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• Dissanayake won the 2024 presidential elections in Sri Lanka with a small majority.
• The upcoming parliamentary elections will determine whether Dissanayake’s administration can secure enough support to remain in power.
• Dissanayake’s administration will need to navigate and balance its strategic relations with both China and India. 

Why is Dissanayake’s heat level MILD? 

Answer: Dissanayake won the presidential elections yet his administration lacks a majority in the current Parliament.

On September 22, 2024, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, was elected President of Sri Lanka with 42.31% of votes, following a high voter turnout of 79,46%. These elections were particularly important due to the fact that they have been the first presidential elections after the 2022 uprising. 

The 2022 economic and political crisis led to severe inflation, high interest rates, a devalued rupee and an unsustainable level of debt causing widespread shortages of essential goods. This resulted in mass protests called Aragalaya movement, where thousands of Sri Lankans took to the streets demanding political reform and accountability. 

The population blamed President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration for economic mismanagement, corruption and abuse of power. His success in the present elections is closely tied to his support for these protests, which called for the resignation of Rajapaksa, whose family had dominated Sri Lankan politics for decades. 

After this, the Parliament elected Ranil Wickremesinghe as interim president, yet he was seen as linked to the Rajapaksa regime. By supporting the protests positioned himself as a leader of change, challenging the political status quo. During his election campaign he focused on the economy and he also promised to prosecute members of the Rajapaksa family and to clean the country from corruption. 

Although Dissanayake won the presidential election, he now faces the challenge of solidifying his power which depends on whether the NPP coalition can secure more seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections in November. 

Who is changing Dissanayake’s temperature? 

Answer: Dissanayake’s administration lacks support from the Tamil minority due to ethnic tensions and his party’s opposition to the Tamil cause during the civil war.

Dissanayake won the presidential elections, yet on September 24, 2024, just two days after his election,  he dissolved the Sri Lankan Parliament and called for snap elections to be held on November 14, 2024, almost a year ahead of schedule. 

This decision reflects his need to solidify political control, as his coalition, the NPP, only holds 3 out of the 225 seats in the current parliament​. With such limited representation, his administration faces significant challenges in passing legislation or enacting necessary reforms to address the country’s economic and social issues. By anticipating the parliamentary elections, Dissanayake aims to gain more seats and strengthen his power.

Although the recent election campaign in Sri Lanka was not centered on ethnicity, the election’s results highlighted ethnic divisions, particularly between the majority Sinhalese and the minority Tamil. Dissanayake gained strong support in Sinhalese-majority regions, where many voters resonated with his promises to address the economic crisis and challenge the political elite. 

However, Tamil minorities, many of whom were severely affected by the aftermath of the civil war, were less supportive of Dissanayake. This ethnic tension was exacerbated by Sri Lanka’s civil war, fought between the Sinhalese, who sought to maintain control of the country, and the Tamil, who aimed to establish a separate state in the north and east. 

The war lasted from 1983 until 2009, when the Sri Lankan government defeated the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Dissanayake’s lack of support in northern and eastern Sri Lanka is largely due to his party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), having opposed the Tamil cause during the civil war and being a party founded on Sinahlese nationalism. 

The election results also revealed fragmentation in the Tamil population’s preferences. Dissanayake will need to navigate these long-standing tensions, implementing inclusive policies to prevent further ethnic polarization and to increase the support for his administration​.

What is driving Dissanayake? 

Answer: Dissanayake seeks to consolidate his power by securing more seats in Parliament and strengthening strategic alliances with foreign powers.

One of Dissanayake’s primary goals is to increase his coalition’s presence in Parliament. His party, JVP, has long been viewed as extremist due to its Marxist roots and its involvement in the two insurrections in the 1970s and 1980s. These were aimed at overthrowing the Sri Lankan state, which they viewed as capitalist and imperialist. However, Dissanayake through the NPP coalition aimed to soften  his party’s image and gain broader support. 

Dissanayake’s is also driven by the urgent need to address Sri Lanka’s ongoing economic crisis. To stabilize the country’s economy, he must renegotiate the US$2.9-billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout deal. The IMF agreement, initially agreed upon in March 2023, includes austerity measures that have been unpopular among the population.

Dissanayake wants to adjust the terms of this deal to alleviate the burden on the population. Achieving economic recovery would not only help rebuild public trust in the government but also increase support for his administration.

Dissanayake must also navigate relationships with foreign powers, especially China and India, both of whom have interests in Sri Lanka’s political and economic future due to its geostrategic position.

China has been a key ally of Sri Lanka, especially in terms of economic investments and loans. As Sri Lanka’s largest creditor, China plays a crucial role in the country’s financial stability. China has heavily invested in Sri Lankan infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative,  including the controversial Hambantota Port. 

Dissanayake’s party, the NPP, has a pro-China stance due to its Marxist roots, and his administration is likely to maintain strong ties with Beijing which is essential for managing Sri Lanka’s debt and pursuing further economic cooperation​.

India has historically been involved in Sri Lankan domestic affairs, due to shared cultural ties with the Tamil minority and the island’s geographical proximity with India. However, the JVP has had a tense relationship with India, particularly due to its opposition to India’s role in the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Accord and the Indian peacekeeping mission. 

Dissanayake has sought to develop ties with India yet he had also threatened to cancel an Indian wind power project led by the Adani Group, which has strained relations with New Delhi. Despite this, India has an interest in improving relations with the Sri Lanka government in order to counter China’s growing influence in South Asia. 

What does this mean for you? 

Answer: Dissanayake’s election marks a shift away from traditional candidates, but his success depends on gaining parliamentary support and balancing ties with China and India.

Dissanayake is the first candidate to be elected president that is not part of the two major parties, namely Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and United National Party (UNP). Thus, Dissanayake’s election marks a turning point in Sri Lanka’s politics. 

Nevertheless, his coalition currently has not enough support to pass legislation nor reforms. Consequently, the next parliamentary elections on  November 14, 2024 are a key date in order to see whether Dissanayake’s administration will be able to hold the power and gain more support to implement its policies. 

Dissanayake’s administration faces the challenge of balancing relationships with key global powers. Maintaining strong ties with China, Sri Lanka’s largest creditor, is crucial to managing the country’s debt and securing further economic support. At the same time, navigating strained relations with India is essential, especially to gain more support from the Tamil minority and maintain regional stability.