• Subianto imposed austerity measures to fund Asta Cita, a costly development program, which has put pressure on Indonesia’s economy.
• As part of the program, Subianto expanded the military’s role in domestic affairs, which led to  domestic criticism. 
• Despite public backlash and implementation failures, Subianto retains the support  from both the legislative and executive branches, keeping his status MILD.

Why is Subianto MILD?

Answer: Subianto imposed austerity measures to fund his development program, Asta Cita, and expanded the military’s role,  keeping him MILD.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, a former military general, won the Indonesian presidential elections and assumed office on 20 of October 2024. Subianto’s campaign centered around Asta Cita, or the “Eight Missions,” a national vision aimed at advancing Indonesia’s development, social welfare, and national security. The program is operationalized through 17 Priority Programs, ranging from child nutrition and education to infrastructure and defense. The flagship initiative, Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG), is a free meal program that targets malnutrition.

To finance Asta Cita, Subianto implemented austerity measures, cutting approximately USD 43 billion from sectors including healthcare, the Ministry of Public Works, and education. These cuts reduced civil servants’ allowances, education funding, and infrastructure projects, which in turn lowered incomes and economic activity. The resulting decline in household purchasing power and broader economic strain resulted in GDP growth of 4.87% in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Subianto also increased the defense budget and supported laws that expanded Indonesia’s armed forces’ role in domestic affairs. This included allowing active-duty officers to hold more civilian government positions and broadening the military’s non-combat mandates into areas such as disaster response and border security. The growing presence of active-duty military personnel in government has raised public concerns about a return to military-dominated governance, drawing comparisons to the New Order period under former Indonesian President Suharto, when the armed forces held substantial control over civilian institutions. 

At the same time, implementation challenges have affected Asta Cita’s credibility. For example, following its debut, MBG faced various difficulties attributable to inefficient management of the funds and inadequate oversight, resulting in a high number of food poisoning cases. The program’s supervision is dominated by retired military officers rather than nutrition experts, exemplifying Subianto’s growing reliance on the military.

The combination of economic strain, increased military authority, and program inefficiencies contributed to public opposition to Subianto. This discontent culminated first in the student-led “Dark Indonesia” demonstrations across multiple cities in February 2025 and later expanded to wider protests in August 2025. 

Despite sustained public opposition, Subianto enjoys substantial support within the government, including legislative backing and alignment with influential political elites. This institutional support allows him to advance Asta Cita with limited constraints while his current term runs through 2029, keeping his heat level MILD.

What is changing Subianto’s heat level?

Answer: Despite backlash due to austerity measures and the growing presence of the military, Subianto retains parliamentary and cabinet backing, leaving him MILD.

Despite public backlash, Subianto is able to continue advancing Asta Cita, as he benefits from strong legislative and executive support. 

Firstly, his party, Partai Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement Party), leads a governing coalition that controls well above the 291-seat majority  in the 580‑member House of Representatives. That majority allows him to pass budgets and advance Asta Cita without meaningful legislative resistance. This was demonstrated by the military reform passed unanimously by the House of Representatives in March 2025. The bill caused public criticism; nonetheless, the law was passed without obstruction, demonstrating institutional backing. 

In addition to legislative backing, senior officials and ministers publicly reaffirmed their commitment to Asta Cita. After assuming office, Subianto inaugurated, in October 2024 the largest cabinets ever in Indonesia, composed of 109 deputy ministers, known as the Red and White Cabinet. The cabinet includes representatives from nearly all political parties in the governing coalition, leaving only a small number of parties outside government. By assigning ministerial and deputy ministerial posts to leaders from these coalition parties, Subianto secured broad elite participation in his administration and rewarded political allies, strengthening his political support.

Therefore, support within the legislature and across government institutions has allowed Subianto to push forward Asta Cita effectively. Despite visible public opposition, these factors preserve his ability to govern with minimal constraint, keeping his heat level MILD.

What is driving Prabowo Subianto?

Answer: Subianto’s Asta Cita is shaped by his military background and by a will to clear his name from his reputation as a military officer  during the Suharto era.

Subianto’s leadership style and policies are deeply shaped by his military career. He joined the military at 19 and rose to the rank of general under his stepfather Suharto’s tenure, a period marked by authoritarian rule and human rights abuses. His military training and experience instilled in him a nationalistic, disciplined approach, emphasizing state control and security as central to governance.

Subianto’s economic policies are a form of nostalgic economic nationalism that traces back to the Suharto era when state control and military involvement were core principles of society. State interventionist policies such as Asta Cita reflect how his career influenced his political vision and will to develop Indonesia’s economy while increasing national security. 

Besides his military influence, Subianto is concerned about restoring his public image. During his career under the Suharto era, Subianto was accused of involvement in human rights violations, including torture and mass killings of civilians, most notably the Karkas massacre in East Timor. These allegations have made him a controversial figure in Indonesia. As a result, he is driven by a desire to distance himself from this past and rehabilitate his reputation in the public eye.

To restore his image, during his campaign, he appeared on social media platforms such as TikTok, where he performed celebratory dances, curating a soft, charismatic, grandfatherly image appealing to Gen Z citizens and securing their support. However, now that he is president, he has changed his rhetoric, appearing as a strong and energetic military-style leader.

With MBG he aims to fulfill his reputational goals by increasing the welfare of Indonesians. The program is expected to create a large multiplier effect, generating an estimated 1.5 million jobs and boosting local economies through the use of community kitchens and small businesses. Stimulating economic growth while combatting malnutrition could distance him from his past reputation.

Therefore, Subianto’s aim to advance Asta Cita is driven by his ideological commitment to state-led development and a desire to rehabilitate his public image.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Subianto’s increasing militarization reflects a trend in Southeast Asia, where military power is rising.

As part of the Asta Cita program, Subianto increased the defense budget, aligning Indonesia with a broader Southeast Asian trend toward military modernization. 

Nations in the ASEAN bloc, such as Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia, have been reliant on the US for defence equipment. However, rising strategic competition between the US and China has created greater uncertainty in the region, as ASEAN states are unsure how the rivalry between the two powers may affect regional stability, security partnerships, and future access to defence support. To reduce dependence on a single supplier, Southeast Asian countries are diversifying their defence procurement. In line with this strategy, Subianto has expanded Indonesia’s suppliers, acquiring new fighter aircraft from Turkey, South Korea, and France.

Additionally, the ASEAN bloc faces rising security concerns in the South China Sea as repeated Chinese incursions have become  more frequent. To protect maritime interests, ASEAN states are strengthening their naval and air defence capabilities.

In this context, Asta Cita’s call for strengthening defence capabilities and improving military capacity aligns with the region’s growing emphasis on security preparedness.