• In 2021, Fatih Birol’s International Energy Agency published Net Zero By 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, a roadmap with over 400 milestones for the global energy sector. 
• Broad international support has made the roadmap a benchmark, but fossil fuel producers and the United States are pushing back. 
• With clean energy investment rising but emissions still at record highs, Birol can set the targets but cannot enforce them.

Why is Birol HOT?

Answer: Birol is HOT because his Net Zero By 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector quickly became the global reference point for the energy transition.

Fatih Birol is a Turkish energy economist with more than four decades of experience analysing global energy markets and shaping international energy policy. He has been a part of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for over 30 years and has served as the Executive Director of the IEA since 2015.

In 2021, the IEA published Net Zero By 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. At its core, it aims to reduce emissions and aid the Paris Agreement’s goal to cap the global temperature increase to a maximum of 1.5°C, all by transitioning the current energy systems away from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

The roadmap outlines over 400 milestones, which make it easier for countries that adopt the roadmap to track progress. Under Birol’s leadership, the roadmap has made significant progress on many of the milestones. Firstly, the target of Solar PV reaching 630 gigawatts by 2030 is going to be achieved if all of the already announced projects are executed. Furthermore, manufacturing capacities for electric vehicle batteries are already “sufficient to meet projected demand in 2030” (IEA). Electric car sales, another goal, have increased by 240% since 2020, showing progress towards lower emissions from the transportation sector.

What is changing Birol’s heat level? 

Answer: While the roadmap has shaped energy policy around the world, powerful actors including major fossil fuel producers and the US government continue to challenge its implementation.

The roadmap has received strong support from member and association countries with it becoming “an important benchmark for policy makers, industry, the financial sector and civil society”. G7 leaders officially recognised the IEA’s “clear roadmap” for achieving global net zero in their joint communiqué, demonstrating early support from many of the world’s largest advanced economies. 

Furthermore, the 2023 update of the roadmap informed the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, and at COP28, nearly 200 countries agreed that global energy emissions should reach net zero by 2050. The final COP28 agreement also adopted two of the roadmap’s key recommendations: tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030. This demonstrated that the roadmap influenced the direction of international climate policy. 

Despite this support, the roadmap has faced significant resistance from powerful veto players. When it was initially launched in 2021, the roadmap faced strong opposition from major fossil fuel producers, particularly OPEC members. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, dismissed the roadmap, describing it as a “La La Land” scenario. Similarly, Russian Deputy Alexander Novak warned that following the roadmap would cause oil prices to spike and start costing USD 200 per barrel. Qatar’s Energy Minister, Saad Sherida Al Kaabi, also criticized the IEA, describing the transition “euphoria” as dangerous. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia reaffirmed their commitment to continue expanding their oil and gas production, directly rejecting the IEA’s recommendation to halt new fossil fuel projects. 

More recently, in February 2026, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright gave the IEA a one-year ultimatum to drop its net zero agenda or it would risk losing US membership. This shows direct resistance one of the agency’s most important members. The US is a major funder, responsible for 14% of the IEA’s budget. This makes any threat of withdrawal a serious political and financial risk. 

When Birol was asked about these criticisms in interviews, he instead in the IEA, pointing out how countries such as Colombia, Brazil, Vietnam and India are seeking to join the agency. However, Wright clarified that the US does not want to leave the agency as it would create space for China to gain influence inside the agency. This suggests that the US is using its leverage to push for institutional reform and a refocus on energy security, rather than to trigger an immediate withdrawal.

Despite this pressure, 39 out of the IEA’s 45 member and association countries have adopted a net zero commitment either in law, a policy document or through an official pledge.

What is driving Birol?

Answer: Birol is driven by the ambition to set measurable targets for the clean energy transition that make the IEA as an indispensable authority.

The roadmap demonstrates clear alignment with Birol’s governance and personal goals. He has translated climate objectives into a more comprehensive framework. It reflects Birol’s technocratic approach of  translating political ambition into measurable, sector-by-sector engineering problems, as shown by breaking the broad objective of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 into more than 400 detailed, sector-specific milestones. For Birol, this level of detail is not an end in itself, but rather a means of positioning the IEA as an institution that is credible for governments and investors.

Yet the roadmap has clear limits. He has continued to press governments on the gap between pledges and delivery, pointing to the record 37 gigatonnes of energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2022 as evidence that current commitments fall short of the pathway he has laid out. Fossil fuels still account for roughly a third of global energy investment, against the roadmap’s call to approve no new oil and gas projects.

Rather than retreating from that recommendation, Birol has largely held his ground on it publicly, using it as a marker to distinguish the IEA’s pathway from less demanding alternatives, even as it draws criticism from producer states and parts of the industry. What this exposes is the boundary of his influence. Birol can set the benchmark and generate the data that makes non-compliance visible, but he cannot compel a government or a company to act on it. Managing that gap, between the authority he has built through data and the authority he lacks to enforce it, has become a defining feature of how he operates as Executive Director of the IEA.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Birol’s work for the IEA has resulted in an exhaustive roadmap tackling two global concerns: climate change and energy security.

In recent years, the energy sector has proven its volatility through events such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. With intensifying geopolitical consequences on the energy sector, energy security has become an increasingly important topic on the global agenda. 

Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar have lower operating costs than fossil fuels and are less exposed to geopolitical shocks. The IEA reported that recent disruptions to supplies of energy affected more than 200 million households worldwide. Greater investment in renewable energy and more diverse energy systems make households less vulnerable to sudden spikes in energy, electricity and fuel prices caused by events like wars or supply disruptions. 

At the same time, the roadmap has shifted the debate from whether an energy transition is needed to how it can be achieved, step by step.

IE x RAIA Summer Research Programme:

This article is an excerpt from a report on Fatih Birol produced as part of a RAIA research programme on climate leaders. For a full picture of Birol’s climate leadership, including the sources, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs and School of Science and Technology.
Authors: Sofia Hession, Alexandra Björkman & Ariadna Alvarenga
Editor: Roxane de Bergevin
Project Lead: Dario Hasenstab