IE University x RAIA Research Program 2025

Sheinbaum: Mexico is part of North America and the third largest country in Latin America, covering 1,972,550 sq km. As one of the most biologically diverse countries in the world, a range of biomes can be found due to the varied geography, altitude, and climate. It holds a population of 129.8 million people bordering the United States, Guatemala, and Belize. The capital is Mexico City. 

Historically Mexico is a nation with a rich indigenous history with Pre-Columbian Mexico being one of the world’s cradles of civilization. Along with Spanish colonization, structural inequalities solidified through gender, race, the environment and the economy. One way this can be seen is in Mexico’s categorization as a highly unequal country with a Gini coefficient of around 0.5. 

The political system is composed of a 32-state federal presidential constitutional republic led by a presidency serving a single six-year term. On June 2 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum  was elected by over 60 million Mexican voters to succeed the previous president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), and continue their party MORENA’s shared objective of the coined Fourth Transformation. This refers to AMLO’s agenda aimed at redefining Mexico’s political and social order through policies aimed at combating corruption, increasing support for marginalized populations, moving away from neoliberal economic models, and expanding the role of the state in social welfare provision. Sheinbaum’s own agenda can be visualized through  her National Development Plan to be implemented from 2025 to 2030 published on April 15, 2025. In it, her administration diagnoses the current situation, and proposes objectives, strategies and priorities relating to education, health, labor, security and sustainability in order to stimulate development. 

Currently, Mexico contributes 1.28% to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions and ranks #72 in climate vulnerability and #86 in human development, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). As a result, Mexico has been a member of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Partnership to the Paris Agreement since 2017. In 2022 their commitment was updated to an unconditional emissions reduction of 35% (up from 22% in 2020) and a conditional target of 40% (up from 36%) by 2030 if external support is secured. 

Air Pollution

Mexico has one of the highest and most deadly rates of air pollution in the world, linked to an estimated 33,000 deaths per year, almost 20,000 of which are from outdoor air pollution focused around cities. Particulate Matter (PM) comes in different varieties based on the diameter of the particles, with PM2.5 posing a particular threat to health and the environment due to it being able to more easily penetrate instruments (such as lungs) as a result of its size. In Mexico, PM2.5 is mainly emitted by exhaust fumes and has concentrations in between 18.9 and 20.3 micrograms per square metre. This is double the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommended limit of 10 micrograms per square metre. 

Mexico City, being the country’s most populous city, is home to some of the worst air quality in the country, not least due to congestion. In fact, the city’s congestion, in addition to continued urban expansion and population growth, has been directly linked to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, including Carbon Monoxide (CO), Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), and other pollutants (with vehicles being responsible for 86% of CO and 86% of NOx emissions). PM2.5 emissions, over 50% of which are linked to vehicle emissions, are concentrated at about 25 micrograms per  square metre, and cause an estimated 6,700 premature deaths a year in the city. Other airborne pollutants present in Mexico City have been found to add to illnesses, including respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease; and in 2008 overall emissions caused by gasoline combustions were calculated to cause 14,000 premature deaths. 

Similar results are found in other major population centers around Mexico. In Monterrey (population of 5.3 million) municipalities with higher concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were linked with higher mortality rates. The same pollutant concentrations and mortality for those aged 60+ were especially high on significantly hotter days (temperature 25% hotter than the previous day). In Guadalajara (population of 5.2 million) local concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, NOx, and CO were all found to have a higher correlation with mortality than COVID infections. In Tijuana (population of 2.3 million) the presence of CO and NOx were linked to increases in lung cancer, and the city’s air pollution has also been found to affect Tijuana river pollution, leading to further transboundary pollution as the river flows into the United States.

Mexico City’s climate change-accelerated consequences are also found to disproportionately affect the approximately 40% of the city’s citizens living below the poverty line. The geographic presence of airborne pollutants—especially PM10 and PM20.5—is negatively correlated to the geographic wage distribution of the city, a relationship that is aggravated by poorer citizens’ increased difficulty to reach proper medical attention. This trend goes beyond Mexico City’s borders, as satellite image analyses show increases in PM2.5 concentrations in localities with decreasing wage averages, theorized to be due to a combination of highway and industry pollutants being more often located in poorer districts. Such patterns especially affect Sheinbaum and her voter base which skews significantly to lower wage brackets. In the 2024 presidential elections, 65% of voters earning less than $10,000 MXN per month voted for Sheinbaum, followed by 59% of voters earning between $10,000 and $15,000, and 62% of those earning between $15,000 and $25,000. The average negative correlation between wages and Sheinbaum’s voter share displays a particular interest for Sheinbaum to heed the interests of lower wage classes in her policies to assure continued support, including environmental policies.

Water Scarcity & Biodiversity Loss

A growing concern for Mexico that has been flamed by climate change has been the country’s water crisis. The Falkenmark Index defines water stress as being present in any area with less than 1700 cubic meters of water available per person. Despite approximately 3600 cubic meters of water being available per person nationally, this figure conceals a significant geographical disparity between the wetter southern regions and the drier northern regions (the latter of which only have an estimated 1520 cubic meters per person). Water availability has reportedly decreased by nearly 30% in the past three decades, likely due to the increasing occurrence of droughts, unpredictable precipitation patterns, and continuously increasing population. The Water Insecurity Experience Scale (WISE) uses a questionnaire to estimate the water security of households through questionnaires assessing accessibility to fundamental water resources. According to WISE, over 30% of households in certain regions face water scarcity (the most drastic example being Guerrero), while others only report 3%.

The water resources that are available are subject to mismanagement by the private and public sectors. Up to 76% of clean water in the entire country is consumed by the agriculture sector, which ends up reportedly wasting up to 70% of said water. About 40% of the water that is wasted is due to pipe leaks by inefficient and unmaintained networks. Furthermore, as of the beginning of 2025, the Public Water Rights Registry reveals over 550,000 water concession holders in Mexico, over 20% of which are for industrial use. Industrial activities consuming water are also expected to increase by 15% by 2030 if left unchecked.

Out of the water that is available in the country, over half of all surface water is considered contaminated (mostly due to agricultural discharge), and around 8% of underwater sources show signs of contamination. Of all the contaminated sources, 20% are believed to be due to industry activity, especially the mining and petrochemicals sector. The water crisis also has a socioeconomic dimension, as scarcity disproportionately affects poorer rural communities, whom the agriculture sector and concession title holders divert most water from. The contaminated water often leads to health issues which are also disproportionally harmful to poorer communities that have less access to quality healthcare. Additionally, water related natural disasters, including droughts and floods, have shown to be unequivocally fatal to rural towns, particularly in Northern regions during summer months (local wet season). These variables make water insecurity a necessary issue to tackle by the federal government, but also an attractive one to Morena, a labour party, and Sheinbaum herself. 

Increasingly unpredictable weather patterns are also affecting decreasing biodiversity in Mexico, alongside other climate change-accelerated consequences and population growth. While the state hosts approximately 10% of all unique species in the world, several animal and plant species have become extinct only in the past century, including 70 vertebrate species.  Due to this, special attention has been placed in introducing federal, regional, and local institutions to protect particularly vulnerable species and areas through wildlife and biosphere reserves. Some reserves have found success in maintaining environmental health and biodiversity while also offering economic opportunity under strong local leadership, like in the case of Sierra Gorda. This success is not universal to all reserves, however, with 14 such reserves in Central America facing continued species extensions (especially in the case of plant species), several of them being in Mexico. 

Fossil Fuels & Energy

Mexico is primarily dependent on natural gas (mainly imported) for domestic consumption, it relies economically on oil exports, and suffers direct consequences of climate change. Approximately 25% of the energy mix is made up of clean energy sources, and 75% are fossil fuels. 

This imbalance underscores a critical energy paradox: Mexico’s reliance on fossil fuels persists even as the country confronts mounting climate vulnerability. The current challenge lies in balancing Mexico’s role as the  fourteenth-leading net exporter of oil, with declining production, while simultaneously meeting its growing energy demand (25% increase since 2000), and upholding their international pledge to reduce emissions. 

Energy affordability adds another layer of complexity. The average electricity price in Mexico rose from $119.52 USD/MWh in 2022 to $151.60 USD/MWh in 2023, marking the highest point in a fluctuating trend. As of September 2024, household electricity prices stood at ¢10.3 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour, up from ¢8.2 cents at the end of 2020. Despite this steady rise, Mexico remains among the countries with the lowest residential electricity prices globally.  

Meanwhile, environmental indicators reflect the costs of this fossil-heavy model. Mexico registered 175.2 MtCO2 total emissions in 2024. In 2021, Mexico revised its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to raise its greenhouse gas emissions reduction target from 22% to 30% by 2030 and 50% GHG reduction (from 2000 levels) by 2050. Although decarbonization progress in the power sector is widely studied, Mexico’s specific case remains underexplored in the literature. Instead, researchers, using scenario modeling, found that under high energy demand, no optimized portfolio meets the 2050 emissions target of 43.9 Mt CO₂eq/year.

Despite this scientific warning, public investment patterns continue to support fossil infrastructure. Continuously, the federal budget is allocated to oil refineries such as the “Dos Bocas” in Tabasco—expected to emit 2.1 MtCO2e per year—or the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE, in Spanish), invested in the “modernisation” of coal, diesel, oil and gas power plants.”

This approach is shaped in part by a political shift that began in 2013 with an energy reform implemented under President Enrique Peña Nieto. This redefined PEMEX and the CFE as “productive state enterprises” giving them more autonomy while still remaining public. The aim was to attract national and international investment following the decline in PEMEX’s oil production. In 2018, upon taking office, AMLO reversed key components of the 2013 reform under the reasoning that it prioritized private interests over the public good. This nationalist framework emphasized “energy sovereignty” by having the state reassert control over the energy sector, particularly through PEMEX and the CFE. The components that were cancelled were energy auctions, regulatory agencies were weakened or bypassed, and investment in private renewable energy sources were redirected towards refineries, gas plants, and CFE-led infrastructure. 

Yet despite these institutional barriers, the potential for renewable energy remains immense. Generation holds large capacities in solar, geothermal, and wind sources. With the highest potential generator being solar photovoltaics with a generation of 24,918 GW, 2.5 GW could be extracted from conventional geothermal sources and 3,669 GW of wind – creating a combination that could meet the country’s electricity needs a hundred times over. Mexico has seen “growth in renewable electricity generation from wind and solar, which almost tripled from 2015 to 2022.” Plus, between 2000-2023, crude oil production decreased 40%.  In the end, difficulty lies in balancing Mexico’s dependence on fossil fuels and its potential for renewable energy, raising questions about how it can meet climate goals while maintaining economic stability, energy, and affordability. 

Political Stakes

Beyond the environmental consequences Mexico and its population are facing, it is equally as prudent to understand the political history and context that surrounds Sheinbaum’s policy making. Since becoming a genuine democracy at the turn of the millennium with the end of the dominant party system, Mexico’s environmental policy has been slow to develop, exemplified by being the only OECD or G20 nation without a net zero goal. Between 1994 and 2018, federal focus on tackling climate change was rarely prompted. Reports showed that within that time frame, the multiple PRI and Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) presidents only highlighted environmental action as a political goal when prompted by international agreements developed at the time. During his third overall (and first successful) run for the presidency, López Obrador was expected to be the first Mexican president to prioritize environmental policy, but investment into the fossil fuel industry and the dissolution of independent environmental offices raised worries among international observers that economic interests would be prioritized over environmental goals. 

Due to their prior close political collaboration, Sheinbaum was accused by political rivals and publications of acting as a “puppet” to López Obrador since announcing her intention to run for president. Despite having shown political independence while governing Mexico City with her differing confrontation of the COVID-19 pandemic, López Obrador’s influence over Morena leaves room for doubt over whether Sheinbaum will be able to make her own name, especially in the field of environmental politics. Sheinbaum has mocked these accusations and attempted to maintain her independence while pledging to continue the ‘Fourth Transformation’ begun by her predecessor. Worth noting is the relative fragility of Mexico’s young democracy, demonstrated by the volatility of its political agents and parties, requiring Sheinbaum to balance her own priorities and those of the even younger Morena, which is enjoying massive popularity nationally but faces internal rifts. 

Internationally, Mexico is also expected to fall in line with the international agreements and climate goals it entered into before Sheinbaum became president. Core among them is the Paris Climate Agreement, which Mexico signed in 2015 and was credited as being an “active participator” during its negotiations. The Paris agreement includes a 2030 goal of reducing greenhouse emissions by 36% compared to what they would have otherwise been, and a 51% decrease for black carbon. In addition, the United Nations SDG 2030 goals also present a method for quantifying whether Mexico’s climate situation is improving; before Sheinbaum’s inauguration Mexico was identified as slow to incorporate said goals since they came into effect. Ironically, Sheinbaum had released an article prior to governing Mexico City criticizing the SDG goals for what she identified as a lack of focus on scientific development, dismissing a collaborative relationship between developed and developing countries, and writing certain goals in a way where they compete with each other for resources.

As a labour party president, Sheinbaum’s climate policy agenda has placed an unprecedented emphasis on intersectionality where previous Mexican administrations’ climate and energy policies had not. According to Patricia Hill Collins, a prominent scholar who expanded critical theory and public policy discourse, an intersectional approach considers the compound effects of multiple forms of marginalization, aiming to create more inclusive and equitable outcomes across diverse social groups. Within the Mexican 2025-2030 National Development Plan, sustainable development is combined with rights of indigenous and afro-mexican communities. From reiterating the importance of preserving the country’s sovereignty, to investing in water, renewables, restorations, and state-owned enterprises, proposed climate action is politically influenced. This represents a sharper sensitivity to sustainability compared to the previous administrations, though limited performance indicators and ongoing fossil fuel reliance undermine its overall progress. 

Sheinbaum’s inclusive vision links clean energy with rural development and equity, but “major contradictions threaten these goals.” For instance, BBVA Research has found that oil expansion, subsidy persistence, and fiscal constraints threaten climate goals unless cross-sector alignment and measurable implementations improve. Thus, the policy preferences that simultaneously resemble and diverge from her predecessors play a role in the outcome of her performance. 

Another crucial factor is her relationship with the United States and how this limits her choices at times. Throughout the last century, the United States and Mexico have collaborated closely on policy. These two states share one of the strongest trade relationships in the world, underwritten by the USMCA, signed first in 2000 by the United States, Mexico and Canada, and renegotiated recently. Sheinbaum has expressed it to be “one of the best trade deals in history, it benefited the three countries.” Plus, Sheinbaum has stressed that “Mexico will have a ‘good’ relationship with Trump.” Together, this illustrates Sheinbaum’s willingness to cooperate with her neighboring state, despite potential differences, in order to reap the potential benefits. The United States and Mexico also share natural resources along Mexico’s northern border. Representatively, sharing water has been possible through the basis of the 1944 Water Treaty in spite of conflicts due to overuse, pollution, and climate-driven drought.

Nevertheless, this relationship is undergoing an impasse due to clashes between the Trump and Sheinbaum Administrations’ goals. Mainly, the United States blames Mexico for allegedly permitting the movement of illegal migration and drug trafficking. Additionally, the Trump administration shows concern for the level of Chinese influence on manufacturing and nearshoring in Mexico. As a result, the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, renewed blanket tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum, and threatened broader trade penalties.   In response to the concerns over security, Sheinbaum deployed the national guard, ramped up fentanyl crackdowns, and extradited cartel leaders to the United States. Regarding China, imposing tariffs on the state has been proposed in order to appease the Trump Administration. This directly relates to Mexico’s hopes of increasing the job creation and industrial investment generated by companies looking to distance themselves from China. More generally however, these points of contention between the United States and Mexico create economic uncertainty that restrict investments. Resources could be diverted to buffer trade shocks or continue to appease US demands. Hence, this menaces Sheinbaum’s emphasis on sovereignty in her environmental agenda as Trump’s security resource-intensive requests have overridden climate spending.

IExRAIA Summer Research Program:

This article is an excerpt from a report on Claudia Sheinbaum produced as part of an RAIA research program on climate leaders. For a full picture of Ruto’s climate leadership, including the sources, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs.

Authors: Josip Biondić & Manuela Altés Alcaraz

Editor: Francia Morales

Project Lead: Roxane de Bergevin & Stefani Obradovic