This section analyses the main environmental challenges that the European Union is facing, in relation to Ursula von der Leyen’s climate leadership. The European Environment Agency (EEA) in the European Climate Risk Assessment 2024 identifies 36 major climate risks, affecting ecosystems, food, health, infrastructure, economy and finance. These risks directly impact European citizens, economies and ecosystems.

This section will focus on three main climate challenges that are central to von der Leyen’s climate leadership: heat stress, intensified extreme weather events, and the degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity. 

The rising threat of heat stress

The first and most severe climatic challenge the EU is facing is heat stress. Specifically, heat stress refers to the phenomenon in which the human body is no longer able to cool itself sufficiently, leading to heat cramps, exhaustion, heatstrokes, and the worsening of respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. Compounding this, Europe is warming faster than any other continent. The year 2024 set a record as the hottest year Europe has ever experienced. That summer’s extreme heat caused an estimated 62,700 excess deaths. Moreover, cities are hit hardest by heat stress due to the urban heat island effect, where asphalt and buildings absorb heat during the day and release it at night, keeping temperatures elevated. The urban heat island effect creates a dangerous environment during heatwaves that can last for days or even weeks. Although southern Europe is the hottest region in the EU, northern countries are also increasingly experiencing record breaking temperatures.

The consequences of high temperatures are felt across different sectors. As temperatures rise, mortality rates increase, healthcare systems are under pressure and labour productivity declines since outdoor work becomes difficult in extreme heat. Without action taken, Europe’s healthcare systems could face climate-related costs of €400 billion every year. Meanwhile, extreme heat remains the deadliest climate threat Europe faces, responsible for 86-91% of all climate-related deaths between 1980 and 2020. 

The first weeks of summer 2026 have already brought record breaking temperatures in Europe. For example, France recorded its hottest day since 1947, with temperatures reaching 44.3°C in the town of Pissos on 23 June and 40.9°C in Paris the following day. With 90% of the French population exposed to extreme heat, some residents sought to cool off in unauthorised waters. As a result, 55 people died, the majority of whom were young people. By 28 June, France had recorded approximately 1,000 excess deaths, with around 85% among those aged 65 or older, who are significantly vulnerable to extreme heat. These deaths show that for von der Leyen climate policy is a matter of life and death.

The 2026 heatwave is not just an isolated event. Heatwaves have become progressively more deadly over time. In the 1990s, heatwaves across Europe caused approximately 65 deaths per million per year. By 2022 that rate had risen to 114 deaths per million across the general population. Between 2000 and 2020, deaths caused by heat stress increased in 94% of European regions, with the elderly suffering the most. 

The human costs of heat extend beyond mortality into the workplace, where rising temperatures are undermining productivity and economic output. During high temperatures, workers in outdoor sectors such as agriculture and construction are not able to perform at the same level, resulting in significant economic losses. Between 2016 and 2019, workers in these sectors lost an average of 16 hours per worker per year relative to 1965-1994, with the largest losses concentrated in southern Europe. When multiplied across the millions of Europeans working in outdoor sectors, the total productivity loss is considerable. 

A field study of grape pickers in Cyprus found that higher summer temperatures correlated with a labour loss of up to 27%. By the end of the century southern Europe could see a productivity drop of 10-15%, while northern regions could experience declines of 2-4%. Heat stress is a real economic damage that compounds over time. By 2030, annual productivity losses due to heat stress in the EU are projected to reach at least €17 billion. 

Over the past decades, the public has witnessed and felt these severe costs. From 1980 to 2023, the total cumulative economic losses from climate-related events reached €738 billion in the EU. Heat stress alone accounted for €50-80 billion during the major heatwaves. Every 10 years of delay makes fighting climate change 25-30% more expensive globally. For the EU, postponing emissions cuts in key sectors until 2035 could increase economic losses by 40-50%. This means that Ursula von der Leyen’s approach reframes climate action as an investment, understanding that the longer Europe waits, the more it pays, not just in euros but in lives too. 

Extreme weather events

Equally devastating as heat stress are extreme weather events. An extreme weather event is a severe weather phenomenon that falls outside the normal range of conditions expected for a specific region and time of year. Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. There is a geographic divide in Europe in this regard, where northern and western regions are increasingly affected by floods and southern Europe faces more frequent and severe droughts. These events often compound each other in dangerous cycles: drought parches soil, making it unable to absorb heavy rain, which then triggers flash floods. Heat and drought conditions simultaneously favour the outbreak and spread of wildfires. This compounding effect means that one disaster often worsens the next. Therefore addressing one type of event in isolation is insufficient. 

The impacts of the extreme weather events across the EU are creating economic, social and health issues that affect millions of citizens. Flooding has emerged as one of the most destructive threats, specifically in northern and western Europe, where heavy precipitation has increased in recent years. The floods of July 2021 are a devastating example of these types of incidents. More than 240 people lost their lives across affected regions including Germany, Belgium, Romania, Austria, the Netherlands and Switzerland. In Germany and Belgium alone, floods caused approximately €44 billion in economic damage and claimed 200 lives. 

A more recent example is in the Valencia region of Spain, which was hit by the phenomenon Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos (DANA) in October 2024. DANA is a phenomenon in which a mass of cold air becomes trapped above the warm Mediterranean waters, causing the warm air below to rise rapidly and form dense rain clouds that can release torrential rain over the same area for hours. The storm dropped a year’s worth of rain in a few hours, resulting in approximately 230 deaths and the displacement of 15,000 residents. Material damage was estimated at €17.8 billion, with an additional €12 billion required for restoration. This equalled 0.65% of Spain’s GDP. Furthermore, provincial employment fell by approximately 1.4% and national employment by 0.2%. Scientific analysis affirmed that human induced climate change amplified the intensity and spatial extent of rainfall. The idea is confirmed by a study led by the Spanish National Research Council that concluded that the rainfall on 29 October 2024 was up to 20% higher than it would have normally been without the changes produced by global warming.

Another category of destructive extreme weather events is drought. A drought is a period of dry weather that reduces water availability and negatively affects agriculture, energy production and water supply. The 2022 drought affected more than a third of Europe, with Italy’s agricultural sector losing approximately €9 billion. Across the continent, the same drought caused €40 billion in economic losses and drove up food prices. The European Climate Risk Assessment confirms what these numbers imply, that heat and droughts negatively affect European crop production, threatening food security. These costs reveal that a single dry season can destabilise regional economies and strain household budgets. 

Furthermore, the summer of 2026 brought devastation on an even larger scale. Extreme heat destroyed millions of tonnes of crops, delivering an economic shock to EU and UK farmers. Nine million tonnes of crops across Europe were destroyed, making it, by July 2026, the smallest harvest since 2018. The lost production was valued at €2 billion. EU members such as France lost 3.4 million tonnes of maize worth €891 million, while Hungary lost 2.4 million tonnes and Spain 1.4 million tonnes. These losses represent two weeks of total EU agricultural subsidies. At the time of writing of this report, halfway through the 2026 summer, extreme weather events have become a recurring reality for EU citizens.

The same conditions that affect crops also create a favourable environment for a more violent event. Droughts and heat facilitate wildfires that release massive amounts of CO₂, turning forests into carbon sources. In 2023 Greece lost around 175,000 hectares to wildfires. The wildfires destroy homes and infrastructure while releasing CO₂. The resulting smoke causes respiratory illnesses among the affected population. 

By 2026, the devastation had reached unprecedented levels. In late July, wildfires raging across France and Spain forced more than 250,000 people to evacuate. In France, 197,000 people fled the Gironde and Landes regions, near Bordeaux. The country deployed 1,500 military personnel in an unprecedented response to support firefighters. In Spain, 70,000 people were evacuated west of Madrid, where the fire was described as the worst fire in the history of the region and beyond the capacity of firefighters to contain. The Spanish government declared a national emergency, representing the first time the country has ever done so over a wildfire. 

The growing scale of extreme weather events is highlighted by the financial exhaustion of the EU Solidarity Fund in 2021, 2022 and 2023. The EU Solidarity Fund helps member states to recover from natural disasters. It is clear that these events are persistent since institutional mechanisms are drained year after year. 

However, the financial consequences have extended beyond public mechanisms. The private sector felt the significant costs as well, while public perception has shifted in response to direct exposure to extreme weather events. Insurers have faced record payouts in the past years. The agricultural industry, facing the continued destruction of harvests, is pressing for action. These climate-related losses are forcing the private sector to confront risks that traditional business models were not designed to handle. At the same time, the frequency and intensity of these extreme events has raised public concern and led to demands for stronger climate action. Citizens across Europe are directly experiencing the impacts. A survey of over 27,000 Europeans found that 80% of respondents were affected by at least one climate-related impact in the past five years, with the highest rates reported in southern and central-eastern Europe. This level of direct exposure made these events impossible to ignore for von der Leyen. 

Threats to Ecosystems and Biodiversity

While the immediate impacts of extreme weather events are measured in human and economic losses, a slower but equally destructive crisis is the devastation of ecosystems and biodiversity. Ecosystems sustain human life and economic activity. Forests purify the air, wetlands filter the water and pollinators enable the production of the fruits, vegetables and nuts. These are severely deteriorating, having consequences that reach beyond the natural world. 

Forests cover approximately 35% of EU land and are increasingly threatened by climate change. Climate change has increased disturbances such as storms and pest outbreaks, compounded by human pressures including logging and land-use change. These factors reduce forest resilience and carbon sink capacity, meaning that forests absorb less CO₂ than they used to. When forests lose their capacity to absorb carbon, they no longer slow the accumulation of GHG in the atmosphere. In Czechia, bark beetle damage to Norway spruce increased tenfold between 2017 and 2019. Czechia’s Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry sector became a net carbon source. In Germany, tree mortality increased sevenfold between 2018 and 2020, costing the forestry sector an estimated €17.8 billion. The situations in Czechia and Germany show that Europe’s forests are reaching a tipping point where natural regeneration will no longer be fast enough to outpace losses. 

Forests are not the only ecosystems under threat. Wetlands and peatlands are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe, facing degradation from both human activities and climate change. Many wetlands are degraded from unsustainable land use and water management, with climate change further aggravating the situation. Rising temperatures increase evaporation and drying, making peatlands more vulnerable to wildfires and accelerating the release of stored carbon. Unlike forests, which can be replanted, peatlands take thousands of years to form, making their loss irreversible on human timescales. The degradation of wetlands also reduces the capacity to filter water and mitigate floods, compounding the risks to human communities. 

The crisis is not happening only on land. Europe’s marine and coastal ecosystems are facing urgent risks on their own. Marine ecosystems regulate the climate by absorbing CO₂ and provide food for millions of people. Over 40% of the EU population lives in coastal areas, making their livelihoods directly dependent on the health of these ecosystems. Marine heatwaves have caused mass mortality of corals, fish and other marine life. The concentration of population and economic activity along Europe’s coasts creates a close relationship between marine health and human welfare. Marine heatwaves create permanent ecological changes, declining fish stocks, destabilising the food supply chain, eroding economic stability for coastal communities. Furthermore, as ocean temperatures continue to rise, this will result in a lasting weakening of one of the planet’s primary climate regulation mechanisms. 

The degradation of forests, wetlands and marine ecosystems is part of a broader collapse of biodiversity. The impact of biodiversity loss is profound. Its loss threatens food security through the decline of pollinators. Without them, crop yield for fruits, vegetables and nuts would fall significantly, which would lead to food shortages and higher prices. Soil health has deteriorated across Europe due to erosion, loss of organic matter and contamination. 

The degradation of ecosystems increases flood risk by removing natural buffers to absorb excess water. Biodiversity loss is dangerous because of the compounding effect of multiple failures occurring simultaneously. For example, the decline of pollinators coincides with soil degradation, which reduces the nutrient content of crops, which further limits agricultural productivity. As a result the European food supply is deeply affected. Flood protection follows the same logic. Wetlands, forests, healthy soils form a network of natural defences that absorb rainfall, slow runoff and reduce flood flows. By degrading these defences, a single heavy rainfall event that would have been absorbed by healthy ecosystems can now overwhelm communities, causing severe costs.

Beyond politics and economics, Ursula von der Leyen’s commitment to climate action carries a personal dimension. As a mother of seven children, von der Leyen framed climate action as a maternal obligation, ‘’we owe it to our children’’. This maternal duty makes her responsible to save the planet where her children will live. The statement also reflects her Lutheran Christian background, which emphasises caring for God’s creation. Her background of growing up in a family that valued European unity has shaped her desire to protect the continent she calls home. This reflects her personal identity, a woman, a mother, a European, and resonates with voters who share those values.

IE x RAIA Summer Research Programme: Ursula von der Leyen Profile

This article is an excerpt from a report on Ursula von der Leyen produced as part of a RAIA research programme on climate leaders. For a full picture of von der Leyen’s climate leadership, including the sources, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs and School of Science and Technology.

Authors: Daria Holtea, Bianca Albu & Ariadna Alvarenga

Editor: Dario Hasenstab

Project Lead: Dario Hasenstab