Bola Tinubu’s COLD efforts to stabilize Nigeria

  • Since becoming President of Nigeria in 2023, Bola Tinubu has been struggling with a decrease in popularity.
  • Bola Tinubu is facing a backlash from both the population and the opposition amid economic crises and the outbreak of bandit violence.
  • Tinubu’s failure to resolve economic crises and implement appropriate policy measures left Nigeria teetering on the edge of significant internal turmoil.
Bola Tinubu
Chatham House, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Why is Bola Tinubu’s COLD?

Answer: Bola Tinubu is COLD as he faces growing public discontent, in the form of nationwide protests.

Nigeria’s President Tinubu, from the All Progressives Congress (APC), was elected in February 2023. One of his central campaign promises was to address Nigeria’s economic challenges, an issue many believe worsened under his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, representative of APC, as well. This association with the former administration alienated much of the younger population, who sought change and renewal.

As a result, Tinubu achieved poor election results despite winning the Presidency, securing only 35% of the votes and falling short of a majority. In fact, he narrowly defeated Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), who garnered 28% of the votes, and Peter Obi (from the Labour Party) who secured 25% of the votes. In addition, these elections were marked with relatively low participation with only 25 million votes cast out of 93 million registered voters.  

In addition to failing to secure the majority, Tinubu’s popularity has continued to decline since his election due to his inability to solve two of the country’s main economic hardships. The first one is increasing public debt because a great part of the state’s revenue is consumed by the debt, which leaves little capital for essential services or funds for state development.

Another major economic challenge is inflation which has skyrocketed and led to increasing indices of poverty across the country. In June 2024, Nigeria experienced its 19th consecutive month of rising inflation, with the annual inflation rate reaching 33.88%, steadily deepening to reach 34.8% in January 2025. 

The protests have concentrated in August in a series of manifestations called #10DaysOfRage by the protestors. According to Amnesty International casualties from suppression reached over 22 people. Additionally, the Ministry of Trade and Investment estimates that every day of protest costs the country more than $324.68 million a day. 

The election results put Tinubu in a precarious situation without the support of the youth, as his counter-candidate Peter Obi focused on them more in his campaign, e.g. through financial youth empowerment, and no majority in the National Assembly, leaving him out in the cold trying to achieve his policy goals.

What is changing Bola Tinubu’s heat level?

Answer: Tinubu’s increasing unpopularity is due to two key factors: high poverty levels and worsening security within the country.

Since Tinubu’s election, Nigeria has seen high poverty levels strongly linked to economic dissatisfaction. Skyrocketing food and fuel prices have been significant contributing factors. According to the World Bank, around 40% of Nigerians (approximately 83 million people) live below the poverty line. The ever-increasing inflation caused by Tinubu’s failed policies, such as petrol subsidy, poses a risk of 33 million people suffering food insecurity by August this year.

Another factor contributing to Tinubu’s unpopularity is his inability to secure the country against Islamist insurgency and bandit groups. The outbreak of violence by Boko Haram and the groups created after the split of the original organization. The Islamic State West Africa Province’s (ISWAP’s) agenda includes imposing Sharia law and thus, an Islamic caliphate in Nigeria while undermining the now-existing secular state. The militant groups target public spaces, such as schools, institutions, and civilian centres to eliminate the opposition to its objectives. The group remains highly active, especially in the northwestern part of the country, while the Splinter group Lukarawa is active in the northeastern region of the state, such as Borno State. 

What is driving Bola Tinubu?

Answer: Tinubu’s goal is to resolve key issues to strengthen the country, as unresolved problems could risk further instability. Nonetheless, his main motivation is to maintain his political power.

One key factor driving Tinubu is his commitment to stabilize Nigeria, with a particular focus on the northwestern region, which has been grappling with the intensification of violence. His motivations lie in his ambitions to stay in power and maintain his political position and leadership. The region has been severely affected by banditry, Islamist insurgency, and criminal activities, which have disrupted daily life and undermined economic growth. The focal point of these clashes is the Borno state. The region has struggled with marginalization in terms of development resulting in the greatest poverty, and lack of both education and infrastructure in the nation, as well as, has been the ‘birthplace’ of the aforementioned Boko Haram in 2002.

Economic stability is equally crucial. Without strong economic growth and development, regions vulnerable to violence have become hotbeds for dissent and social unrest. Lack of state infrastructure, and the lack of push for development for tribes living in borderlands, still unaddressed, only powers the turmoil.

All of these issues are essential to Bola Tinubu, as they prevent him from maintaining his political power, and undermine him as a leader. The leadership and political position that he upholds drive him to recognize and push the policy to prevent these problems’ escalation.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: The internal turmoil in Nigeria has several economic implications on the international market, as well as security and geopolitical impacts affecting regional stability.

Firstly, there are economic implications of financial instability in Nigeria, namely inflation. The oil sector composes 80% of budgetary revenue for Nigeria and 95% of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings. With rising prices of oil in the country due to inflation might disrupt the local and regional oil market. The main importers of oil from Nigeria are great international actors, such as China, India, and the Netherlands. Nigeria counts for 2.25% of global oil reserves and ranks 10th in a global perspective. The internal turmoil might also destabilize the entire West African Region, since Nigeria is one of the key players in regional affairs, including the Agreement Establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Maja Prokopiuk

Research & Analysis