• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan placed the Diyanet, Türkiye’s Presidency of Religious Affairs, under direct presidential control in 2018 and has since expanded it to 106 countries as a foreign policy tool. 
• Germany agreed with Türkiye in 2023 to train 100 imams a year locally, while France ended its imam agreement in 2024, affecting around 150 Turkish imams. 
• The Diyanet reached around 1.9 million people between 2020 and 2024 and boosted diaspora support for the AKP, but has won Türkiye little leverage over host governments.

Why is Erdoğan MILD?

Answer: Erdoğan has built the Diyanet into a global network under his direct control, but its reach has delivered diaspora votes rather than leverage over host governments.

In September 2026, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government announced a 2027 budget of 229.1 billion lira for the Diyanet, Türkiye’s Presidency of Religious Affairs, which operates in more than 100 countries. 

Following the 2016 coup attempt, a 2017 referendum replaced Türkiye’s parliamentary system with an executive presidency, which took effect in 2018. Founded in 1924 to administer mosques and religious affairs, the Diyanet was then attached directly to the presidency, giving Erdoğan greater control over its role as a foreign policy instrument.

Since then, the Diyanet’s presence abroad has grown from 36 countries in 2018 to 106 countries in 2022. According to the Diyanet’s own figures, it reached around 1.9 million people abroad between 2020 and 2024, through educational, cultural, social and charitable religious services. 

The network’s growth shows greater institutional capacity, but it has not yet translated into diplomatic leverage over host states, leaving Erdoğan MILD.

What is changing Erdoğan’s heat level?

Answer: Germany and France have restricted Turkish-trained imams, but Erdoğan has adapted his strategy rather than abandoned it.

In December 2023, Germany announced it would gradually stop accepting foreign-trained imams and agreed with Türkiye to train 100 imams a year locally, through the Turkish-Islamic Union for Religious Affairs (DITIB) and Islamkolleg Deutschland. Since DITIB is a German organisation that runs mosques under the Diyanet’s oversight, the agreement relocates Turkish influence rather than removing it. 

France went further. In February 2020, President Emmanuel Macron announced the end of agreements allowing Türkiye, Algeria and Morocco to send imams, to reduce “foreign influence” on Islam in France. The ban took  effect in January 2024 and covered around 150 Turkish imams. The Diyanet responded by training imams locally. Erdoğan’s influence shifted from direct to indirect, channelled through local institutions, but the wider network remained intact, holding him MILD.

What is driving Erdoğan?

Answer: Erdoğan uses the Diyanet to pursue regional influence and mobilise diaspora voters under tighter presidential control.

Analyst Soner Çağaptay of the Washington Institute argues that Erdoğan seeks to position Türkiye’s as a regional power in the Middle East, independent of the West. The Diyanet organised special prayers for Gaza in July 2025, aligning religious diplomacy with Türkiye’s foreign policy.

Erdoğan also aims to mobilise Turkish voters abroad. In June 2022, the Diyanet reportedly called a meeting with imams from abroad to canvass diaspora voters for the 2023 elections. A study of all seven elections open to Turks abroad between 2014 and 2023 found that the AKP’s vote share among emigrants was close to 10% higher where Diyanet officials were present, and 18.6% higher in host countries that restrict dual citizenship. 

By tying the Diyanet’s work to the agendas of the state and the AKP, Erdoğan has extended the government’s influence into the religious sphere. Much of the Diyanet’s overseas activity is funded through the Türkiye Diyanet Foundation (TDV), a government-controlled body legally separate from the Diyanet. This structure allows Erdoğan to maintain operational control while reducing exposure to European regulation, which also makes total spending harder to trace.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: The Diyanet’s expansion is likely to strengthen Turkish religious influence where host states are weakest, especially in the Balkans.

The announced budget for the Diyanet in 2027 is 229.1 billion lira, an increase of 31.4% compared to 2026, marking continued growth in the short term. Budgetary growth allows institutional growth, with new attaché posts planned in Boston, Miami, Kandahar, and Turkistan (Kazakhstan), aligning with the Diyanet’s 2028 target of reaching 11.9 million people abroad.

In Western Europe, states with the capacity to train their own imams, such as Germany and France, can contain the Diyanet’s role. In the Balkans, where it invokes a shared Ottoman heritage and funds local religious institutions, it faces fewer limits.

The larger 2027 budget is likely to buy influence mainly where local religious institutions are weak or dependent on foreign funding, and far less in states able to train their own clergy.