt to changing geopolitical dynamics. 

By joining the EU, Iceland could gain greater influence by participating directly in EU decision-making, shaping policies and regulations that already affect it. EU membership would also stabilise trade, through reduced barriers and access to the EU’s collective trade agreements, while enhancing Iceland’s foreign relations. Domestic concerns over sovereignty, particularly in prominent sectors such as fishing, require balancing, influencing Frostadóttir’s approach to rewriting Iceland’s defence policy.

Recent policy shifts in the United States of America, including President Trump’s implementation of 10% import tariffs and threats to Greenland, have raised questions about its reliability as an ally of Iceland. This growing uncertainty has intensified Frostadóttir’s urgency to diversify Iceland’s defence partnerships and assert greater regional leadership. In particular, the prioritised strengthening of cooperation within Nordic and Baltic, and EU frameworks, reduces overdependence on a single guarantor while reinforcing the country’s strategic relevance in the region.

Further driven by the need to gain international recognition and strengthen relations with allies, Frostadóttir is pursuing policies that address Iceland’s vulnerability as a small nation reliant on powerful partners for security. In response, Frostadóttir’s active efforts at diversifying Iceland’s diplomatic relations not only reinforce Iceland’s domestic security but also elevate its standing on the international stage as a proactive and reliable player in both Arctic and global affairs.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Frostadóttir’s leadership signals a shift toward a focus on regional security in an era marked by uncertainty.

Frostadóttir’s move from a reliance on a few powerful allies toward diversified partnerships lay the groundwork for how other smaller nations, particularly island nations or nations without militaries, can assert agency and ensure security amid external tensions in surrounding regions. The Icelandic Prime Minister’s move exemplifies this through emphasising integration, infrastructure, and political alignment.

The shift in the Icelandic approach to defence further indicates how present-day dynamics have evolved. Security influence in the Arctic region is no longer determined solely by military capacity, but rather by collaboration and connectivity. Nonetheless, building strong partnerships, maintaining strong communications, and sharing intelligence have become just as vital to regional stability as traditional military strength.