His Majesty King Mohammed VI of Morocco
To assess Morocco’s environmental challenges, a comprehensive outlook on the climate situation of the country will be provided, and its adverse impacts on local communities, on a social and economic level. The effects of climate change hinder Morocco’s development, which is why King Mohammed IV is dedicated to addressing them.
The biggest issues Morocco is facing are poverty, misery, and illiteracy, as stated by the leader himself during an interview. He also addressed the need for reform, primarily after the ‘years of lead’ (period of repression) on the principle that the government shall serve the people and not vice versa. On this basis, the king understands the value and need for the country to invest in green policies, as these funds would provide a steady stream of money for Morocco’s future.
Morocco is confronted with environmental challenges, causing King Mohammed IV to acknowledge the necessity for action. The most significant challenges experienced by the region include desertification, extreme weather conditions, and sea level rise. These challenges have a profound impact on the most important sectors of the economy. Agriculture accounts for almost 15% of the GDP and employs 40% of the population. Tourism generates 7.3% of the GDP, and whilst it makes up a smaller share, it is the fastest growing industry in Morocco, and currently supports approximately two million direct/indirect jobs.
Environmental Challenge #1: Desertification
Desertification by ‘UNCCD Terminology’ is the degradation of land in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas as a result of human activities and climatic variations; it can take centuries for the topsoil to restore once lost. Morocco is particularly susceptible to temperatures projected to increase between 1 to 1.5°C by 2050 (rate of warming higher inland) and average rainfall expected to decrease by 10–20 percent, and 30 percent in the Saharan regions by 2100.
Extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation are causing the Saharan Desert to expand northeastward, threatening almost 90% of Morocco’s land with desertification. Only regions near the Mediterranean Sea, north of the Atlantic Ocean, and northwest of the Atlas Mountains are likely to remain unaffected. The following graph illustrates these projections.
Land degradation has the greatest impact on Morocco’s rural population, as 80% are employed in the agricultural sector. The predominant farming practice heavily relies on rain-fed crops, which provide two-thirds of the average person’s daily calories. As soil fertility drops, food insecurity and poverty in rural areas will rise, which threatens political stability. Seen in the food riots that happened in Casablanca (Morocco’s biggest city) between 1981–1984, it led to 600 people and thousands of injured after the national security forces had to get involved.
The cost of land degradation is estimated to be $2.1 billion, which is 3.5% of the country’s GDP each year. The figure accounts for losses in agricultural and grazing productivity, as well as land-use changes.
The King is particularly concerned about the socio-economic effects of desertification on Morocco’s population. It underscores the economic burden and potential political unrest led by increased food insecurity from land loss.
Environmental Challenge #2: Extreme weather events
Extreme weather events are defined as unusual characteristics in terms of magnitude, location, and time that deviate significantly from the average weather pattern of a region. In this section, extreme weather events in Morocco will be explored, with a focus on the water cycle: floods, droughts, and rainfall patterns. Extreme weather events are a significant concern in Morocco, given the arid climate and reliance on water resources for the agriculture and tourism sectors. The agribusiness is the largest consumer of water, utilising approximately 85% of the total water supply, which translates to 11–15 billion cubic meters of water annually. Tourism, whilst precise figures are inconsistent, is also known for its high share of water depletion, particularly from swimming pools, spas, and landscaped resorts.
Floods
Morocco has experienced significant floods as a result of a changing climate, with flash floods becoming more frequent due to hotter air holding more moisture, combined with overall drier conditions. Between the years 1980–2020, floods have been the leading natural hazard in the country, as seen in the graph below.
The region most affected and continuing to be in the future is Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceima, the northernmost region of Morocco, where 70% of the population is already affected. Floods are projected to increase by 31% in 2050 and 85% in 2080. It has led to the destruction of agricultural lands, grazing areas, and crops, intensifying food shortages and economic hardships.
Droughts
Morocco is entering its sixth consecutive year of drought in 2025, according to the African Development Bank Group. The country is already vulnerable to droughts characterised by its overall dry climate, with the yearly maximum number of consecutive wet days (>1 mm) rarely exceeding more than 10. In 2024, the regions of Morocco that were primarily affected by drought were in Béni Mellal-Khénifra (mountain region), with the average consecutive dry period spanning a month, in the northern regions two months, and in the southern Souss-Massa more than four months.
Currently, 80% of Morocco’s population is exposed to prolonged droughts, and it is expected to intensify. The maximum number of consecutive dry days is projected to increase by an average of 1.29 days per decade in the period 2000–2050. Meaning drought periods will lengthen during the summer and encroach into spring and fall, leading to a larger proportion of people exposed to drought. This is especially evident in the coastal regions of Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceima, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, and Casablanca-Settat (seen in the map below).
These regions will undergo the harshest consequences as drought durations are expected to increase by 2 days per decade over the same period, causing an additional 10 dry days over 50 years. This will slow the development process of agriculture and tourism as they are dominant economic sectors in these regions.
Change in rainfall patterns
Morocco experiences a diverse range of precipitation patterns, which are expected to shift towards extremes as a result of climate change. This will result in some areas experiencing floods, while others will experience prolonged periods of drought.
To illustrate this point, the northern region is characterised by significant rainfall, with an average of over 600mm per year in 2024. In contrast, the south region has much lower precipitation, with an average of under 100mm per year, as shown in the map below.
There is greater uncertainty regarding precipitation than temperature, which is easier to predict in the long term for Morocco. The World Bank suggests that the country will experience a significant decrease in precipitation, from 298.29 mm (1995–2014, historical scenario) to 255.22 mm (2040–2059, foreseen scenario) as illustrated in the following graph. The region experiencing the greatest changes is the northern parts of Morocco, which are ominous for their agricultural hotspots and tourist destinations.
King Mohammed VI cares because such extreme weather events have a significant socio-economic impact. Furthermore, the adverse effects of weather events on the local economy are multifaceted. These include the disruption of agricultural activities and the further development of tourism (due to insufficient or excessive water). In the agricultural sector, the current farming system will not be able to sustain the water scarcity, as the traditional practices require 150 millimeters of water before being able to start plowing. The average annual decrease in precipitation will affect the productivity of crop output, hence the agribusiness will become a risky venture in the future. Moreover, an uncertain water supply will slow future development in the tourism sector. Tourism is water-intensive and will contribute to rising regional water demand, especially as initiatives like ‘Plan Azur’ push investments into 5-star resorts. These resorts require large amounts of water for swimming pools, spas, and landscaped grounds. The government’s goal with Plan Azur is to position Morocco among the top 20 holiday destinations, but this ambition will put further strain on water resources. In addition to affecting the local economy, it may also give rise to other social problems, including poverty, malnutrition, and food insecurity.
Environmental Challenge #3: Rising Sea Level
Morocco is at significant threat to sea level rise because of its low-lying coastal regions. Predictions indicate that a sea level rise of 4 meters could inundate approximately 10% of the country’s area, and a rise of 11 meters could affect over 24% of the coastal regions 18. This is particularly difficult, seeing that about 60-65% of the population lives by the coast, whose livelihood depends on agriculture and tourism in these areas. Increased salinity intrusion from the sea adversely affects agricultural productivity and freshwater resources, further exacerbating food and water security issues. The potential displacement of up to 146,000 people from coastal regions due to rising sea levels underscores the severe socio-economic impacts of this challenge.
Effective adaptation measures, such as assessing risks, building coastal defenses, and relocating infrastructure, are crucial to mitigate these impacts. However, the consequences of rising sea levels could nullify decades of development investments, drastically altering the landscape and socio-economic conditions of the affected areas. This challenge necessitates robust leadership and international support to implement sustainable adaptation strategies. As sea levels rise the most vulnerable sector is agricultural, especially coastal agriculture, which is prone to soil salinity and inundation. This poses a drastic risk to food security internally and the livelihoods of millions of people dependent on agriculture for both economic and nutritional reasons. Moreover, the development of the tourism sector will struggle to flourish with necessary adaptation measures having to be implemented beforehand, the Moroccan government has begun an emergency plan of €200 million to support the risk of rising sea levels.
IExRAIA Summer Research Program:
This article is an excerpt from a report on King Mohammed VI produced as part of an RAIA research program on climate leaders. For a full picture of Ruto’s climate leadership, including the sources, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.
Authors: Finja Ullrich & Aleksej Obradovic
Editor: Ruby Hawari
Project Leads: Roxane de Bergevin & Stefani Obradovic
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