There are a multitude of environmental challenges that the world faces today, such as fossil fuel dependence, global warming and its negative effect on agriculture, and finally the climate crisis in Europe. These are all intertwined with the work of the IEA. The organisation’s overarching goal is ensuring energy security, which has historically been characterised by fossil fuels. In recent years, the need to transition global energy systems away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy has become a priority for the IEA. Fossil fuel dependence affects countries and individuals through its volatile nature, and it often produces price shocks which lead to it sometimes being a highly unstable source of energy. Fossil fuels are also a main contributor of climate change, which not only increases global temperatures, but also makes extreme weather events more frequent. In turn, this negatively affects food productivity, arguably one of the most important global systems. Climate change also affects the world disproportionately, Europe seeing the most effects. This leads to both significant economic and productivity losses, having further effects on the continent.
In the following section the topics of dependence on fossil fuels, global warming and food security, and Europe’s climate crisis will be explored.
Dependence on Fossil Fuels
This part of the report outlines the dependence on fossil fuels, as well as their climatic impact. Fossil fuels include oil, coal and natural gas, and are widely used all over the world. They are non-renewable energy sources which are either burned for electricity, or refined and used as energy for heating or transportation. Currently, close to 80% of all energy world-wide comes from non-renewable energy sources, showing a clear dependence.
This dependence on fossil fuels has many implications which have made the IEA committed to transitioning the global energy sector towards renewable energy sources like solar and wind, and away from fossil fuels.
Firstly, fossil fuels have a tremendous impact on climate change. Through their extraction and use, they contribute to approximately 68% of greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which are a major driver of climate change. In turn, climate change has a multitude of negative effects such as increased global temperature, more frequent and severe extreme weather events, and decreased food security. To combat these challenges associated with climate change, the use of fossil fuels needs to be reduced.
Carbon dioxide emissions from the global energy sector amounted to 38 gigatonnes in 2024. To reach the net zero goal by 2050 global emissions have to decrease by 55% by 2035. This means a decrease of approximately 20 gigatonnes between 2024 and 2035. Fossil fuels emissions reached a global all-time high in 2025, showing that the world is currently not on track to reaching the net zero target. The following image visualises the trajectory of emissions at their current rate and the resulting impact on increased temperatures.
If emissions continue at the same rate as now, the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping temperatures below +1.5°C (compared to pre-industrial levels) will already be surpassed before 2040, and the absolute increase of +2°C before 2060. If emissions are not reduced, climate change will continue to put severe pressure on several vital systems and continue to disrupt weather patterns.
Furthermore, dependence on fossil fuels is not only a climate risk, but also an economic one. While non-renewable energy currently remains an important player in modern economies, a heavy dependence can cause major vulnerabilities for societies and countries. Additionally, the energy market remains volatile through factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions.
A geopolitical event with tremendous impact on the global energy systems was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It shows how geopolitical events can be a determining factor for energy prices. Within two weeks of the initial invasion, the prices for different non-renewable energy sources increased as follows: coal 130%, oil 40%, gas 180%. In turn, these increases put severe pressure on countries both within, and outside of Europe. The war and the sanctions against Russia that followed left Europe in a vulnerable state to find new gas and crude oil suppliers.
Events of this nature commonly result in governments and individual actors all over the world reevaluating their energy use to be less susceptible to the volatility of fossil fuels. These economic implications together with fossil fuels’ negative impact on the climate have sparked debate about the longevity of fossil fuels, or the lack thereof. It is estimated that fossil fuels will only last for roughly 50-100 more years, which urgently makes actors rethink their dependence on fossil fuels, as well as the importance of the transition to other energy sources.
Global Warming and Food Security
Climate change is one of the biggest environmental challenges today. Its consequences include increased temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and storms. In turn, these severely affect a multitude of systems, including agriculture which will be the focus of this section of the paper.
It is important to first define climate change. Climate change is usually correctly referred to as anthropogenic climate change, which in turn refers to the long-term increase in Earth’s temperature due to human activities. The terms climate change and anthropogenic climate change are used interchangeably in this paper, but both refer to climate change as a result of human activities.
Firstly, the main drivers of climate change are fossil fuels, which represent 68% of greenhouse gas emissions. In turn, these account for roughly 90% of the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions. The problem with the emission of these gases is that they trap heat in the atmosphere, which over time increases the average temperature on Earth. This is of growing importance as Earth’s temperature is currently increasing at a rate faster than any other measured point in history. Subsequently, this leads to a multitude of consequences such as changes in weather patterns and an increased amount of natural disasters.
One of the most vulnerable systems to climate change is that of food. The topic of food security is becoming increasingly relevant, and the World Bank Group describes this term as reliable access and utilisation of nutritious food for all people on the planet. In 2018, over 820 million people suffered from malnutrition, representing almost 11% of the global population. Agriculture is severely affected by the increasing temperatures, and droughts, floods, and storms all decrease crop productivity. A Stanford University study explains that for every increase of one degree celsius in the average global temperature, agricultural abilities to produce food decreases by 4,4% of the daily food consumption.
On top of that, it is estimated that cereal prices will increase by 29% by 2050. Increasing prices for food is becoming more relevant as about 1.1 billion people currently live in acute poverty, and 32% of the global population cannot afford a healthy diet. However, the negative effects of increasing food prices is not isolated to those in acute poverty. These price increases are reflected globally on markets, and therefore affect everyone.
Furthermore, climate change also negatively impacts the ocean. Since pre-industrial times, the pH of the ocean has decreased by 0.1 pH units. This seemingly small change has resulted in an almost 30% increase in acidity, over roughly 200 years. The fisheries and aquaculture sector is one that supports many households globally, and the roughly 62 million people in these industries are not the only ones affected. The increasing demand for seafood is facing difficulty of being met as the supply productivity is decreasing due to climate change.
As food production declines and global demand continues to rise, food prices become increasingly volatile and food insecurity starts affecting more and more people, especially those in low-income countries. Increasing food prices, along with natural disasters and health effects, are according to the World Bank Group the driving force behind the estimation that up to 132 million people will have fallen into poverty caused by climate change before 2030. This shows how important stability in the agriculture sector is, and how this can only fully be achieved by reducing climate change.
Europe’s Climate Crisis
Europe is seeing the effects of climate change more than any other continent, warming approximately twice as fast as the global average. Since the pre-industrial period Europe has seen an increase of nearly 2.5°C. As a result, extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods have become more frequent. Extreme weather events have a significant impact on Europe on an environmental, social, and economic level. Since around three-quarters of IEA member countries are located in Europe, the climate crisis affecting this geographical area has become of increasing importance to the IEA.
First of all, when it comes to the environmental challenges, like heatwaves, that European nations are experiencing, there has been a noticeable impact on labour productivity and safety. This highlights the human cost of climate change. Furthermore, deaths related to extreme heat amount to approximately 489 000 annually. Populations around the world are not affected equally by these heatwaves. Indeed, Asia represents the largest part with 45% of these deaths. Europe also sees these consequences greatly, as 36% of the heat-related deaths occur on this continent.
An example of deaths related to increased temperatures can be seen in France, as the effects of the 2026 heatwave in Europe already has evident effects on the country. The heatwaves have resulted in the national average death rate per day increasing with upwards of 40% from the 900-1000 average seen in April and May, before the heatwaves started. In late June the deaths reached over 1400 per day, but the French National Public Health Agency also highlighted that the heat related deaths are mostly connected to people over the age of 65.
As described above, environmental challenges also have economic effects. The European Union has since the 1980s experienced losses related to extreme weather events totalling over 800 billion euros. In the years between 2021 and 2024 alone, the Union saw losses amounting to roughly 45-50 billion euros annually. The last five years have also been the most costly in history, showing a clear connection between the increasing temperatures and productivity losses.
Energy systems are also greatly affected by extreme weather. Increasing temperatures in combination with droughts limit fresh water availability which is crucial for cooling power plants. These conditions also decrease hydropower generation, which is a leading form of renewable energy producing roughly 16% of the global power supply. This shows that climate change affects all systems, including the ones built to alleviate it.
Seeing as the climate crisis has tremendous direct effects on countries’ economy, labour productivity, and welfare, it is of the utmost importance for Fatih Birol and the IEA to aid the clean energy transition in an attempt to curb the impact of climate change. Using renewable energy increasingly not only reduces emissions but in turn also aids the protection of societies from the impacts of climate change.
IE x RAIA Summer Research Programme:
This article is an excerpt from a report on Fatih Birol produced as part of a RAIA research programme on climate leaders. For a full picture of Birol’s climate leadership, including the sources, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs and School of Science and Technology.
Authors: Sofia Hession, Alexandra Björkman & Ariadna Alvarenga
Editor: Roxane de Bergevin
Project Lead: Dario Hasenstab
