Name? Isaias Afwerki
Westphalian identity? Eritrean
Age? 80
Why is he in the news? As the conflict in Tigray worsens, Isaias Afwerki, President of Eritrea, severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. Though Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopia against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) during the 2020-2022 civil war, Abiy Ahmed now accuses Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of having supported the TPLF in the fight for the capital of Tigray, Mekelle. On October 1st, Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, which Eritrea reciprocated.
Why do we care? As a landlocked country, Ethiopia claims the right to access the Red Sea. Ethiopia lost its access in 1993 when Eritrea gained independence. Abiy Ahmed stated that access to the Red Sea is critical to its civilization as it provides access to maritime trade routes. Recently, Afwerki expressed concerns that Ethiopia intends to invade to regain access to the Red Sea, threatening to renew conflict between the two nations.
Why should you care? Ethiopia and Eritrea share a long history of border disputes. Following Eritrea’s independence, they fought a border war from 1998 to 2000, but after a period of peace since 2018, the conflict in the Tigray region risks ending it.
Who else cares? President of Egypt, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, cares. Egypt obtains 97% of its water from the Blue Nile, which rises at Lake Tana and supplies most of the Nile’s water. In 2025, Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to generate hydroelectricity for the country. However, it poses an existential threat to Egypt, affecting its water supplies. The tensions with Ethiopia brought el-Sisi and Afwerki closer, making Egypt a key actor regarding Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea.
Any further comments? The Horn is already strained between Sudan’s civil war and the instability in Somalia. The EU and the African Union call for de-escalation to avoid another armed conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, which will further destabilise the region.
