The three major environmental challenges faced by Egypt include desertification, extreme temperatures and irregular precipitation patterns, and sea level rise. These challenges have served as a baseline for the work of Yasmine Fouad across various sectors and continue to be a topic of discussion in the development of policies and green projects to improve the adaptive capacity of Egypt.
Extreme Temperatures
On a global scale, extreme temperatures are characterised by fluctuations in daily temperatures, irregular precipitation patterns, and overall climatic changes. This process has been correlated with a rise in greenhouse gas emissions, derived from the use of fossil fuels, which enhance the greenhouse gas effect and the trapping of the sun’s heat in Earth’s atmosphere. Ultimately, rising temperatures change weather patterns and lead to drought, increased death rates, increased energy demands, and decreases in food availability.
In recent years, surface temperatures in Egypt and in the Nile River basin have increased by an average of 0.16°C and 0.4°C, reaching temperatures of between 40°C and 44°C in some governorates. Unfortunately, climate models predict that Egypt’s average annual temperatures may rise by 2.1°C by the middle of the century and 4.4°C by the end of the century. Some areas, such as South Sinai and Aswan, will be especially vulnerable, experiencing warming of approximately 5.15°C and 5.49°C by 2100. Some immediate impacts of these extreme temperatures include heat stress, heat island effects, increased energy consumption, reduced crop yields, and decreased milk and meat production, ultimately threatening Egyptian food supply. In addition, heat-related mortality is expected to increase by 47 times by 2080, and increased particulate matter and heat stress could result in 2,000 to 5,000 more deaths per year and a loss of 20 to 48 billion Egyptian pounds per year. Further impacts of extreme temperatures include a decline in productivity due to heat stress. By 2030, it is expected that heat stress will result in a deprivation of 134,000 work hours per year.
On the other hand, in regard to agriculture and food supply chains, the continuing rise of temperatures will result in the reshaping of the agricultural terrain as the cultivation of wheat and deciduous fruits will be moved to northern regions where cooler temperatures are found. This will directly impact biodiversity but also result in increases in food prices or food shortages. Additionally, due to increasing temperatures, crops will require more water to grow, approximately between 10.9% and 13.2% by 2100, ultimately putting additional pressure on already vulnerable resources.
Extreme temperatures and climate change could also have direct impacts on Egypt’s total annual rainfall, as a decline of approximately 2.9 millimetres annually before the end of the century is estimated. The combination of declining precipitation and rising temperatures will result in increased drought periods. It is estimated that heat waves might be prolonged from 9 to 75 days, and droughts could increase by 15 days by the year 2080.
Some of the impacts of drought include decreased water availability, which leads to reduced dilution capacity and contamination of remaining sources. As surface water sources are dried up, and the remaining water becomes heavily contaminated with animal and human waste, this leads to the proliferation of infectious diseases such as cholera, and skin infections such as scabies and leishmaniasis due to a lack of water for washing. It has also been found that contaminated surface water acts as a breeding ground for mosquitoes, which are directly involved in the transmission of pathogens, as drought results in the loss of competitors and predators. Some pathogens transmitted by mosquitoes include malaria, dengue, Zika, and chikungunya.
Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise describes an increase in the level of the ocean due to the effects of global warming. As temperatures rise, the warming of the oceans is enhanced and manifested in rising levels worldwide. Sea level rise poses a threat to coastal ecosystems and communities and can increase the intensity of weather events, flooding, storm surges, damage to the infrastructure of coastal areas, and saltwater intrusion into soil and groundwater found inland. Due to the arid climate, 95% of Egyptians live on less than 6% of the land and mostly around the Nile. The IPCC has identified the Nile Delta as one of the parts of the world most vulnerable to climate change impacts, including sea-level rise and rising temperatures, putting at risk one of the most populated deltas on the planet, with almost 50 million inhabitants.
Between 1993 and 2010, sea levels in the Mediterranean Sea rose by around 2.6 centimetres per decade. Now, it is estimated that by the end of the century, this rate will rise to 22 centimetres. Egypt’s northern shore has been described as low-lying and at severe risk of flooding, coastal erosion, and land subsidence, 2.4% of which is defined as low-elevation coastal zones (LECZ), which describes vulnerable coastal regions positioned at altitudes of less than 10 metres above sea level. By 2030, sea level rise would threaten 45 million Egyptians with extreme floods, land loss, and property damage, and by 2060, the number of Egyptians residing in LECZ will reach 63.5 million, representing an increase of 249% in sixty years.
In addition to societal impacts, the rising sea levels would be devastating across Nile Delta cities. It is estimated that in the case of a sea level rise of 0.5 metres, there would be property loss and damage with a value of United States Dollar (USD) 3 billion. Additionally, the sea level rise would result in the loss of beach land with a value of USD 2 billion. Currently, coastal cities contain half of Egypt’s industrial sector, 40% of the agriculture, and just Alexandria’s shoreline is responsible for 13.3% of Egypt’s fish production. Due to the sea level rise, a minimum loss of 30% of food production in the Nile Delta Region is estimated, signifying a disruption in national food supply chains and food insecurity.
In addition, sea level rise, coupled with the removal of natural buffer zones and the development of manmade infrastructures, has left the coastline vulnerable to erosion, which has been found to increase the salinity of the coast. For example, in the Rosetta coast, the salinity has risen from under 27% in 1964 to 29% in 2015. As a result, this intrusion of saltwater has led to the deterioration of cultivated land by making it less fertile and the degradation of groundwater. Certain crops have been identified as particularly threatened, such as mangoes, olives, and tomatoes, as well as alfalfa, pushing farmers to buy dry livestock forage. To cope with the negative effects on agricultural production, farmers must use more fertilisers and pesticides. This increases their production costs and further pollutes the land.
Desertification
According to the UNCCD, desertification is described as land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas, a process in which soil productivity is lost as human activities and climatic variations strip the land of the topsoil, which takes centuries to recover. Some human activities responsible for this environmental challenge include deforestation, thinning of vegetative cover, overcultivation, and poor irrigation practices.
Major pressures on land resources and causes of desertification in Egypt include population growth and urbanisation, waterlogging, soil salinity, soil fertility degradation, and soil erosion. Population growth causes pressure on limited land and water resources. Waterlogging causes rapid deterioration and negative effects on land quality. Soil fertility and land degradation are due to severe exploitation from intensive agriculture. Soil erosion is a result of intense wind erosion, which best explains the vulnerability of sand dunes, as they are highly vulnerable to wind erosion and severely jeopardise agricultural development and human development.
Desertification has weighed down the agricultural sector of Egypt, as it has been reported that it claims 3.5 feddans an hour in Egypt. Due to these impacts of the worsened climate crisis, farmers have been forced to ration their cultivation and can only plant once a year instead of seasonally. In Egypt, the agricultural sector accounts for one fifth of all jobs, but desertification has led to the migration of farmers due to a lack of resources for profitable agriculture.
Additionally, as one of the most populous countries in the Middle East and North Africa, the productivity of Egypt’s agricultural land is important for food security, nutrition, and food access. As a result of the decrease in agricultural land, there has been an increased dependence on international supply chains, which present risks to food security, economic growth, and access for low-income communities. In addition, desertification in the Nile Delta has also caused repercussions on Egypt’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, agricultural output, socio-political stability, poverty, and inequality.
Desertification in Egypt is typically assessed across four agro-ecological zones. Across the Nile Valley and Delta, the main desertification problems of soil salinity, pollution, urbanisation, and sand encroachment have led to loss of fertile farmland and lower crop yields. In the Northern Coast and Sinai, desertification problems of pasture degradation, intense grain cultivation, water and wind erosion, have led to overall reduced meat, milk, and wool production. In the Eastern Desert and Sinai, desertification problems of soil salinity, erosion, and overuse of vegetation have led to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem degradation. Finally, in the Western Desert and Oases, desertification problems of groundwater depletion, salinity, sand encroachment, and wildlife loss have led to reduced productivity, water deterioration, and habitat destruction.
These environmental challenges have proven to be of importance for various reasons. To begin, extreme temperatures have motivated Fouad on a personal and strategic level as Egypt depends on the Nile for 97% of its water supply, and the rise of temperatures produces high evapotranspiration, which puts additional pressure on an already vulnerable resource. In addition, these extreme temperatures result in droughts, crop failure, wildfires, and soil moisture loss. All of which combined can trap vulnerable populations into poverty and make them more vulnerable to future challenges.
It has also been emphasised that droughts cost the global economy a minimum of USD 300 billion a year and result in many impacts such as an increase in food prices, disruption of transport, migration pressures, and reduced hydropower. Fouad has described droughts as an economic risk that requires management and adequate development of mitigation strategies. In her professional opinion, this refers to the alignment of public finance, development banks, climate funds, and private capital.
Next, as one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change due to sea level rise and rising temperatures, the Nile Delta is of key concern as sea level rise could cause significant property loss and damage, disruption of national food supply chains, and decreased soil fertility. It is a clear priority for Egypt and Yasmine Fouad as it brings catastrophic economic outcomes, especially for fishermen, farmers, and residents in coastal areas. Concerning responses to sea level rise include violence and protests as a result of financial concerns, external migration in the governorates of Damietta and Kafr El-Sheikh, internal migration in the governorates of Beheira and Dakahlia, and the need to search for alternative economic opportunities.
Fouad has highlighted the possible scenarios that the Nile Delta will face with rising sea levels. The first focuses on complete submersion of the Delta while the other focuses on the use of preventative measures such as coastal protection and early warning systems. These concerns have led Fouad to push for major coastal adaptation projects, such as the development of seawalls to protect cities in the Nile Delta. In addition, Fouad has also emphasised the use of strategic urban expansion, such as the construction of 16 new cities outside the Delta region for long-term strategies.
Finally, desertification is of direct importance as it is linked to her current role as Executive Secretary, where she focuses on land restoration, drought resilience, ecosystem recovery, climate change, and biodiversity. Fouad has warned that climate change and desertification pose critical threats to Africa’s security and stability, urging coordinated regional action and increased investment in sustainable environmental and climate solutions. Fouad has described this degradation as a global security risk as it directly impacts food security, water security, and economic stability. Making it necessary to link the security of food, energy, and water to the development of a climate-resilient agenda.
Fouad has described that “Land is our most ancient inheritance. To protect it is to safeguard life itself”. To her, land holds a tie with ancestors, ensures harvests of future generations, and ties the families of the nation together. It is also an important subject as Fouad sees it as an opportunity for the Arab region to lead global sustainability efforts and transform deserts into improved, lush landscapes. Additionally, desertification poses various economic risks, such as Africa losing 3 million hectares of forest each year, resulting in a 3% reduction in its GDP due to soil and nutrient depletion. With the inevitable decline in land productivity, Africa has spent over USD 43 billion annually on food imports. Meanwhile, farmers face growing profit losses due to declining soil fertility. The widening crop yield gap caused by soil degradation is estimated to cost the continent up to USD 68 billion in losses each year.
IE x RAIA Summer Research Programme:
This article is an excerpt from a report on Yasmine Fouad produced as part of a RAIA research programme on climate leaders. For a full picture of Fouad’s climate leadership, including the sources, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs and School of Science and Technology.
Authors: Lucía Sobrado Louzao, Alicia Hidalgo Gonzalez & Daniela Bermudez Bolivar
Editor: Francia Morales
Project Lead: Dario Hasenstab
