- Aliyev and Pashinyan have replaced military confrontation with sustained negotiations, marking the strongest improvement in bilateral relations since 2023.
- The peace process currently favours Azerbaijan, with Aliyev negotiating from a position of strategic advantage while Pashinyan prioritises normalization to secure Armenia’s long-term stability.
- Unresolved constitutional disputes and decades of historical mistrust continue to threaten the durability of the emerging rapprochement.
Why are Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan Camarades?
Answer: Aliyev and Pashinyan are Camarades because they have replaced military confrontation with sustained diplomatic engagement, despite unresolved political disagreements.
Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan entered a new phase in July 2026 when Aliyev declared that Armenia and Azerbaijan were already living in “real peace,” despite the absence of a formally signed treaty. The statement reflects how relations have shifted from open conflict to negotiations over the final steps of normalization. In March 2025, the two countries announced that negotiations on the text of a draft peace agreement had concluded. Since then, they have continued border delimitation talks, addressed the remaining technical issues, and repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to reaching a comprehensive peace agreement.
Nevertheless, Baku continued to insist that Armenia amend its constitution to remove constitutional references that could be interpreted as territorial claims over Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijani officials pointed to resumed contacts, expanding economic links and continued diplomatic engagement as evidence that bilateral relations had fundamentally shifted.
Aliyev and Pashinyan now interact primarily through diplomacy, marking a fundamental shift from the conflict that previously defined bilateral relations. Although disagreements over constitutional reform, border issues, and the formal signing of the peace treaty remain unresolved, both governments have continued negotiations instead of returning to armed escalation. Their relationship is defined by sustained political engagement, regular dialogue, and a mutual commitment to resolving outstanding disputes peacefully. This consistent pattern of cooperation justifies a Camaraderie ranking, as both leaders continue to prioritize normalization despite unresolved differences.
What does Aliyev want?
Answer: Aliyev wants to consolidate Azerbaijan’s military victory by securing a peace agreement that permanently recognizes the country’s territorial integrity and cements the new regional balance of power.
After Azerbaijan’s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh, Aliyev’s primary objective became securing a political settlement that permanently consolidated these gains. His objective is to secure international recognition of Azerbaijan’s post-war territorial gains, preventing future Armenian territorial claims while establishing Azerbaijan as the dominant political and economic actor in the South Caucasus. A peace agreement would formalise this new regional order. Aliyev insists Armenia amend constitutional references that imply territorial claims over Nagorno-Karabakh before relations can be fully normalised.
Aliyev’s ambitions also extend beyond bilateral relations with Armenia. He wants Azerbaijan’s military victory to redefine the regional balance of power by establishing the country as the South Caucasus’ principal transit, energy, and connectivity hub. A lasting settlement would reopen transport routes across the South Caucasus, strengthening Azerbaijan’s role as a strategic transit corridor linking Europe, Türkiye and Central Asia, and reinforce its position as an important energy supplier. These developments would deepen Azerbaijan’s economic interdependence with regional and international partners, making its post-war influence more difficult to challenge. Ultimately, Aliyev seeks a regional order that cements Azerbaijan as the South Caucasus’ leading political, transit and energy hub.
What does Pashinyan want?
Answer: Pashinyan wants to secure peace to reposition Armenia politically and economically.
Following Armenia’s defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh and the loss of the territory in 2023, Pashinyan’s primary objective has become securing peace that allows Armenia to move beyond decades of conflict and focus on its long-term political and economic development. A durable peace agreement would reduce Armenia’s security vulnerabilities, reopen regional transport routes, and create the conditions necessary for economic growth while allowing Armenia to pursue strategic reorientation toward Europe.
This objective also reflects a significant shift in Armenia’s foreign policy. For much of the post-Soviet period, Armenia relied heavily on Russia as its principal security guarantor. However, Moscow’s limited response during Azerbaijan’s military offensives, particularly in 2023, undermined confidence in that partnership and prompted Pashinyan to diversify Armenia’s external relations. Since then, his government has deepened political and economic cooperation with the European Union while continuing to cautiously manage relations with Russia, recognizing that Armenia remains dependent on Russian energy supplies and trade. Rather than replacing one strategic partner with another immediately, Pashinyan is attempting to expand Armenia’s diplomatic options without provoking unnecessary instability.
The pursuit of peace with Azerbaijan is therefore closely linked to Pashinyan’s broader vision for Armenia’s future. By concluding a peace agreement, reopening borders with both Azerbaijan and Türkiye, and advancing initiatives such as the Crossroads of Peace, he aims to transform Armenia from a landlocked state defined by regional isolation into a regional transit hub connected to emerging Eurasian trade corridors.
At the same time, this strategy requires politically difficult compromises, including constitutional reform and the acceptance of a post-war regional order that remains deeply unpopular among many Armenians. Pashinyan has nevertheless argued that these concessions are necessary to guarantee Armenia’s sovereignty and avoid renewed conflict. His broader objective is to replace decades of conflict-driven politics with a development-oriented foreign policy centered on regional connectivity, economic growth and long-term stability.
What is Aliyev doing?
Answer: Aliyev is using the peace process to reinforce Azerbaijan’s negotiating advantage.
Aliyev has consistently argued that Armenia and Azerbaijan already live in what he describes as “real peace.” His message is clear: the war is over, diplomatic dialogue continues, borders remain largely stable, and economic contacts are gradually expanding. Within this framework, the peace treaty becomes less a mechanism for creating peace than a legal document confirming an existing political reality already established by Azerbaijan’s victory in 2023. This narrative strengthens Baku’s diplomatic position by presenting the current regional order as settled, leaving implementation—not negotiation—as the remaining task. It also shifts the burden onto Armenia, allowing Azerbaijan to argue that delay stems from Yerevan’s unwillingness or inability to formalize realities that already exist.
Aliyev has strategically narrowed the peace process to a single remaining issue: Armenia’s constitution. He has repeatedly maintained that every major element of normalization has already been agreed, including the text of the peace treaty, and that constitutional amendments are the only remaining obstacle to signature. Maintaining this position in public statements and diplomatic engagements allows Aliyev to keep political pressure focused on Yerevan. This approach allows Azerbaijan to portray itself as ready to conclude the agreement while placing responsibility for the remaining delay on Armenia. By concentrating international attention on this specific demand, Azerbaijan has simplified a historically complex conflict into a question of legal consistency.
Aliyev has simultaneously embedded the peace process within Azerbaijan’s broader foreign policy ambitions. His government has accelerated efforts to position the country as a critical energy supplier to Europe, expanded investment in the Middle Corridor connecting Europe and Central Asia, and used high-profile diplomatic initiatives such as hosting COP29 to strengthen Azerbaijan’s international standing. These policies increase Azerbaijan’s geopolitical relevance beyond the peace process, giving Aliyev greater diplomatic leverage by making regional stability and cooperation with Baku increasingly valuable to external partners.
Aliyev has also allowed time to become a source of diplomatic leverage. Armenia continues to debate constitutional reform domestically, international actors increasingly accept the territorial realities established after 2023, and Azerbaijan faces little external pressure to modify its negotiating position. As negotiations progress without major setbacks, Baku’s preferred framework for normalization becomes increasingly accepted, reducing incentives for Azerbaijan to make additional concessions.
What is Pashinyan doing?
Answer: Pashinyan is building support for peace through domestic and foreign policy reforms
Pashinyan has invested considerable political capital in preparing Armenia for a settlement that many Armenians remain reluctant to accept. Through his Real Armenia doctrine, he has argued that Armenia’s future should be built around its internationally recognized borders rather than historical claims or unresolved territorial disputes. This represents a significant departure from the political discourse that dominated Armenia after independence, asking citizens to prioritize the sovereignty and development of Armenia over ambitions linked to Nagorno-Karabakh. By placing peace at the centre of this vision, Pashinyan has sought to build domestic support for compromises that remain politically contentious but that he considers essential for Armenia’s long-term security and stability.
His government has also pursued a gradual reorientation of Armenia’s foreign policy. Relations with Russia have become increasingly strained following Moscow’s limited response during Azerbaijan’s military offensives, prompting Yerevan to expand cooperation with the European Union and strengthen ties with Western partners. Armenia has approved legislation supporting closer European integration, welcomed an expanded EU civilian monitoring mission along its border, and intensified political dialogue with Brussels while continuing to manage its economic relationship with Russia. This balancing strategy reflects an effort to widen Armenia’s diplomatic options without creating new sources of instability.
Peace has simultaneously become a central pillar of Pashinyan’s domestic reform agenda. Through initiatives such as the Crossroads of Peace, his government has promoted regional infrastructure projects, expanded diplomatic engagement with neighbouring states, and incorporated economic connectivity into Armenia’s broader foreign policy agenda. It has also framed the reopening of transport links and the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye as practical policy priorities in official communications and international diplomacy.
These proposals present peace as a tool for attracting investment, reducing regional isolation, and transforming Armenia into a transit country linking Europe and Asia. By embedding these initiatives into government policy, Pashinyan is translating his long-term vision into concrete economic and diplomatic action. Together, they strengthen Armenia’s credibility as a committed partner in the peace process while reinforcing long-term resilience.
Who is winning?
Answer: Aliyev is currently setting the terms of normalization.
Aliyev has been more successful in shaping the trajectory of the peace process. Azerbaijan’s military victory in 2023 fundamentally altered the balance of power, and the negotiations now revolve around priorities consistently advanced by Baku, including constitutional reform, territorial recognition, and the implementation of a settlement largely on terms largely favourable to Azerbaijan. The country’s growing role as an energy supplier and transport hub has further strengthened Aliyev’s diplomatic position, giving Azerbaijan greater regional and international influence as negotiations continue.
Pashinyan’s achievements are measured differently. His success lies in keeping Armenia committed to negotiations while pursuing the politically difficult task of redefining the country’s security doctrine through the Real Armenia vision and reducing Armenia’s reliance on Russia by expanding its foreign policy partnerships. Although Aliyev currently holds the stronger negotiating position, a durable peace will ultimately depend on Pashinyan’s ability to secure domestic support for the compromises required by any final agreement.
