Name? Abiy Ahmed
Westphalian identity? Ethiopian
Age? 50
Why is he in the news? On 20 September, seven armed groups announced an alliance to overthrow Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and install a transitional government, uniting former enemies including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano and the Oromo Liberation Army. Days later, Tigrayan forces seized Mekelle airport, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights.
Why do we care? Our last Daily on Abiy Ahmed covered the November 2022 Pretoria agreement, which ended a war the African Union estimates killed around 600,000 people. That peace was never a settlement but a prolonged ceasefire. Issues such as disarmament and the TPLF’s legal status were left unresolved, and in July 2026 the TPLF declared the deal effectively dead. Especially important here is that the main grievance of the TPLF was never addressed. Until Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018, the TPLF dominated Ethiopia for 27 years before it was pushed to the margins.
Why should you care? The Horn of Africa is becoming one of the world’s most combustible corners. Sudan’s civil war continues, Ethiopia is back to fighting rebellions, and across the Red Sea the Houthis are advancing in Yemen. The world is currently deteriorating in front of our eyes.
Who else cares? Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki. His troops fought alongside Abiy Ahmed against the TPLF in 2020-2022 and were accused of atrocities. His leverage is location: Eritrea’s Red Sea coast faces the Bab el-Mandeb, and Washington has just lifted sanctions on Eritrea to advance its Red Sea interests. The same great-power usefulness that has long shielded Afwerki from scrutiny over Tigray.
Any further comments? The 2020-2022 war was among the century’s worst humanitarian disasters; two million people remain displaced. A 2025 report indicated that nearly half (49.3%) of deaths in Tigray are caused by starvation, that was during peacetime, further conflict will only worsen the already bad situation.
