• Macron’s voting reform in New Caledonia triggered civil unrest from indigenous groups.
• France points finger at Azerbaijan for inciting riots to pursue personal interests.
• Anglo-Saxon allies worry about diminishing influence over the Indo-Pacific region.

Why is Macron’s heat level mild?

Answer: Macron pauses voting reform in New Caledonia as tensions amongst Kanaks are pushed to a boiling point.

The South Pacific territory of New Caledonia has been held firmly within French control since 1853 which birthed and fostered the indigenous Kanak’s persistent plight for independence. Notable tensions erupted in the 1980s, leading to the Matignon Accords of 1988 and the Nouméa Accord of 1998 which strived to strengthen Kanaks’ autonomy and serve as the gradual materialisation of their hope for an independence referendum and, ultimately, a free nation-state. However, delays and controversies have plagued this process considering the mutually exclusive and diverging foundational interests of the Kanaks and the French. 

The most recent, and ongoing, flare-up was instigated by President Macron’s proposed voting reform to expand the electorate of New Caledonia’s provincial elections from the conditions set out in the Nouméa Accord of 1998 favouring indigenous Kanaks, to now include all citizens who have been residents of the territory for the last 10 years. The voting reform was argued to be conducive to and reaffirm a state of democracy, however, pro-independence voices are triggered by the reform’s technical dilution of Kanaky influence over the electoral turn-outs and, ultimately, undermining their aspirations for and means to achieve independence. 

The violent local reaction in response to the voting reform drove Macron into a corner where he was pressured to pause the reform, halting the progress of solidifying French control on the territory, and resorting to vigorous security measures in an attempt to placate the Kanaks and dodge international criticism. 

Macron’s voting reform, the enraged Kanaks, and the tremendous degree of police brutality deployed to counter riots attracted a great deal of international scrutiny focusing on France’s refusal to decolonize as opposed to his argument of reinforcing a state of democracy. International opinion is centring the debate over the “failures of the French government as a neutral administrator of the territory’s decolonisation process” where the UN continues to list New Caledonia as a non-self-governing territory yet to exercise its right to self-determination. This ultimately defies Macron’s expectation of a smooth sailing outcome for voting reform by defusing French legitimacy and disorienting the degree of control that he possesses.

What is changing Macron’s heat level?

Answer: The French expect Macron to succeed in deepening their claim over New Caledonia, and indigenous Kanaks are enraged with Azerbaijan and Russia allegedly fueling the fire. 

The voting reform aimed to grant French nationals residing on the island the right to vote alongside indigenous Kanak as an effort to integrate the territory more fully with France. Many French nationals residing on the island feel that they are owed the right to vote, considering their long-term residence and contribution to the territory. Their argument lies in the fundamentals of the democratic process as their inclusion in the electoral process would ensure their voices are heard and their interests represented.

However, criticism arose countering the claim of the voting reform being an effort towards reaffirming a state of democracy considering the fundamentally undemocratic nature of colonialism. Macron is ultimately pushed and pulled in different directions as he attempts to reestablish a state of democracy to overcompensate for the anti-democratic roots at the inception of this conundrum.

France attempted to counter the attacks by alleging foul play from its Eastern counterparts to have instigated the riots. Azerbaijan is struck with accusations from the French after the emergence of Azerbaijani flags amid protests. Though these accusations are inconclusive and lack evidence beyond speculation, Azerbaijan’s firm stance against the French likely stems from France’s support for Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war. The accusations of foul play were directed towards Russia as well following the brief but nationwide cyberattack on a major internet provider in New Caledonia which was traced to have been deployed from Russian territories. 

With that said, the spokespersons from the Azerbaijani and Russian ministries of foreign affairs have separately but similarly commented on the situation, denying any involvement, warning against the continuous accusations, and urging France to reflect on its colonial policies and “history of committing crimes against humanity” which have led to the havoc in New Caledonia before pointing the finger elsewhere. 

What is driving Macron?

Answer: Macron’s desire to secure a geostrategic location for France and its allies, ultimately countering Chinese control in the Pacific.

Not only does France’s presence in the Pacific reinforce France’s interest in solidifying and distinguishing its position from its Anglo-Saxon allies, but it also counters the possible toppling of Western presence in this valuable geostrategic location. Australia has shown its support for France amidst the civil unrest by allocating a significant budget for the Australia-France Roadmap.

This new agenda for bilateral cooperation is concerned with maintaining French presence in the Indo-Pacific and focused on geostrategic competition as opposed to the civil concerns of the indigenous Kanaky population. Agreements and investments focused on increasing security and fortifying a degree of control have been a primary Western approach in the region, and France has been adamant and critical about being included as a key player in these joined efforts. 

On the other side, speculations have surfaced over a Russia-China alliance as a result of common interest regarding the opportunity to obstruct Western influence in the Indo-Pacific region, despite historic clashes and animosity. Ultimately, Russia’s and China’s interests in New Caledonia are rooted in its nickel reserves and strategic geographic location as a gateway between Australia and the US.

Putin and Xi Jinping are said to “smell weakness and confusion” as they view the distress on the island as an invitation to capitalise on the economic and political opportunities by befriending the Kanaks and making a common enemy of France and its colonial project. Macron sees and understands the pressure posed by the alleged Russia-China alliance joined with the growing anti-French sentiment amongst the New Caledonians, hence the careful treading with the voting reform. 

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Macron’s pause on the voting reform in New Caledonia highlights the interplay of national interests, international power dynamics and stability, as well as the historic fight against colonialism. 

Considering the strategic importance of New Caledonia within the Pacific, the outcome of this policy can shift the balance of power, with implications for global security and economic stability.

As for the Kanaks, their fight for independence is an issue with practical implications on the Kanaks but holds a relevant symbolic significance for people globally–especially those under colonial rule–as it highlights ongoing issues of imperialism and self-determination. Despite the limited media attention on New Caledonia, their fight intensified the scrutiny of French imperialism. It echoes the historical struggles of justice, freedom, and the power that resides within the people in the face of the economic, geostrategic, and political interests of those in power. 

Hence, the way by which New Caledonia is resolved will set a precedent for leaders like Macron on the means and consequences of maintaining colonial rule, while also becoming a footnote in history. New Caledonia is yet another recorded instance of a fight for liberation, adding to the broader narrative of colonial resistance.